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Atlantic Tropical Action 2011 - Part IV


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9/18 is a terrible cutoff, naso. rita, hugo, wilma, opal, hilda, gracie, hazel, king, 1949 #10, 1948 #8 etc etc etc i don't feel like going further back

the point is that your arbitrary cut off date is silly. yesterday was the climatological peak and there is plenty of time for big storms to form.

Ah good point. I guess I was specifying more towards violent hurricanes (Cat 4 and 5). With the exception of Hugo, Hazel and King...I don't recall any Category 4 or 5 storms after October 1st.

Of course, we could have a low pressure area form in the Caribbean in two weeks, become Tropical Storm Rina, move into the Bay of Campeche, strengthen into a hurricane moving northwest, and make landfall near Corpus Christi as a 120 kt Cat 4 Hurricane Rina. Who the heck knows!

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OK, so when and where is the next *interesting* cyclone forming? Anybody?

And, please note, by "interesting", I mean "not African". I am totally, 100% through with African waves this season. :angry:

.... Does it matter really? :P Every storm has pretty much struggled to get going anywhere .. save for 2 or 3 that got going. :X

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Let's try 2007 for an analog. 15 named storms, 2 major hurricanes with a couple of borderline cat 1's thrown in for good measure. That's as close to an analog as you are going to get, and it was a La Nina year as well.

It is the best year but not a good match. SSTs were so cool that year. Plus you had most of the developments from waves, unlike this year where you had the storms from lots of non-tropical sources as well. 07 was notable for how the end of the season really stunk- we'll see how that continues for the Atlantic in 2011. Still think east Atlantic has a chance by late week for "O", with P in about a week in the western Carib. Disappointing year overall given the SSTAs and the shear anomalies. Hmm.

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9/18 is a terrible cutoff, naso. rita, hugo, wilma, opal, hilda, gracie, hazel, king, 1949 #10, 1948 #8 etc etc etc i don't feel like going further back

the point is that your arbitrary cut off date is silly. yesterday was the climatological peak and there is plenty of time for big storms to form.

If one is strictly IMBY, the Equinox is a good cut off locally, the 1989 barelycane and the almost seven decades ago major not withstanding. Rita came close to challenging the Equinox cutoff, but I guess showed Port Arthur is Equinox plus a few days.

But Hurricane Kate of 1985 gives me hope of board action and possible YouTube excitement until Thanksgiving.

Kate_20_nov_1985_1950Z_N9.jpg

Looks boring in the short term, but I'm a glass full optimist kind of guy.

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Folks,

While many of you may be concentrating on the W. Caribbean, you may want to look much further north. Looking at 1 mb resolution 12Z gfs sfc maps, there is a subtle suggestion of something tropical or subtropical with a weak circulation trying to brew around 30N, 73W Sun evening 9/18 and subsequently drifting westward underneath the big NE high toward the SE coast. This is something probably worth monitoring. This is really the first run actually showing something like this although it is, admittedly, only subtle even on this run. Anyone else notice this? Let's see if future runs show something similar and/or try to develop something further. This is the kind of thing that sometimes occurs underneath big very slow moving NE highs.

Also, I know it is the "Crazy Uncle" as JB calls it (for good reason since it often shows false TC development), but note that the 12Z Mon CMC shows a good bit more than the 12Z GFS as it has a tight sfc low forming already by midday Sat. 9/17, not moving much due to being trapped by the big high/developing over the very warm Gulf Stream, and then finally moving northward to near Cape Lookout on Mon. 9/19 in sort of a Diana of 1984 scenario. The timing is about a day ahead of the 12Z GFS. Let's see what the "King" has to say in a few minutes as this is the kind of thing that sometimes occurs underneath big NE highs.

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I dunno-- a subtropical thing forming at 30N and heading toward E NC just sounds like more fail to me.

With extremely rare exceptions, interesting cyclones don't form at 30N.

