Ed Lizard Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Be happy with your 0.03", your wife is. :hurrbear: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 This only season 2 of the Ed Lizard show for me, but I have noticed that he gets super annoying in September as the end of the Texas cane season starts to loom. I'm sorry. If I were guaranteed a rocking Fall severe season, I'd chillax. (Jermoe Gray hasn't aged a day in 20 years... ) And a good Florida landfall will do much to soothe raw nerves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big O Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Based on the progged solution shown below, where would the system in the Carribean head? Toward central and eastern GOM or western GOM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Based on the progged solution shown below, where would the system in the Carribean head? Toward central and eastern GOM or western GOM? Where are located at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 HPC afternoon discussion re: potential Gulf disturbance... FINALLY OVER THE GULF THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER TROPICAL FEATURE...ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT GEFS ENSEMBLES AND SOME OTHER WEAKER GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF. CURRENTLY WILL MAINTAIN A SPOT LOW THAT EMERGES FROM THE SWRN GULF IN ABOUT A WEEK AS PER TODAYS COORDINATION WITH NHC. THE 06/12Z GFS HAVE TRENDED MUCH FARTHER SW ACROSS THE REGION COMPARED TO THE 00Z GFS RUN AND NOW MORE CLOSELY MATCHES THE ECMWF AND OUR PROG POSITIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 There is some chatter from Gulf Coastal NWS offices this afternoon regarding the possible Gulf feature: Tallahasse: THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRIDAY AND LIFTS IT INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OVER THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. THE EURO ALSO SHOWS POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE SAME REGION BUT KEEPS IT SUPPRESSED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE YUCATAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL USE THE EURO SOLUTION FOR NOW. Houston/Galveston: THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE DEVELOPED A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE IN THE WEEK...THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS STRENGTHEN THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF RUN DOES NOT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WOULD LIKELY KEEP THIS SYSTEM FROM APPROACHING SOUTHEAST TEXAS BUT IT IS A GOOD REMINDER THAT THE TROPICS REMAIN ACTIVE AS WE APPROACH THE STATISTICAL PEAK OF HURRICANE SEASON NEXT WEEK. Corpus Christi: THE ONLY ITEM TO NOTE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS SEVERAL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEVELOP A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT LEAST BY THURSDAY. BUT UPPER PATTERN IS SUCH THAT SYSTEM WOULD ONLY DRIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AND BE WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY SUNDAY. Brownsville: THE TAIL END OF THE MONDAY FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH DOWN INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF... WHERE THE GFS IS HINTING AT THE SPIN UP OF A LOW PRESSURE AREA... WHICH MAY DEEPEN SOMEWHAT RIGHT AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM...BUT THE POTENTIAL EFFECTS FARTHER IN THE FUTURE WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 4, 2011 Author Share Posted September 4, 2011 Thanks for the great discussion roundup, Steve-- it's awesome to have it all in one place. It's encouraging t read-- although I'll point out that Bay of Campeche systems, like African ones, tend to disappoint. That having been said, at least je letdown happens after two days, rather than two weeks. And what about that Caribbean feature? That looks vaguely interestin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Sorry for the delay, Josh. I keep losing power. We have some very gusty winds and wildfires breaking out all across TX from the Austin area on E. The euro ensembles like the 'Carla cradle' in the longer range. We will see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 The thing near 10N/28W looks surprisingly good right now. I'm tempted to write this off as one of a couple dozen ITCZ disturbances over the course of a season that look good on satellite, only to lack any real low-level vorticity. However, it appears that some low-level vorticity is trying to get going on the shortwave IR, and the convection is pretty concentrated and not sprawled out zonally along the ITCZ. Also, the GFS shows some intensification of this feature, although not quite to TC status over the next couple days, although the vort max appears to be initialized a couple degrees too far north. If this indeed stays farther south, it will remain embedded in a moist low-shear environment that will be favorable for slow development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 The thing near 10N/28W looks surprisingly good right now. I'm tempted to write this off as one of a couple dozen ITCZ disturbances over the course of a season that look good on satellite, only to lack any real low-level vorticity. However, it appears that some low-level vorticity is trying to get going on the shortwave IR, and the convection is