wxmx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Yup. I agree, Jorge. Sounds like I'll have a relaxing vacation in Boulder next weekend Vacations on early September? Bold. Next Niña why don't you take a cruise across the Caribbean in early October? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Yup. I agree, Jorge. Sounds like I'll have a relaxing vacation in Boulder next weekend Oh! Euro 7+ says "Naso fast" (the Tampico threat is a followup to the earlier one... the major in the Atlantic is the CV wave alluded before)... Fortunately for you that's in the long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Vacations on early September? Bold. Next Niña why don't you take a cruise across the Caribbean in early October? Southland theorized the drought in Texas/Northern Mexico is the source of the dry air holding back Irene, 30ºC water or not, anything nearing the NW Gulf would look to ingest the motherload of dry air. Not all bad, a nice TS or low end Cat 1, held in check by dry air, could be just the ticket for my lawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Oh! Euro 7+ says "Naso fast" (the Tampico threat is a followup to the earlier one... the major in the Atlantic is the CV wave alluded before)... Fortunately for you that's in the long range I wonder why Jorge chose the map without 500 mb heights? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Southland theorized the drought in Texas/Northern Mexico is the source of the dry air holding back Irene, 30ºC water or not, anything nearing the NW Gulf would look to ingest the motherload of dry air. Not all bad, a nice TS or low end Cat 1, held in check by dry air, could be just the ticket for my lawn. The problem is that with a restrengthening Niña, -AO and positive feedback from the drought, the ridge in the S/SE won't go away soon. You'll need perfect timing. Check the analogs for stronger Niñas, there's a hole in the upper TX coast for TC tracks...fortunately we are not in a strong Niña, but the current drought and -AO might compensate for that. Glass 15/16 empty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 I wonder why Jorge chose the map without 500 mb heights? Yep, a bit provocative...but there's a digging east coast trough, and the cyclone looks quite far north already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The problem is that with a restrengthening Niña, -AO and positive feedback from the drought, the ridge in the S/SE won't go away soon. You'll need perfect timing. Check the analogs for stronger Niñas, there's a hole in the upper TX coast for TC tracks...fortunately we are not in a strong Niña, but the current drought and -AO might compensate for that. Glass 15/16 empty. I get the impression some people don't believe dry/hot ground feeds back to strengthen upper ridges, but back in one of the early Atlantic Tropical threads, when everyone was talking 2008 analogs, I was wondering what would displace the ridge enough to be favorable for Texas. Of course, back then, when almost everyone was certain the ENSO was warming somewhat, I assumed the pattern might somehow change, although I didn't know what would change it. I do not know enough about predicting ENSO phase than to look at the models and try to see what the smarter posters were saying about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I wonder why Jorge chose the map without 500 mb heights? New run is not so boring anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 New run is not so boring anymore Recurves it there at 240hrs..If the current pattern remains i'd say recurve seems probable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Recurves it there at 240hrs..If the current pattern remains i'd say recurve seems probable. I think he was talking about the landfalling system in LA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Are José and Katia around the corner? Euro has trended stronger with the one in the GOM, around the Tampico area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big O Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Are José and Katia around the corner? Euro has trended stronger with the one in the GOM, around the Tampico area. Jorge, is this the system the Euro was strengthening as it approached the northern Gulf coast or is this an earlier system originating in the BOC? Do you see this as anything other than a rainmaker or at best a TD or TS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big O Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I've read conflicting viewpoints from two sources. One says the GOM will shut down by Sept. 7, while another states the Gulf will open up and remain open for most of September. Would any pro-mets or others chime in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Jorge, is this the system the Euro was strengthening as it approached the northern Gulf coast or is this an earlier system originating in the BOC? Do you see this as anything other than a rainmaker or at best a TD or TS? This is the first one. I expect no more than a TS (if any cyclone forms)... but you can never really know in the BoC with smallish systems in the peak of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Not overly impressive, but mostly agrees with the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 20% lemon in the Eastern Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 The 180 Hr Euro shows this around 960MB off the earlier 12z. Not too shabby. The GFS