HurricaneJosh Posted August 30, 2011 Author Share Posted August 30, 2011 Let's crank this baby up to a 'cane! I need a break from these d*mn African things. I love the immediate gratification of a Gulf brew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 Any developing cyclone possibly nearing TX likely will have to contend with sucking in a lot of hot and dry air thanks to the prolonged drought. I am still amazed at how Don simply vanished before landfill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 30, 2011 Author Share Posted August 30, 2011 Any developing cyclone possibly nearing TX likely will have to contend with sucking in a lot of hot and dry air thanks to the prolonged drought. I am still amazed at how Don simply vanished before landfill. You and me both. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 Why do I get the feeling that we're looking at a large monsoonal gyre type low that will be slow to develop in the NW Gulf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 Why do I get the feeling that we're looking at a large monsoonal gyre type low that will be slow to develop in the NW Gulf? Because that's what's going to happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 geez... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 if some of the ec ensemble guidance is right the gulf slopical storm could go northeast instead of west...with a trough/fro pa coming east for Labor Day wknd in the northeast would hate for it to be deep enough to pull this baby up the coast as a remnant rainmaker. Really pulling for Texas on this one -- they don't need the floods but would cancel some of the drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 GFS verbatim is not really my lawn's friend. PPV Euro from AccuWx suggests in Texas most of the rain is South of I-10 or along the immediate coast, with my lawnn nnear/just outside more significannt rains.. But as a glass half full optimist, we havve a few days for subtle shifts to bring in more significant rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 Morning WFO discussions from Coastal Louisiana and Texas: New Orleans: MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SIMILAR BUT QUITE DIFFERENT AT THE SAME TIME FOR LATE THIS WEEK FROM 24 HRS AGO. SIMILAR IN THE FACT THAT A WET PATTERN LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST GRADUALLY FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE DIFFERENCE IS THAT MODELS NOW SHOW AN UPPER AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF THE END OF THIS WEEK AND MOVE NORTH TOWARDS THE LA GULF COAST. GFS BRINGS THIS TROPICAL WAVE FURTHER NORTH BEFORE TAKING IS BACK SOUTHWEST AS THE SYSTEM IS NOT PICKED UP BY NORTHERLY STREAM TROUGH. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTH WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW. Lake Charles: A REX BLOCK LOW FORMS OVER THE GULF IN RESPONSE TO BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER THIS WEEK. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SLOWLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM. CHOSE TO GO WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL WHICH IS MORE CONSERVATIVE IN NOT WINDING THIS SYSTEM UP AS QUICKLY. Houston/Galveston: THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF CUBA. THERE IS A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ITS EVOLUTION AND DEVELOPMENT. OF THE SYNOPTIC MODELS...THE NAM REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPING A WEAK TROPICAL SYSTEM ON THU. THIS IS DIFFERENT FROM PREVIOUS PROGGS WHICH SHOWED A SURGE OF TROPICAL AIR WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 2.5 INCHES. DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE DOES NOT MOVE INTO THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY SO BACKED OFF ON POPS WED/WED NIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS THOUGHT BUT AT THE SAME TIME ARE MUCH SLOWER BY ABOUT 24 HOURS TO DEVELOP A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE NAM DEEPENS THE CYCLONE TO AROUND 990MB ON THE 06Z RUN DURING THE DAY FRI WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE A WEAK DEPRESSION. THE GFS/ECMWF EVENTUALLY DEVELOP TROPICAL STORMS BUT ARE SLOWER TO DO SO WITH VERY DIFFERENT TRACKS. SURPRISINGLY...NONE OF THE MODELS TAKE THE SYSTEM INLAND AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE N PLAINS FRI AS WELL AS WHEN ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SAT/SUN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND THU/FRI BUT THEN RETRACT BACK OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF RING A COLD FRONT INTO TX ON MONDAY WHICH SEEMS TO KEEP ANY TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE LOWER TX COAST. TO SAY THE LEAST...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST Corpus Christi: AFTER DAYS OF GOOD CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE BEGINNING OF A POTENTIALLY WET PERIOD BEGINNING LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO INTERACTION OF AN UPR LOW AND TROPICAL WAVE...MODELS HAVE THROWN A MAJOR CURVEBALL TO FORECASTERS IN THE FORM OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGGED TO FORM ACROSS THE WRN GULF. 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF...GFS AND NAM ALL DEVELOP A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL LOW ACROSS THE WRN GULF BY THE WEEKEND. THE NAM IS EXTREMELY AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM IN ONLY 48 HRS OR SO WHICH SEEMS WAY OVERDONE GIVEN THE CURRENT UNORGANIZED APPEARANCE ON SAT IMAGERY IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN. CANADIAN AND UKMET MODELS SUGGEST MORE OF A STRONG OPEN WAVE MVG INTO SRN TEXAS/NE MEXICO WITH LOTS OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THU AND BEYOND. MODELS THAT SPIN UP A SYSTEM KEEP IT MORE EAST OF THE AREA INITIALLY AND ACTUALLY DRAW MOISTURE AWAY FROM S TX. EVEN THESE SOLNS EVENTUALLY PAINT A WETTER PICTURE AS THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS W-SW DOWN THE TEXAS COAST. Brownsville: AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE OF MOISTURE SURGES INTO THE LOWER VALLEY WED NIGHT AND THU THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS IS A CHALLENGE. ALL MODELS NOW BRING A CLOSED SURFACE LOW INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY SATURDAY. NO MODELS ARE PARTICULARLY BULLISH ON A STRONG SYSTEM...BUT OBVIOUSLY BEARS WATCHING. IT IS LATE AUGUST...GULF WATERS ARE VERY WARM AND TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. INITIALLY