wxsmwhrms Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 I don't know if I want to buy the ECWMF solution just yet, but it has our system stalling for the better part of 5 days in the same location as it slowly organizes and becomes smaller in size. While it's certainly a viable solution that seems awfully slow and the ECWMF is known for not being progressive enough. The op ECMWF looks weird to me in more ways than one. If the Gulf system deepens as much as the models show, I don’t see how it can avoid coming NNE toward the coast. We’ve seen several situations where models show systems almost coming up to the coast and then turning SW toward TX – and they never seem to happen, at least with well developed systems. Maybe this will be the exception – we’ll see. I think it's more likely the system goes west the weaker the system is, and NNE the stronger the system is. It would not surprise me, though, if the initial development was farther SW than what the GFS shows. Of course, if it develops far enough SW, then that track into TX is more likely, a la the Canadian/EC. I can assure you that one solution New Orleans is definitely rooting against is the 06z GFS EnKF. That would be a pretty bad deal for them as far as surge and flooding. A deepening system just offshore and coming at them from the east. However, it seems like a VERY low probability occurrence. It reminds me of what some of the models tried to do with Fay. What Josh says is probably what it boils down to - it's going to rain a lot over the Gulf the next several days. I am pretty confident that something worthy of advisories will form given that ALL the models are now developing a pretty robust system, including the ensembles. But what/where/when and how strong is still way up in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 I am thinking how rare it is for a system to be near the Pacific Coast of Mexico and another system to form in the Gulf. Also, at least the GFS and GEFS MJO forecasts don't look that great, the other thing possible EPAC development would lead me to wonder about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Note: The image attached is not an actual forecast... this is just an attempt to coalesce what we've seen based off multiple models. Green= TD Orange= TS Red= Cat 1 Basically, from the mess all of the models are attempting to show us, I think this is the best mean we can gather at the moment. It will not get too strong, but it will have the potential to become a cat 1. It will move NW towards the Texas coast initially, stall and meander (likely southward) very slowly for a few days, then it will be picked up by the next front and shoved northeast. Right now, I'm more likely to think this is one system versus a weird two-system asexual reproduction that some models are attempting to show. Pardon my MS Paint skills, btw... this is why I don't make maps... but I figured it was necessary in this case to gather some sense of a mean when the models are all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Note: The image attached is not an actual forecast... this is just an attempt to coalesce what we've seen based off multiple models. Green= TD Orange= TS Red= Cat 1 Basically, from the mess all of the models are attempting to show us, I think this is the best mean we can gather at the moment. It will not get too strong, but it will have the potential to become a cat 1. It will move NW towards the Texas coast initially, stall and meander (likely southward) very slowly for a few days, then it will be picked up by the next front and shoved northeast. Right now, I'm more likely to think this is one system versus a weird two-system asexual reproduction that some models are attempting to show. Pardon my MS Paint skills, btw... this is why I don't make maps... but I figured it was necessary in this case to gather some sense of a mean when the models are all over the place. Good thoughts. Only thing I'm wondering about is how far east this thing gets before it comes ashore. I'm not completely buying the Nature Coast of Florida at this point in time, but it's certainly on the table. The ULL CUMet pointed out earlier is going to cause this thing to go more west and southwest, like you mentioned. I'm thinking it gets pulled into the front a little faster thus taking the moisture (and potential winds) more into LA, MS and AL. I spent a long while forecasting this system this morning and that's what I came up with... Of course nothing is set in stone until we get a defined LLC and something to track. Hopefully it gets close to Texas and provides some of them with much needed rain (wishcasting I know ) It's going to be fun sorting out this mess the next couple of days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Good thoughts. Only thing I'm wondering about is how far east this thing gets before it comes ashore. I'm not completely buying the Nature Coast of Florida at this point in time, but it's certainly on the table. The ULL CUMet pointed out earlier is going to cause this thing to go more west and southwest, like you mentioned. I'm thinking it gets pulled into the front a little faster thus taking the moisture (and potential winds) more into LA, MS and AL. I spent a long while forecasting this system this morning and that's what I came up with... Of course nothing is set in stone until we get a defined LLC and something to track. Hopefully it gets close to Texas and provides some of them with much needed rain (wishcasting I know ) It's going to be fun sorting out this mess the next couple of days! Thanks... of course the Nature Coast isn't set in stone at all, but that seems to be the general location for models to be projecting a low pressure center. Definitely a very unique and interesting situation coming up for the GOM for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 12Z GFS pulls this low into GA- I just hope (selfishly) that it gets close enough to give us much needed rain. Right now I really do not have a really good handle on this, models keep shifting around and we do not even have a defined LP yet. It is an interesting scenario though, the track depicted above would be an unusual one for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 12Z GFS pulls this low into GA- I just hope (selfishly) that it gets close enough to give us much needed rain. Right now I really do not have a really good handle on this, models keep shifting around and we do not even have a defined LP yet. It is an interesting scenario though, the track depicted above would be an unusual one for sure. It seems to be highly sensitive to the initial genesis point. If it is east of Beaumont, it gets entrained into the mid-latitude flow. Beaumont or west, and the Euro solution near TX plays out. Good luck trying to forecast this until we see the whites of its eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 The Canadian is similar to the NAM. SW/Louisiana/SE Texas, S of Lake Charles/Beaumont solution again for genesis. What a headache this is going to be to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 You can see some low level turning in the vis loop