PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Yellow, Orange, Red, Hurricane... yep its getting close to peak season in the tropics. Indeed... didn't really expect them to put out the yellow for that blob SSE of Katia... but I suppose at some point we have to have a 1999 Emily again (joking, of course). I'm really surprised the BOC isn't an invest yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 It looks like the OV/Tenn valley mega trough/ULL won't lift on time, but the base can be far enough north to not pull whatever forms in the BoC, if it slowly brews, doesn't become large and it stays south of 22N, so a narrow ridge can build to it's north... else it will get pulled N/NE... unfortunately for the TX folks I think future Nate will be either MX or LA east...hopefully I'm wrong. Nothing I have seen in the globals or their ensembles give any hope for optimism. The natural gas lease that borders my back yard is thickly forested, cut out only for roads and wells and equipment. Never thought about wild fire before. It is hard to keep my natural born optimism up with all the trees dead or on fire. But a South Florida major will do a lot to lift my sagging spirits. Nothing against Mexico, but I don't see many excellent YouTubes. Now, Cancun/Cozumel, the tourists help out down there. I know part of Charley was the last Cat 4 to hit the US, but I think population density/affluence helps with quality video. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Opal part II in the Gulf?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Opal part II in the Gulf?? every good season has a NGOM collapser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Opal part II in the Gulf?? If opal was a microcane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Opal part II in the Gulf?? 12Z Euro thinks so- at 114 just S of New Orleans headed NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 6, 2011 Author Share Posted September 6, 2011 Total, awesome hawtness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 If opal was a microcane 12Z UKIE has a low in the GOM also, but keeps it more or less trapped farther south. Bottom line- how the upper low in the OH/TN Valley area evolves will have a lot to say about this- I am now quite confident about development, but have yet to fully buy into it coming north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 every good season has a NGOM collapser I was a junior in HS, but I couldn't believe how fast that ramped up during the day, while near the loop current. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 every good season has a NGOM collapser Pessimist. Glass half full, rapid intensification phase for Opal. ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALLTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM ...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY... HURRICANE OPAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE OCT 03 1995 RECON PLANE INDICATE THAT OPAL IS INCREASING IN FORWARD SPEED... THE PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 948 MB AND THAT WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 100 KNOTS. PLANE REPORTED A PEAK WIND 112 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL. THEREFORE...OPAL IS A NOW A CAT 3 ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL. WITH THE PRESENT ACCELERATION THE HURRICANE SHOULD REACH THE COAST WITHIN 24 HOURS WITHIN THE AREA OF HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED AT 0300 UTC. INITIAL MOTION IS 035/18. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS. AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0300Z 25.3N 89.5W 100 KTS 12HR VT 04/1200Z 27.7N 87.5W 105 KTS 24HR VT 05/0000Z 30.5N 85.5W 105 KTS...INLAND 36HR VT 05/1200Z 33.7N 82.0W 45 KTS...INLAND 48HR VT 06/0000Z 37.5N 78.0W 30 KTS...INLAND 72HR VT 07/0000Z 42.5N 73.0W 25 KTS...INLAND NNNN ZCZC MIAWRKAD2 LOCTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...HURRICANE OPAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED OCT 04 1995 HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND PEAK WINDS OF 152 KNOTS AT 700 MB... AND WE ARE ESTIMATING 130-KT MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS. THE EYE HAD REPORTEDLY SHRUNK TO 7 N MI IN DIAMETER...INDICATING THAT OPAL IS PROBABLY NEAR THE END OF AN EYEWALL CONTRACTION. IT IS VERY RARE FOR HURRICANES TO MAINTAIN SUCH A SMALL EYE FOR VERY LONG...AND SOME FLUCTUATIONSIN STRENGTH WILL LIKELY OCCUR DUE TO EYEWALL CYCLES. HOWEVER OPAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A DANGEROUS CAT 4 HURRICANE UP TO LANDFALL. EVEN THOUGH THE GREATEST IMPACT OF OPAL WILL BE ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST... THE RAPID FORWARD MOTION WILL ALLOW DAMAGING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO PENETRATE WELL INLAND. HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BE ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES WHERE APPROPRIATE. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/19...AND A LITTLE FURTHER ACCELERATION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT ALONG BASICALLY THE SAME PATH. THIS IS IN BETWEEN THE GFDL AND DEEP-LAYER BAM...BUT CLOSER TO THE GFDL IN SPEED. IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK...GIVEN THE LARGE EXTENT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND STORM SURGE. PREPARATIONS OVER THE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. PASCH/MAYFIELD FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0900Z 26.4N 89.2W 105 KTS 12HR VT 04/1800Z 28.7N 88.0W 115 KTS 24HR VT 05/0600Z 31.5N 87.0W 90 KTS...INLAND 36HR VT 05/1800Z 34.5N 86.0W 50 KTS...INLAND 48HR VT 06/0600Z 37.0N 84.5W 40 KTS...INLAND 72HR VT 07/0600Z 47.0N 73.0W 30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 I was a junior in HS, but I couldn't believe how fast that ramped up during the day, while near the loop current. It was my first time I remember being remnant'ed...yucky october deluge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 6, 2011 Author Share Posted September 6, 2011 I was a junior in HS, but I couldn't believe how fast that ramped up during the day, while near the loop current. Yep, it