THE LOW BECOMES ORGANIZED AND APPEARS TO HEAD FOR THE HOUSTON AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. MODELS DIVERGE IN WHAT HAPPENS NEXT. ONE OF TWO SCENARIOS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR. ONE OPTION IS FOR THE SYSTEM TO MOVE NORTHEAST IF IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE WESTERLIES AS A WEAK 5H TROUGH SINKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT TROUGH WILL STAY TOO FAR NORTH AND THE CIRCULATION CENTER WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE LOWER RGV BY WED OF NEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 30, 2011 Author Share Posted August 30, 2011 Yeah, the various discussions-- and the models they're based on-- say "big mess", essentially. Not going to hold my breath about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 Yeah, the various discussions-- and the models they're based on-- say "big mess", essentially. Not going to hold my breath about this one. Some are interesting, like the Euro (and the NAM )... but I agree, we should wait a couple of days before we go into full weenie mode. The Tropical Wave that's supposed to trigger the cyclone is currently about to enter the GoH, with decent vorticity from low to mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 The models have been very good about showing a signal for something developing for the past few days in the Gulf, so at least we have the consistency... and with each run it seemingly gets a little better defined on the models. With respect to the northeast vs. west argument... eh... it really just depends on how well sampled this next trough is... and the result could determine where Katia goes. If the trough is stronger and picks this system up to the NE, Katia would be much more likely to recurve... if it is weaker and this system goes west, Katia could become more of a threat to the US. That said, I think it is fairly unlikely at this point that the system goes northeast... only a few ensembles are showing that... this is much more likely, IMO, to affect the Texas and western Louisiana coasts. I like the analogy to TS Frances-1998... it seems very similar, and Frances was a very large system that had trouble getting together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 There are no imminent threats to land, with the exception of Irene in the model world, but one thing that caught my eye is that the GOM is currently with the most expansive 30C+ area since at least 1979 according to CFSR CFS SST Reanalysis... thanks to the lower than normal surface pressures and fair conditions, which loosen the gradient across the GOM, and has as a consequence that winds are weaker than normal with little cloud cover... and that conditions are forecasted to persist for at least 1 week. Now we just need a storm to take advantage of it in September. There's now a threat in model world in the medium range. Gulf has warmed further, and is now averaging >30C....I haven't seen it that warm since...well, ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 There's now a threat in model world in the medium range. Gulf has warmed further, and is now averaging >30C....I haven't seen it that warm since...well, ever. And all to be wasted on a monsoon low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 30, 2011 Author Share Posted August 30, 2011 And all to be wasted on a monsoon low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 12z GFS moves our interest subject from Lafayette to Tampico in one of the craziest southward plunges in the GOM I have seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 12z GFS moves our interest subject from Lafayette to Tampico in one of the craziest southward plunges in the GOM I have seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 And all to be wasted on a monsoon low With the 12z GFS, yeah, all anomalies W of 90W would be a thing of the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 Big rain producer... but guess where it doesn't rain, look at the gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 Unpleasantly sharp precip cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 I don't know how Steve and Jorge always post 30 seconds before I do, but at any rate, seriously hoping the GFS is wrong. Anyway, I know it perturbs Adam to see the NAM in tropical threads, but since I'm a naturally optimistc guy and the NAM drops about as much rain on my lawn in less than 4 days then the GFS does in 2 weeks, lets hope the NAM scores a rare coup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 Oh Canada... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2011 A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ACCOMPANIED BY DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 12z Euro agrees with Adam... at least some people would get lots of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 And all to be wasted on a monsoon low Grrr. Not really wanting to see this system develop. But TX needs the rain and I'll pull for them, hopefully the ridge won't screw them [again]. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 Hour 192 of the 12Z Euro is pretty interesting... it looks like "future Maria" (the current NW Caribbean disturbance) teases the Gulf coast of Texas, dives south into the BoC as it is dying, and with the help of some baroclinic enhancement along the front... spits possible "Nate" out heading NE towards FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 Hour 192 of the 12Z Euro is pretty interesting... it looks like "future Maria" (the current NW Caribbean disturbance) teases the Gulf coast of Texas, dives south into the BoC as it is dying, and with the help of some baroclinic enhancement along the front... spits possible "Nate" out heading NE towards FL Obvious caveat that we're talking about model solutions at Day 8... but that's actually a fairly typical monsoon gyre response in the WPAC. I don't think it'll happen exactly like that, but at least the solution makes some sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 Obvious caveat that we're talking about model solutions at Day 8... but that's actually a fairly typical monsoon gyre response in the WPAC. I don't think it'll happen exactly like that, but at least the solution makes some sense. Of course... this is a bit unlikely to happen as projected... albeit it is quite an entertaining run to watch... especially since you don't see this type of thing in the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.