Josh,

Yes, for your very high tight core standards it is, admittedly, rare. However, this obviously could still get quite interesting to others. Maybe even you'd end up quite pleased if it were to end up as a very rare Dianalike storm. I guess I'm thinking glass half full.

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12z EURO has some disturbed weather that slides about 200 miles off the Carolina coast around Day 7. Then is hangs around for about 48 hours before it gets pulled back toward the coast. Nothing really well defined but the ridge builds over New England an 850mb low forms in the Eastern Gulf..that could provide a track for something (maybe hybrid) to come back towards the Carolina Coastline.

12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP168.gif

12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP240.gif

12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP240.gif

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Josh,

Yes, for your very high tight core standards it is, admittedly, rare. However, this obviously could still get quite interesting to others. Maybe even you'd end up quite pleased if it were to end up as a very rare Dianalike storm. I guess I'm thinking glass half full.

Yeah, Diana 1984 was totally hawt-- anyone would be happy with that one, I'd think. It's funny-- at the time, I had no idea how rare something like that is.

You are running out of pages again, unless you call one of the storms we have had recently a "good cyclone". On the next thread consider leaving out the comment and we may actually get a "good cyclone".

Hush. :P

I'm going to stand by my call that October, weirdly, is going to be THE month this year for hardcore TC activity in the Atlantic... particularly in the Western Caribbean, though I'm sure we'll have more non-tropical transitions in the NE waters and perhaps one or two sheared dry-airy TCs from Africa.

I'm all for October W-Caribbean hawtness. Some of the basin's best specimens are products of that time and place.

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Josh,

Yes, for your very high tight core standards it is, admittedly, rare. However, this obviously could still get quite interesting to others. Maybe even you'd end up quite pleased if it were to end up as a very rare Dianalike storm. I guess I'm thinking glass half full.

I know what Josh means. While the damage and loss is horrible, from a meteorological standpoint, the intensity and raw energy of extreme hurricanes outweighs the thrill of a weaker one.

There is a difference between

THIS:

151961-hurricane-irene-damage.jpg

vs.

THIS:

Andrew+Damage1.jpg

or

THIS:

graphic_floyd.jpg

vs.

THIS:

081304hurricane_click.gif

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It's not funny to me. It's beautiful. :) And it's also climatologically plausible. :sun:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=09%2F12%2F2011+18UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=200_wnd_ht&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=ATLANTIC&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=8+Day+Loop&areaDesc=Atlantic+region&prevArea=ATLANTIC&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

Yes the riggen H2 ridge over the TX/MX thats been producing all the northerly shear finally breaks down day 8 on the GFS. This makes W carribien and maybe the SRN gulf game for TCs. There is still a crappy Tutt near the Bahamas that will rip apart any east coast bound storms.

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A few runs in a row now of the fantasy GFS show a TC developing in the southern Caribbean and eventually coming up through Florida. We are getting to the time of the season where this is the area to watch for development, Africa may be done for US threats. Would like to see several more runs show the same thing and other models come on board as well, but at least we have a glimmer of hope for something to end the boredom.

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Folks,

The 12Z Tue CMC dropped the little east coast (sub)tropical low that it had yesterday for next week.

However, the 12Z Tue GFS now actually does have a weak sfc low go up the east coast. Could be a fun little area to watch next week prior to the potential W. Caribbean fun, especially for NC to the NE. Possible analog Henri of 1985:

http://weather.unisy...HENRI/track.gif

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Folks,

The 12Z Tue CMC dropped the little east coast (sub)tropical low that it had yesterday for next week.

However, the 12Z Tue GFS now actually does have a weak sfc low go up the east coast. Could be a fun little area to watch next week prior to the potential W. Caribbean fun, especially for NC to the NE. Possible analog Henri of 1985:

http://weather.unisy...HENRI/track.gif

I'm a fan of the Caribbean to Tampa storm post-truncation. Some support from the 0Z NAEFS

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