was a shocker. I was home from work because it happened on Yom Kippur, and it was like, "Omg!!1!" I remember that the NHC advisory had a special request-- to warn Jewish neighbors of the coming storm, since it ramped up and accelerated so fast toward the coast on a day when Jooz don't use electricity and wouldn't have the TV on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 When I lived in GA Opal was the big storm...everyone in the Atlanta area seemed to have a scary wind story...a lot like Hugo was with the Charlotte crowd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 From left to right... GFS-CMC-UK-ECMWF... damn you weak steering currents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Is this just an Op. thing or some ensembles trying to take this on as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 I love it when the Euro becomes the eastern most solution, and the GFS becomes the western most. Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al962011.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201109061850 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END AL, 96, 2011090618, , BEST, 0, 206N, 938W, 25, 1008, DB, 34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 The 12Z fantasy GFS is quite entertaining after 240 hours..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 With the formation of Nate, these are the following names left on the 21-name list: Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 With the formation of Nate, these are the following names left on the 21-name list: Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney Look for this one to be a monster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Look for this one to be a monster Most active seasons have a big August storm and a big September storm. Examples: 2003 Aug: Fabian Sept: Isabel 2004 Aug: Charley/Frances Sept: Ivan/Jeanne 2005 Aug: Katrina Sept: Rita 2007 Aug: Dean Sept: Felix 2008 Aug: Gustav Sept: Ike 2010 Aug: Earl Sept: Igor/Karl 2011 Aug: Irene Sept?? At this rate, I'd guess Hurricane Philippe or Hurricane Rina would be a biggie for September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 At this rate, I'd guess Hurricane Philippe or Hurricane Rina would be a biggie for September. Please no. That has to be one of the worst name replacements I have ever seen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gil888 Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Maybe Alpha will be the big one! Seems like it is getting close to a given that we will get the rest of the names, with half of the season to go, a warm Atlantic and a developing La Nina. October might be quite a fun month as well.... ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Maybe Alpha will be the big one! Seems like it is getting close to a given that we will get the rest of the names, with half of the season to go, a warm Atlantic and a developing La Nina. October might be quite a fun month as well.... ??? i love it when you weenie out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Honestly getting to the Greek Alphabet is certainly a possibility. We made it to T last year, and we are currently 6 named storms ahead of 2010. In fact, we are only one storm behind 2005 right now, and if things continue to remain active, we could theoretically reach the P named storm before 2005 did (Philippe 2005 developed on September 17th). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Still have hopes for Florida action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 8, 2011 Author Share Posted September 8, 2011 Maybe Alpha will be the big one! Seems like it is getting close to a given that we will get the rest of the names, with half of the season to go, a warm Atlantic and a developing La Nina. October might be quite a fun month as well.... ??? I totally dig October. A lot of my of my all-time favorite 'canes were October ones: King 1950, Hazel 1954, Hattie 1961, Joan 1988, Iris 2001 (), and of course Wilma 2005. Lots of great treausres from the tenth month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Maybe Alpha will be the big one! Seems like it is getting close to a given that we will get the rest of the names, with half of the season to go, a warm Atlantic and a developing La Nina. October might be quite a fun month as well.... ??? Throw in a good divergence spike too early-mid October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gil888 Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 i love it when you weenie out LOL just being realistic. It would be nice to have some hurricanes along with these storms though. The Atlantic season isn't even above the Mendoza line in percentage of storms to make hurricanes yet. Yuck. The one difference to 2010 is that the storms sure did like the deep tropics more that year. 2011 has had them everywhere from all types of developments. Hard to find many analogs really. October has a bunch of things going for it. La Nina emerging. Shear anomalies being the lowest below average in the Caribbean so far. Really warm waters. Low-level westerly anomalies. The crystal ball is hazy still on exactly when, but I can see us being set up for a memorable end of the year. A lot of that variability is so random though. 2010 early anomalies were just as good, if not better than this year, yet no majors in the Carib for October (of course there were many many hurricanes). 3 storm outbreak and the board seems pretty quiet. I guess if it isn't headed toward the US immediately it is a big ho-hum lol. If there are any complaints, just remember to send them to the eastern Pacific! Talk about a shutdown! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gil888 Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 I totally dig October. A lot of my of my all-time favorite 'canes were October ones: King 1950, Hazel 1954, Hattie 1961, Joan 1988, Iris 2001 (), and of course Wilma 2005. Lots of great treausres from the tenth month. I have always preferred the longer tracks, but October sure packs a mean wallop if the conditions are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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