Ed Lizard Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Nothing obvious in the pipeline, but the 10 day ensemble seems possibly favorable for a variety of solutions, a Tampico Terror, a Penscola Pounder or even a Tampa Trouncer. I'm feeling a little better, GFS gets almost a quarter an inch of rain at my lawn from Lee, and in a drought that has us drier in 2011 than Death Valley, beggars can't be choosers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 12Z Euro has a pretty good tropical wave in the Caribbean at 240 hours, well south of Hispaniola. Maybe we can squeeze an decent system post- Lee/Katia despits the increasingly unfavorable MJO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Well, I'm disappointed that apparently the tropics won't impact the drought this year, and that many even older taller trees have died, and many more will die. But as a natural optimist, I will say SE Texas had a tropical season. Second power blinkage, and winds are gusting in excess of 30 mph by my visual estimates looking at the trees. Fast moving fair weather cu overhead and I can see the cirrus canopy, the edge almost overhead. The winds reminds me of less than 24 hours before Hurricane Ike made landfall. I will claim this as my 2011 Tropical Season experience. No rain, unlike Don, with its arcus clouds generating storms as they moved over land in the afternoons, but total experience, including power failures, this is my 2011 storm. Just checked, IAH gusting to 36 mph, my calibrated eyeballs work pretty well. I'm still at least a week away from completely giving up and depending on a once every 40 years October storm for real tropical action. 2011 will probably be more of a blow up doll tropical season here than a real season, but I remain glass 1/1024th optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 it's 9/3, not 11/3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 it's 9/3, not 11/3 He hasn't seen the super secret 57 update. Let him think what he wants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 He hasn't seen the super secret 57 update. Let him think what he wants. my jaw hit the floor when i saw that 57 upped his call to 25 storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 my jaw hit the floor when i saw that 57 upped his call to 25 storms Sarcasm will get you everywhere. Or not. Third power blinkage as winds continue to blow over 20 and gust as high as 36 mph. I think I can actually see the edge of the rain on the far Eastern sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 He hasn't seen the super secret 57 update. Let him think what he wants. Keep posting NAM and Nogaps and Canadian runs, someday one will verify. A good hurricane to take out all the drought killed trees, might be better than the alternative, wildfire for clearing the land for new growth. My house will stand up to sustained Cat 1 winds. Pretty thick trees in parts of the gas lease just beyond my fence line. Just don't see it this year. But it was pointed out the approx. 40 year return frequency on October canes, and we're halfway through that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gil888 Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 I have a hard time believing there is going to be much of a break behind Katia. MJO stays neural/favorable, with the eastern pacific looking highly sheared and all sorts of low-level westerly wind anomalies. Most of the time, that points to active Atlantic. September is magical anyways-- things you never imagined developing can really blossom, despite the models. I just hope we see Alpha this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 4, 2011 Author Share Posted September 4, 2011 I have a hard time believing there is going to be much of a break behind Katia. MJO stays neural/favorable, with the eastern pacific looking highly sheared and all sorts of low-level westerly wind anomalies. Most of the time, that points to active Atlantic. September is magical anyways-- things you never imagined developing can really blossom, despite the models. I just hope we see Alpha this year... This is just the post I needed to read today. After the letdown of Irene, the fishiness of Katia, and the crappiness of Lee, I just needed a ray of light in all this darkness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 The 00Z fantasy GFS is great- has two Gulf TCs from days 7-16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 The 00Z fantasy GFS is great- has two Gulf TCs from days 7-16. I'm not sure about the first feature... but the second feature traveling from the Atlantic has also been modeled by the ECWMF on the 12z run, so that places a little more confidence in that feature. There have been hints though that the Gulf will remain unsettled beyond Lee, with higher than normal amounts of vorticity also observed on the 12z ECWMF, although it doesn't explicitly spin up into anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 I'm not sure about the first feature... but the second feature traveling from the Atlantic has also been modeled by the ECWMF on the 12z run, so that places a little more confidence in that feature. There have been hints though that the Gulf will remain unsettled beyond Lee, with higher than normal amounts of vorticity also observed on the 12z ECWMF, although it doesn't explicitly spin up into anything. Scratch That... latest 00z ECWMF does have the same feature observed from the Gulf of Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 HPC Morning Update re: Gulf development later this week/early next week... FINALLY OVER THE GULF THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER TROPICAL FEATURE...ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT GEFS ENSEMBLES AND SOME OTHER WEAKER GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF. CURRENTLY WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK SPOT LOW IN THE SWRN GULF AS PER YDAYS COORDINATION. THE 06Z GFS HAS AT LEAST HELD/TRENDED MUCH FARTHER SW ACROSS THE REGION COMPARED TO THE 00Z GFS RUN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 The GFS seems to love the gulf. It not only develops another system in the gulf later in the week but then brings something from the Caribbean into the Gulf late in teh forecast period. Maybe one of them will eventually get into Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 The GFS seems to love the gulf. It not only develops another system in the gulf later in the week but then brings something from the Caribbean into the Gulf late in teh forecast period. Maybe one of them will eventually get into Texas. You're an even bigger optimist than I am. After the 0.03 inches with Lee, even I have to struggle to maintain my natural born optimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 The GFS seems to love the gulf. It not only develops another system in the gulf later in the week but then brings something from the Caribbean into the Gulf late in teh forecast period. Maybe one of them will eventually get into Texas. That it does, Wes. Who knows? Maybe a future Nate forming in the 'Carla Cradle' can at least give us a chance. But I tend to not be such an IMBY tropical poster when it comes to these things as others around here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 But I tend to not be such an IMBY tropical poster when it comes to these things as others around here... This only season 2 of the Ed Lizard show for me, but I have noticed that he gets super annoying in September as the end of the Texas cane season starts to loom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 You're an even bigger optimist than I am. After the 0.03 inches with Lee, even I have to struggle to maintain my natural born optimism. Be happy with your 0.03", your wife is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Be happy with your 0.03", your wife is. o no u di'int Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 On this date in 1930, a powerful 155mph hurricane hit the DR with a Josh-friendly 8 mile RMW. Check out the Shredderola action on this one: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 On this date in 1930, a powerful 155mph hurricane hit the DR with a Josh-friendly 8 mile RMW. Check out the Shredderola action on this one: Right over the most mountainous part of shredderola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Heh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 microcane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 4, 2011 Author Share Posted September 4, 2011 Heh... When was the last time we had a solid, tight, peak-season 'cane in the Gulf like that? Seems like ages. (The 2008 junk doesn't count.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 sprinkles for ed http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/20110904/12/gfs_namer_228_precip_p60.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 sprinkles for ed http://mag.ncep.noaa..._precip_p60.gif Maybe the Canadian can offer him some hope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 He'd still need to get rid of the massive upper low over western Ky that is supplying northwesterly flow over Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 He'd still need to get rid of the massive upper low over western Ky that is supplying northwesterly flow over Texas. No doubt. We're having a bit of fun at Ed's expensive, but a NE track along the frontal boundary would tend to be the more correct solution, if we see TC genesis in the BoC, IMO. The 00Z Euro kept nothing but an area of weak low pressure scooting toward FL. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 No doubt. We're having a bit of fun at Ed's expensive, but a NE track along the frontal boundary would tend to be the more correct solution, if we see TC genesis in the BoC, IMO. The 00Z Euro kept nothing but an area of weak low pressure scooting toward FL. We will see. We are having fun with Ed. I'd personally rather see a weak storm head for Florida as southern Florida also needs rain (at least my favorite lake does) but I do feel sorry for the folks in Texas. You guys really, really need the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.