phil882 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Fingers crossed. I know it's the wrong thread, but what do you think Re: 95L? Might that be a good prospect? I'm not ready to surrender such a fine specimen to another Northeast sloppicane. The mid-level ridge to the north of it is suppose to remain strong for the next 48-72 hours, so its unlikely it will be able to gain much latitude over the next few days unless it becomes significantly stronger than forecasted in the global models. I think its more likely than not that 95L will remain below 20N before reaching the Lesser Antilles. Thinks become a lot more uncertain beyond that, however. PS. Josh... the latest 12z ECWMF is suggesting a potential microcane in the GOM beyond 120 hours. Very rare for a global model to be able to discern such an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 5, 2011 Author Share Posted September 5, 2011 you sound like scorpion Sorry-- number of named storms really isn't a yardstick for me when it comes to saying, "Wow-- that was an awesome season." We're not even at the climo peak yet so there's plenty of time for things to turnaround and for us to see some real cyclones. Also, I'm always a big believer in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 So the Euro and GFS somewhat agree re: Western Gulf feature... While they agree on the general feature, the ECWMF has a far more favorable upper level pattern over the Gulf feature, while the GFS maintains westerlies in place preventing development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 5, 2011 Author Share Posted September 5, 2011 The mid-level ridge to the north of it is suppose to remain strong for the next 48-72 hours, so its unlikely it will be able to gain much latitude over the next few days unless it becomes significantly stronger than forecasted in the global models. I think its more likely than not that 95L will remain below 20N before reaching the Lesser Antilles. Thinks become a lot more uncertain beyond that, however. PS. Josh... the latest 12z ECWMF is suggesting a potential microcane in the GOM beyond 120 hours. Very rare for a global model to be able to discern such an event. Thanks. I'm definitely keeping an eye on it. That graphic you posted last night (00Z Euro) really caught my eye-- showing a tight micro near Tampico. Jorge would like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 While they agree on the general feature, the ECWMF has a far more favorable upper level pattern over the Gulf feature, while the GFS maintains westerlies in place preventing development. Thanks. I'm definitely keeping an eye on it. That graphic you posted last night (00Z Euro) really caught my eye-- showing a tight micro near Tampico. Jorge would like that. Beyond 168 hours, it looks like the upper level trough (the one associated with Lee) finally dips down far enough into the Gulf and starts to effect the feature. Considering how small and fragile it is, I don't think this will be a very favorable trough interaction and it might lead to a very quick demise. Still though the first 72-144 hours are quite interesting, as that should be ample time to get the feature to spin up into something impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Sorry-- number of named storms really isn't a yardstick for me when it comes to saying, "Wow-- that was an awesome season." We're not even at the climo peak yet so there's plenty of time for things to turnaround and for us to see some real cyclones. Also, I'm always a big believer in October. Think of it as most of the OHC across the Caribbean and GOM hasn't really been wasted yet, and all we need is one monster in peak season to change all of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 5, 2011 Author Share Posted September 5, 2011 Beyond 168 hours, it looks like the upper level trough (the one associated with Lee) finally dips down far enough into the Gulf and starts to effect the feature. Considering how small and fragile it is, I don't think this will be a very favorable trough interaction and it might lead to a very quick demise. Still though the first 72-144 hours are quite interesting, as that should be ample time to get the feature to spin up into something impressive. Well, for small Gulf spinups, even 120 hr is an eternity-- these features tend to evolve quickly and make their moves without an hour wasted-- so I'm not too worried about the 168-hr timeframe. Think of it as most of the OHC across the Caribbean and GOM hasn't really been wasted yet, and all we need is one monster in peak season to change all of that Ha ha, that's a good way of looking at it. I don't think Lee did too much damage in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 (95L is off the SC/NC coast) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 (95L is off the SC/NC coast) Actually, that is really similar to what the 12z GFS has at that time frame as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 5, 2011 Author Share Posted September 5, 2011 (95L is off the SC/NC coast) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 The key feature will be the massive trough/upper low over the Tennessee valley (the one that sucked Lee). With heights rising in Sern Canada/Nern Plains, and the trough detaching from the westerly flow, it will take a relatively long time to lift and favor height rises that favor landfalls/shearless environments. The GOM thing will have to stay relatively far south for a long time so that the trough lifts, otherwise a sheared disturbance is highly probabe aimed at the GOM coast of FL. Needless to say, it would also affect 95L track if it stays put 7+ days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bannor Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Ugh, so sick of the recurve thing already. Would be awesome to have a nice, W-moving Caribbean Cruiser this time around-- like, the real deal. Fond memories Josh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 I can personally verify Lee and offshore flow have significantly reduced SSTs/OHC NW Gulf, but still enough for some major action, especially Louisiana or South Texas. Things looking awfully dim for the parts of Texas that could use tropical action, but the annoying OV trough seems to be losing amplitude towards day 10 Euro and its ensembles, so I remain glass 1/512th optimistic of rain before every last tree dies or burns (from the Gulf), and about that optimistic of an EPAC Rosa scenario. That Day 10 Euro looks gives glass eight full optimism on YouTube worthy storm action in Mexico. If, as said, a sheared system doesn't get pulled into Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Looks like the GFS is starting to catch on to the favorable upper level pattern expected in the Bay of Campeche. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Looks like the GFS is starting to catch on to the favorable upper level pattern expected in the Bay of Campeche. Yep, it looks similar to the Euro... but I'm wary of weak steering currents and models... you know what they say "Once bitten, twice shy". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 6, 2011 Author Share Posted September 6, 2011 A small ray o' hope on this cold, dreary Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Interesting... the GFS And ECWMF have literally done a 180 from one another. The ECWMF takes this Bay of Campeche disturbance northward to the Florida Panhandle, while the GFS is straight into Tampico, MX. It was literally the opposite during the 00z runs yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Lemon in the Gulf... CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAVE INCREASED IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Interesting... the GFS And ECWMF have literally done a 180 from one another. The ECWMF takes this Bay of Campeche disturbance northward to the Florida Panhandle, while the GFS is straight into Tampico, MX. It was literally the opposite during the 00z runs yesterday. It looks like the OV/Tenn valley mega trough/ULL won't lift on time, but the base can be far enough north to not pull whatever forms in the BoC, if it slowly brews, doesn't become large and it stays south of 22N, so a narrow ridge can build to it's north... else it will get pulled N/NE... unfortunately for the TX folks I think future Nate will be either MX or LA east...hopefully I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 It looks like the OV/Tenn valley mega trough/ULL won't lift on time, but the base can be far enough north to not pull whatever forms in the BoC, if it slowly brews, doesn't become large and it stays south of 22N, so a narrow ridge can build to it's north... else it will get pulled N/NE... unfortunately for the TX folks I think future Nate will be either MX or LA east...hopefully I'm wrong. Yep... the cutoff low is just too far to the east to allow this thing to get sucked NW. I'm personally rooting for the narrow ridge to develop, because we would end up with a far stronger system if this solution verifies rather than the quickly transition to extra-tropical feature if it is picked up by the cutoff low. I honestly don't know at this time which solution is correct, or even which way I'm leaning. The GFS was correct with Lee being picked up by the trough last week, but this feature is expected to be far smaller and further south. Hopefully we will get some sort of agreement as this storm approaches genesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Yep... the cutoff low is just too far to the east to allow this thing to get sucked NW. I'm personally rooting for the narrow ridge to develop, because we would end up with a far stronger system if this solution verifies rather than the quickly transition to extra-tropical feature if it is picked up by the cutoff low. I honestly don't know at this time which solution is correct, or even which way I'm leaning. The GFS was correct with Lee being picked up by the trough last week, but this feature is expected to be far smaller and further south. Hopefully we will get some sort of agreement as this storm approaches genesis. Yeah, I agree with your reasoning that a W/WNW system would be far stronger than a N/NE moving one... also, apart from shear/transitioning stuff, Lee did a number with SSTs east of 93W, and now the highest SSTs are along the path the GFS wants to take the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Yeah, I agree with your reasoning that a W/WNW system would be far stronger than a N/NE moving one... also, apart from shear/transitioning stuff, Lee did a number with SSTs east of 93W, and now the highest SSTs are along the path the GFS wants to take the system. Ugh... no kidding. Stupid Monsoonal Low's screwing up SSTs. Lets keep this thing in the Bay of Campeche. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 lol at all this SST talk in the Gulf. The Gulf will support a storm for a while yet. It's the darn Continental dry airmass that is a bigger concern. Meanwhile, Karl part deux... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Ugh... no kidding. Stupid Monsoonal Low's screwing up SSTs. Lets keep this thing in the Bay of Campeche. One caveat with the W moving cyclone... it would probably be moving very slowly, and the mountains S of 20N are very close to the coast... downsloping winds could be detrimental to expect a strong landfall in that case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 lol at all this SST talk in the Gulf. The Gulf will support a storm for a while yet. It's the darn Continental dry airmass that is a bigger concern. Meanwhile, Karl part deux... We are not looking for a storm... we are talking about the prospect of a major ... 28C may support a major, but 30C are usually better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 We are not looking for a storm... we are talking about the prospect of a major ... 28C may support a major, but 30C are usually better. Oh. So you've become a size and strength snob too. I'll take my chances with the Caribbean delivering before all is said and done... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 We are not looking for a storm... we are talking about the prospect of a major ... 28C may support a major, but 30C are usually better. Yep... I'm ok with the prospect of a small, slow moving Bay of Campeche storm in 31 degree Celsius water under a perfect upper level environment. That is what the 12z GFS depicts, and it will be hard not to get excited if the 12z ECWMF agrees as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Oh. So you've become a size and strength snob too. I'll take my chances with the Caribbean delivering before all is said and done... Size not so much... but in this case, the smaller the better. Strength-wise, who isnt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Yellow, Orange, Red, Hurricane... yep its getting close to peak season in the tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Surprised no one mentioned the 0z Euro from that lemon in the BOC: 114hrs: 126hrs: 132hrs: Verbatim, looks like a TS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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