pretty concentrated and not sprawled out zonally along the ITCZ. Also, the GFS shows some intensification of this feature, although not quite to TC status over the next couple days, although the vort max appears to be initialized a couple degrees too far north. If this indeed stays farther south, it will remain embedded in a moist low-shear environment that will be favorable for slow development. I was just about to mention this.. an interesting little feature for sure. This also seems to be the same feature that the 12z ECWMF was keying on earlier today with the potential to become a system down the road in the Caribbean. This thing is certainly worth keeping an eye on, because the ECWMF shows the mid-level ridge intensifying in the Atlantic behind Katia over the next 2-3 days, so this would likely continue westward and not gain too much latitude. With the westerlies displaced so far north right now, a further south solution seems likely to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 5, 2011 Author Share Posted September 5, 2011 Wow, guys-- that disturbance looks awesome! And I love how far S it is. I'm going to keep an eye on it. Perhaps this can be the payback after this string if disappointments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Wow, guys-- that disturbance looks awesome! And I love how far S it is. I'm going to keep an eye on it. Perhaps this can be the payback after this string if disappointments. The ECWMF has it at 144 hours on the latest 00z run... certainly looks interesting as long as it can avoid good old Hispaniola. There is also an interesting feature in the Gulf of Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Interesting to watch the evolution with the system that 00z ECWMF has in the Gulf of Mexico... it seems that a area of convection from Lee has broken off and is already located in the central Gulf of Mexico. This feature is very well modeled on the ECWMF and is expected to continue to drop southward and start interacting with the diurnal convection that occurs near the southern coast of Mexico. From here a circulation spins up, presumably small according to the ECWMF and then drifts northward into the gulf as the weakness associated with the 500mb trough part of the remnants of Lee prevents the formation of a stronger ridge. By day 5-6, the trough starts to shift further west which will allow just enough ridging to steer the system slowly westward towards the coast of Mexico. The GFS has this same feature being drawn up to the northeast as it gets caught up in the trough axis and accelerates towards a landfall near the Florida Panhandle. Which one is right? Well going off history, the ECWMF also tried to take Lee westward and failed to be correct. However, the thing this system might have going for it is lower latitude, and much smaller size, which means it would take a deeper and likely stronger trough to pick this system up. Intensity wise I think its worth keeping an eye on this feature. the ECWMF projects very favorable 200mb winds over the system, as the westerly upper level flow associated with the trough to the north don't make it beyond the Northern Gulf of Mexico. This coupled with the small size of the potential circulation and very warm water temperatures make me much more concerned that this could get significantly stronger than Lee ever was. However, its not really worth speculating considering the time frame out. This does not have Lee's monsoonal burden though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bannor Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al952011.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201109051016 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 5, 2011 Author Share Posted September 5, 2011 Awesome. I have high hopes for this one, given its look, latitude, heading, modeling, and timing (peak season). Can't wait to see the usual crop of model runs on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Awesome. I have high hopes for this one, given its look, latitude, heading, modeling, and timing (peak season). Can't wait to see the usual crop of model runs on this one. The current heading of ~270 degrees is definitely much better than the ~293 degrees of Katia for the same area for those who desire later U.S. action. Based on the database of 79 TC's in this area, nothing with a heading of 281+ degrees later hit the CONUS whereas a whopping 50% with a heading of 270 deg. or lower later hit and the average furthest west they got was all the way to 72W (over 60% made it past 70W). Unfortunately for predictive purposes, this data was based on only actual TC's. Since 95L isn't yet a TC near the longitude that was analyzed, the data can't be explicitly used to establish probabilities of how far west it will ultimately go. However, the general heading idea could seemingly be kept in mind as somewhat of a positive factor for those who prefer it get pretty far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Awesome. I have high hopes for this one, given its look, latitude, heading, modeling, and timing (peak season). Can't wait to see the usual crop of model runs on this one. Being that this disturbance is likely about 10 days away from the Caribbean or Bahamas we would be right at peak season at that point. This was a nice looking wave when over Africa and kind of slipped off the coast without much mention due to Katia I guess. Tis the season and for that alone should make this an interesting watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 The general 'feeling' from various NWS morning discussions is a cautious approach regarding the potential Bay of Campeche feature that the models are sniffing out. With the Euro now onboard, some credence is given re: TC genesis and the more likely track would be NE into Florida with the synoptic pattern that is progged. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 That little area of convection in the Gulf keeps plugging along southward, outflow boundary notwithstanding. I'm just going to document it and see if it does have any sort of influence on the expected vorticity that will start developing in the Bay of Campeche. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 12Z GFS has 95L eventually recurving and hitting New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Re: the possible future BoC disturbance. I'm bullish with cyclogenesis given the models are liking it, the time of the year, and the area which is progged to bloom is one of the best areas for enhanced vorticity in the basin. Yes, this area tends to dissapoint, but most of the time is because the little time over water and land interaction issues, but steering currents are forecasted to be weak, so time will probably be a non issue, though land interaction can still be one. About track... will the trough with base on the N GOM lift far enough north so that heights build and send this disturbance W/NW or will it linger longer and eventually hook this up N/NE?... that's the big question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 5, 2011 Author Share Posted September 5, 2011 12Z GFS has 95L eventually recurving and hitting New England. Ugh, so sick of the recurve thing already. Would be awesome to have a nice, W-moving Caribbean Cruiser this time around-- like, the real deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 BTW, I'm liking the prospect of 2011 becoming the 2nd busiest hurricane season on record wrt to NS, surpassing 1933 when everything is said and done... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Ugh, so sick of the recurve thing already. Would be awesome to have a nice, W-moving Caribbean Cruiser this time around-- like, the real deal. Can't we have cyclogenesis around 11N 55W sometime? Those usually become beasts this time of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 BTW, I'm liking the prospect of 2011 becoming the 2nd busiest hurricane season on record wrt to NS, surpassing 1933 when everything is said and done... one of these better be a top-5 all time disaster or else no one will care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 5, 2011 Author Share Posted September 5, 2011 Can't we have cyclogenesis around 11N 55W sometime? Those usually become beasts this time of the season. Fingers crossed. I know it's the wrong thread, but what do you think Re: 95L? Might that be a good prospect? I'm not ready to surrender such a fine specimen to another Northeast sloppicane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Re: the possible future BoC disturbance. I'm bullish with cyclogenesis given the models are liking it, the time of the year, and the area which is progged to bloom is one of the best areas for enhanced vorticity in the basin. Yes, this area tends to dissapoint, but most of the time is because the little time over water and land interaction issues, but steering currents are forecasted to be weak, so time will probably be a non issue, though land interaction can still be one. About track... will the trough with base on the N GOM lift far enough north so that heights build and send this disturbance W/NW or will it linger longer and eventually hook this up N/NE?... that's the big question. Yep, that's the big question. The thing has has me more intrigued was the 00z ECWMF showing this feature staying in the southern GOM in a very favorable upper level environment and maintaining a small size. These are the types of systems in the Gulf that tend to wrap up in a hurry. Think like Karl last year. BTW, I'm liking the prospect of 2011 becoming the 2nd busiest hurricane season on record wrt to NS, surpassing 1933 when everything is said and done... I'm increasingly looking in that direction as well. We are well ahead of last year, and that was tied for third with 1995. 2005 is the only season that is ahead of us right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 5, 2011 Author Share Posted September 5, 2011 Despite the busy-ness of the season, it's really been in the toilet quality-wise. Even Irene barely made it to 100 kt. I'd rather have a season with seven really solid events than the torrent of complete crap we've had this year. I can't even remember most of the cyclones that have already happened. Not trying to be negative-- just sayin'... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Despite the busy-ness of the season, it's really been in the toilet quality-wise. Even Irene barely made it to 100 kt. I'd rather have a season with seven really solid events than the torrent of complete crap we've had this year. I can't even remember most of the one's that have already happened. Not trying to be negative-- just sayin'... you sound like scorpion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 So the Euro and GFS somewhat agree re: Western Gulf feature... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.