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Atlantic Tropical Action 2011 - Part IV


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Yup. I agree, Jorge. Sounds like I'll have a relaxing vacation in Boulder next weekend ;)

Oh! Euro 7+ says "Naso fast" (the Tampico threat is a followup to the earlier one... the major in the Atlantic is the CV wave alluded before)... Fortunately for you that's in the long range

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Vacations on early September? Bold. Next Niña why don't you take a cruise across the Caribbean in early October? :P

Southland theorized the drought in Texas/Northern Mexico is the source of the dry air holding back Irene, 30ºC water or not, anything nearing the NW Gulf would look to ingest the motherload of dry air. Not all bad, a nice TS or low end Cat 1, held in check by dry air, could be just the ticket for my lawn.

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Southland theorized the drought in Texas/Northern Mexico is the source of the dry air holding back Irene, 30ºC water or not, anything nearing the NW Gulf would look to ingest the motherload of dry air. Not all bad, a nice TS or low end Cat 1, held in check by dry air, could be just the ticket for my lawn.

wv-l.jpg

The problem is that with a restrengthening Niña, -AO and positive feedback from the drought, the ridge in the S/SE won't go away soon. You'll need perfect timing. Check the analogs for stronger Niñas, there's a hole in the upper TX coast for TC tracks...fortunately we are not in a strong Niña, but the current drought and -AO might compensate for that. Glass 15/16 empty.

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The problem is that with a restrengthening Niña, -AO and positive feedback from the drought, the ridge in the S/SE won't go away soon. You'll need perfect timing. Check the analogs for stronger Niñas, there's a hole in the upper TX coast for TC tracks...fortunately we are not in a strong Niña, but the current drought and -AO might compensate for that. Glass 15/16 empty.

I get the impression some people don't believe dry/hot ground feeds back to strengthen upper ridges, but back in one of the early Atlantic Tropical threads, when everyone was talking 2008 analogs, I was wondering what would displace the ridge enough to be favorable for Texas. Of course, back then, when almost everyone was certain the ENSO was warming somewhat, I assumed the pattern might somehow change, although I didn't know what would change it. I do not know enough about predicting ENSO phase than to look at the models and try to see what the smarter posters were saying about it.

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Are José and Katia around the corner? Euro has trended stronger with the one in the GOM, around the Tampico area.

g9nuN.gif

Jorge, is this the system the Euro was strengthening as it approached the northern Gulf coast or is this an earlier system originating in the BOC?

Do you see this as anything other than a rainmaker or at best a TD or TS?

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Jorge, is this the system the Euro was strengthening as it approached the northern Gulf coast or is this an earlier system originating in the BOC?

Do you see this as anything other than a rainmaker or at best a TD or TS?

This is the first one. I expect no more than a TS (if any cyclone forms)... but you can never really know in the BoC with smallish systems in the peak of the season.

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I've read conflicting viewpoints from two sources. One says the GOM will shut down by Sept. 7, while another states the Gulf will open up and remain open for most of September. Would any pro-mets or others chime in.

My pro-met opinion is: who knows?

But I doubt it will completely "shut down" to any threat of development by 9/7, mainly just based on climo.

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Not overly impressive, but mostly agrees with the Euro

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/00zecmwfenstropical500mbSLP240.gif

Euro still likes a Tampico threatener. Gulf shutdown, JB or LC?

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Hard to tell with just the ensemble mean, but there are clearly a number of EC members farther SW than the op run in the later periods with 92L and is not as deep or far W with the upper trough over the eastern CONUS. Still, hard to imagine if it gets really well developed as far east as it looks like it might for it to get all the way across to the CONUS, especially with a fairly persistent weakness being shown through day 7 or 8 along 60W.

Another area of interest is the GoM where the ensemble mean has consistently been showing quite low pressures and several members must be showing a pretty deep system to have a mean SLP of 1006 mb in the SW Gulf at 240 hours.

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Maybe Bermuda might have a 1-2 punch... Jose is now moving out of the picture, but a new area of disturbed weather has formed in its wake... its crazy how quick things are popping in the Atlantic these days, and we are quickly following behind 2005 right now. With significant positive SST Anomalies everywhere except in Irene's wake, I see no reason to believe why the active season won't continue.

2vspzlk.jpg

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Maybe Bermuda might have a 1-2 punch... Jose is now moving out of the picture, but a new area of disturbed weather has formed in its wake... its crazy how quick things are popping in the Atlantic these days, and we are quickly following behind 2005 right now. With significant positive SST Anomalies everywhere except in Irene's wake, I see no reason to believe why the active season won't continue.

Hmmm... splitting of the low level vorticity, yeah, I see the elongation... we'll see.

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Hard to tell with just the ensemble mean, but there are clearly a number of EC members farther SW than the op run in the later periods with 92L and is not as deep or far W with the upper trough over the eastern CONUS. Still, hard to imagine if it gets really well developed as far east as it looks like it might for it to get all the way across to the CONUS, especially with a fairly persistent weakness being shown through day 7 or 8 along 60W.

Another area of interest is the GoM where the ensemble mean has consistently been showing quite low pressures and several members must be showing a pretty deep system to have a mean SLP of 1006 mb in the SW Gulf at 240 hours.

Per climo, the chance of a TC that originates in the MDR subsequently hitting the U.S. is one in six. Earlier in the season, I predicted there'd be five MDR storms and one hitting the U.S. With this expected to be only the first, things had better continue to be busy there.

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Hmmm... splitting of the low level vorticity, yeah, I see the elongation... we'll see.

I posted some thoughts on my blog about the disturbance... I don't think its going to develop immediately, but the ECWMF does capture the low level vorticity and slowly develops it into a tropical cyclone over the next 3-4 days.

Here it is by 120 hours... this is from the current disturbance I have mentioned above.

23usf9.png

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