Ian Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 It appears eager to get raped by shrederola. @ Hr114 lokos pretty much ilke the last run maybe a touch stronger by 132 hitting eastern hispaniola. lol.. panel by panel d10+ threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 All four runs on Monday showed it. All four runs on Tuesday showed it and both runs this morning showed it. Is my math off? This run makes it 11 if it shows up. By my count, Mapgirl looks foolish now with the trolling. I actually wasn't trolling. The way you came into the thread and annouced it was now 10 made it seem you have seen the run early, hence the question to IAN about it...since you know, he also made a comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 I actually wasn't trolling. The way you came into the thread and annouced it was now 10 made it seem you have seen the run early, hence the question to IAN about it...since you know, he also made a comment. the original number was 9 prior to 12z gfs.. which has not finished to be called. but the whole debate is a little silly imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 the original number was 9 prior to 12z gfs.. which has not finished to be called. but the whole debate is a little silly imo. Of course it's silly - but you know, god forbid I make any comment related to OEM otherwise I'm trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 All four runs on Monday showed it. All four runs on Tuesday showed it and both runs this morning showed it. Is my math off? This run makes it 11 if it shows up. By my count, Mapgirl looks foolish now with the trolling. Oh, I got you. However, based on my notes, I don't have a hit from the 0Z Mon run. Maybe I missed it? Do you have any details about that run and/or a saved map from it you can post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 This thread is off to a good start... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Of course it's silly - but you know, god forbid I make any comment related to OEM otherwise I'm trolling. I would take your trolling over Kush any day of the week. Anywho, moving on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 the original number was 9 prior to 12z gfs.. which has not finished to be called. but the whole debate is a little silly imo. We're also missing the point that 4+4+2=10, not 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 This thread is off to a good start... The GFS hugging is just a sign of desperation for a decent storm, it seems, which is mildly understandable but quite silly, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 This threat is not off to a good start... Fixed Folks probably should wait until a storm is named before even considering any GFS post day 5 outputs as meaningful even with consistent output run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin W Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 the original number was 9 prior to 12z gfs.. which has not finished to be called. but the whole debate is a little silly imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Starting to get bored with the GFS showing the same result every time.. hopefully we get an invest soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Maybe I should be more clear next time. Stay on topic, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Fixed Folks probably should wait until a storm is named before even considering any GFS post day 5 outputs as meaningful even with consistent output run to run. If the Euro starts to show similar output as the GFS as consistently, then I'll raise an eyebrow. Right now, there has been only one run of the Euro even remotely close. The one prior to it had it being shredded Emily style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 looks like fl again at 192, outer bands reaching by then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 !0 hits in a row with this 12Z run. Hits Beaufort, SC on 8/27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 The GFS hugging is just a sign of desperation for a decent storm, it seems, which is mildly understandable but quite silly, too. Is it really GFS hugging when a majority of the operational models show something around the same time frame though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 The GFS hugging is just a sign of desperation for a decent storm, it seems, which is mildly understandable but quite silly, too. I disagree, other models show this, not just the GFS and it has been my experience tat the very large majority of situations in the past where there has been this many runs of various models showing some sort of development we at least get a depression out of it- I think that chances of that are well over 50%.. Now whether it is a hurricane, or it actually hits the US are very much in question, but I think that there will probably be a TC of some sort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 !0 hits in a row with this 12Z run. Hits Beaufort, SC on 8/27. Ehh, whatever man. The point I guess is that its consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 17, 2011 Author Share Posted August 17, 2011 Fixed Folks probably should wait until a storm is named before even considering any GFS post day 5 outputs as meaningful even with consistent output run to run. Actually... Not sure I agree. Trying to discern the intensity and landfall point of a tropical cyclone ten days out is absurd. But gaining some general takeaways from the runs-- like, "The pattern for a mainland hit is improving" or "Conditions across the NATL might be improving"-- is perfectly reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 If the Euro starts to show similar output as the GFS as consistently, then I'll raise an eyebrow. Right now, there has been only one run of the Euro even remotely close. The one prior to it had it being shredded Emily style. 100% agree, until Dr No shows a consistent tight isobar low heading East I am totally unimpressed by modeling. That being said that is one helluva major broad circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 I disagree, other models show this, not just the GFS and it has been my experience tat the very large majority of situations in the past where there has been this many runs of various models showing some sort of development we at least get a depression out of it- I think that chances of that are well over 50%.. Now whether it is a hurricane, or it actually hits the US are very much in question, but I think that there will probably be a TC of some sort. Oh no doubt that there is a high chance of this becoming a TC at some point... the issue is the obsession over "10 US hits in a row"... in a quite distant time frame on a model that has been questionable at that range... when this could just as easily be Emily Part II over Hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 100% agree, until Dr No shows a consistent tight isobar low heading East I am totally unimpressed by modeling. That being said that is one helluva major broad circulation. Not to steal Ed's thunder, but I never trust any intensification in the GFS after the resolution chop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 17, 2011 Author Share Posted August 17, 2011 I disagree, other models show this, not just the GFS and it has been my experience tat the very large majority of situations in the past where there has been this many runs of various models showing some sort of development we at least get a depression out of it- I think that chances of that are well over 50%.. Now whether it is a hurricane, or it actually hits the US are very much in question, but I think that there will probably be a TC of some sort. Well said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 I disagree, other models show this, not just the GFS and it has been my experience tat the very large majority of situations in the past where there has been this many runs of various models showing some sort of development we at least get a depression out of it- I think that chances of that are well over 50%.. Now whether it is a hurricane, or it actually hits the US are very much in question, but I think that there will probably be a TC of some sort. Actually... Not sure I agree. Trying to discern the intensity and landfall point of a tropical cyclone ten days out is absurd. But gaining some general takeaways from the runs-- like, "The pattern for a mainland hit is improving" or "Conditions across the NATL might be improving"-- is perfectly reasonable. I think we can agree that some sort of organized LP complex will be on the map as most models point to that. Silly to project either way anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Not to steal Ed's thunder, but I never trust any intensification in the GFS after the resolution chop. Even so, it is modest hurricane before the truncation begins. So far, this is more legit than 93L ever was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Actually... Not sure I agree. Trying to discern the intensity and landfall point of a tropical cyclone ten days out is absurd. But gaining some general takeaways from the runs-- like, "The pattern for a mainland hit is improving" or "Conditions across the NATL might be improving"-- is perfectly reasonable. Which should be taken with a grain of salt after seeing the modeled/actual paths of 92L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 17, 2011 Author Share Posted August 17, 2011 Oh no doubt that there is a high chance of this becoming a TC at some point... the issue is the obsession over "10 US hits in a row"... in a quite distant time frame on a model that has been questionable at that range... when this could just as easily be Emily Part II over Hispaniola. The Hispaniola factor is silly to speculate about ten days out. Hispaniola is a relatively small target and obviously the modeling this many days out is going to be course. I don't even know why people mention factors like Hispaniola ten days out. What matters is that the GFS (and other models) take a significant cyclone much further W than anything we've seen this year or last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Oh no doubt that there is a high chance of this becoming a TC at some point... the issue is the obsession over "10 US hits in a row"... in a quite distant time frame on a model that has been questionable at that range... when this could just as easily be Emily Part II over Hispaniola. Just about all models have been quetionable this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Not to steal Ed's thunder, but I never trust any intensification in the GFS after the resolution chop. I mean right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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