has the storm also but seems slower and eventually gets kicked Northward well before getting close to the the area depicted on the Euro image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 I've read conflicting viewpoints from two sources. One says the GOM will shut down by Sept. 7, while another states the Gulf will open up and remain open for most of September. Would any pro-mets or others chime in. My pro-met opinion is: who knows? But I doubt it will completely "shut down" to any threat of development by 9/7, mainly just based on climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 I'd stop reading anyone who claims the gulf will shut down by 9/7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 body { background: #FFFFFF; margin: 0px; padding: 4px; font-family: arial, verdana, tahoma, sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; } font { font-size: 9px; } font { font-size: 13px; } font { font-size: 15px; } font { font-size: 17px; } font { font-size: 21px; } font { font-size: 26px; } font { font-size: 36px; } Not overly impressive, but mostly agrees with the Euro http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/00zecmwfenstropical500mbSLP240.gif Euro still likes a Tampico threatener. Gulf shutdown, JB or LC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 The 180 Hr Euro shows this around 960MB off the earlier 12z. Not too shabby. The GFS has the storm also but seems slower and eventually gets kicked Northward well before getting close to the the area depicted on the Euro image. Ahhh...you beat me...didn't see this, but here is a zoomed in picture... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Henry Marguisity is saying the euro shows this over NYC on 9/11 . does anyone have the link to back up his statement ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Henry Marguisity is saying the euro shows this over NYC on 9/11 . does anyone have the link to back up his statement ? no, because that is not true... its still way out in the Atlantic at 240 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 GFS Ensemble member P001 at 360hrs. Agrees with Margisity But one ensemble members will always show a Hurricane hitting the east coast in the long range at this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Hard to tell with just the ensemble mean, but there are clearly a number of EC members farther SW than the op run in the later periods with 92L and is not as deep or far W with the upper trough over the eastern CONUS. Still, hard to imagine if it gets really well developed as far east as it looks like it might for it to get all the way across to the CONUS, especially with a fairly persistent weakness being shown through day 7 or 8 along 60W. Another area of interest is the GoM where the ensemble mean has consistently been showing quite low pressures and several members must be showing a pretty deep system to have a mean SLP of 1006 mb in the SW Gulf at 240 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 Maybe Bermuda might have a 1-2 punch... Jose is now moving out of the picture, but a new area of disturbed weather has formed in its wake... its crazy how quick things are popping in the Atlantic these days, and we are quickly following behind 2005 right now. With significant positive SST Anomalies everywhere except in Irene's wake, I see no reason to believe why the active season won't continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 Maybe Bermuda might have a 1-2 punch... Jose is now moving out of the picture, but a new area of disturbed weather has formed in its wake... its crazy how quick things are popping in the Atlantic these days, and we are quickly following behind 2005 right now. With significant positive SST Anomalies everywhere except in Irene's wake, I see no reason to believe why the active season won't continue. Hmmm... splitting of the low level vorticity, yeah, I see the elongation... we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 Hard to tell with just the ensemble mean, but there are clearly a number of EC members farther SW than the op run in the later periods with 92L and is not as deep or far W with the upper trough over the eastern CONUS. Still, hard to imagine if it gets really well developed as far east as it looks like it might for it to get all the way across to the CONUS, especially with a fairly persistent weakness being shown through day 7 or 8 along 60W. Another area of interest is the GoM where the ensemble mean has consistently been showing quite low pressures and several members must be showing a pretty deep system to have a mean SLP of 1006 mb in the SW Gulf at 240 hours. Per climo, the chance of a TC that originates in the MDR subsequently hitting the U.S. is one in six. Earlier in the season, I predicted there'd be five MDR storms and one hitting the U.S. With this expected to be only the first, things had better continue to be busy there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 Hmmm... splitting of the low level vorticity, yeah, I see the elongation... we'll see. I posted some thoughts on my blog about the disturbance... I don't think its going to develop immediately, but the ECWMF does capture the low level vorticity and slowly develops it into a tropical cyclone over the next 3-4 days. Here it is by 120 hours... this is from the current disturbance I have mentioned above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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