around 23N 87.5W.... ASCAT pretty much confirms this... it's getting sheared, hence all the convection to it's east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Strictly for entertainment purposes, the 12Z GFS is forecasting another African storm following Katia, has it in an ominous position at 384 hours. Main thing to take away from that is that the Atlantic basin could very well remain active well into September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Strictly for entertainment purposes, the 12Z GFS is forecasting another African storm following Katia, has it in an ominous position at 384 hours. Main think to take away from that is that the Atlantic basin could very well remain active well into September. post 1 on a storm that is likely to inspire defcon1. this one should be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Strictly for entertainment purposes, the 12Z GFS is forecasting another African storm following Katia, has it in an ominous position at 384 hours. Main thing to take away from that is that the Atlantic basin could very well remain active well into September. In an OT thread Hugo diagnosed the wave near 10ºE as a potential US threat. I believe he did it simply by pattern recognition and teleconnections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 You can see some low level turning in the vis loop around 23N 87.5W.... ASCAT pretty much confirms this... it's getting sheared, hence all the convection to it's east. This is definitely the vorticity max that the GFS and Canadian are using to develop their system. I completely agree with am19psu's post - if it develops in any kind of robust manner east of BPT it has to gradually get pulled in toward the coast - farther west it could stay more in the flow associated with the ridge to the west and go toward TX. The models show the shear decreasing with time, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 This is definitely the vorticity max that the GFS and Canadian are using to develop their system. I completely agree with am19psu's post - if it develops in any kind of robust manner east of BPT it has to gradually get pulled in toward the coast - farther west it could stay more in the flow associated with the ridge to the west and go toward TX. The models show the shear decreasing with time, we'll see. Also of note is that the GFS and NAM are initializing another low level vorticity max around the FL straits, which the Euro and current analysis do not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 0130 PM EDT WED 31 AUGUST 2011 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 01/1100Z AUGUST TO 02/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2011 TCPOD NUMBER.....11-092 AMENDMENT I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS -- ADDED 1. FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70--SUSPECT AREA IN CNTRL GULF A. 01/1800Z B. AFXXX 01HHA INVEST C. 01/1630Z D. 25.0N AND 90.0W E. 01/1730Z TO 01/ 2300Z F. SFC TO 10,000FT FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 71 A. 02/0600Z ,1200Z B. AFXXX 0213A CYCLONE C. 02/0430Z D. 25.5N AND 95.5W E. 02/0530Z TO 02/1200Z F. SFC TO 15,000FT 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6 HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AT 02/1800Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 12z Euro stands ground vs the GFS guidance... TX upper coast threat, then it will probably drift SW from there. I'm starting to favor this solution over the GFS one, because 1) it has more model support and 2) that bogus low level vort max is probably slowing and pulling east the real vort max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 The 12Z Ukmet and Euro agree with the SW Louisiana/SE TX idea... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Latest TWO mentioned the dreaded STS. At this point we will take anything... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al932011.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201108311813 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 93, 2011, DB, O, 2011083118, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL932011 AL, 93, 2011083118, , BEST, 0, 240N, 860W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Guesses on what gets named Lee first... BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al942011.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201109011236 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 94, 2011, DB, O, 2011090112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL942011 AL, 94, 2011090112, , BEST, 0, 375N, 637W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Interesting trivia for those that like to follow... if we can get both 94L and TD13 to become named today, we will tie 2005 for the quickest genesis of 13 named storms.... 2005 then adds #14 and #15 (Nate and Ophelia) on the list on Sept 5th and Sept 6th, so if we want to keep up the Atlantic basin will have to continue to be productive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 2, 2011 Author Share Posted September 2, 2011 The crap N of Bermuda has been downgraded to Mandarin, and I notice it's looking like less of a contender on IR imagery. Cool. I'm hoping Maria is the one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 The crap N of Bermuda has been downgraded to Mandarin, and I notice it's looking like less of a contender on IR imagery. Cool. I'm hoping Maria is the one. My link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 My link The long-range models don't seem to show much after Katia and Lee... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 I don't know who it was with the 2008 analogs, but Don and Dolly, other than landfall proximity, not so much and I haven't seen much else that suggests this year will be active like 2008 was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 The long-range models don't seem to show much after Katia and Lee... that blows. good thing they are only models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
violinist Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 that blows. good thing they are only models. That's a good thing, unless your a glutton for punishment. The east coast does NOT need another hurricane. Enough is enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 That's a good thing, unless your a glutton for punishment. The east coast does NOT need another hurricane. Enough is enough. Agreed. Let's keep the rest of this year's storms confined to FL, the GOM, and Central America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 3, 2011 Author Share Posted September 3, 2011 That's a good thing, unless your a glutton for punishment. The east coast does NOT need another hurricane. Enough is enough. What a treasured dear you are. Your heart knows no boundaries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Agreed. Let's keep the rest of this year's storms confined to FL, the GOM, and Central America. What a treasured dear you are. Your heart knows no boundaries. Book it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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