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Atlantic Tropical Action 2011 - Part IV


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I was trying to compare, named storm wise, this year, 2005, and 1995... on September 1, 1995 we were on Luis, and on September 1, 2005 we were on Lee (with Maria just becoming a TD).... the big difference between the two years, of course, is that 1995 shut down early, while 2005 had an unbelievably active September, October, and November.

I also think... albeit it is quite unlikely... that it would be quite ironic if 98L and 99L both formed before 97L... as our Gulf threat would then be Katia, the name that replaced Katrina.

:facepalm: at whoever had the job of coming up with new names for the retired ones, especially if this potential landfalling storm ends up being named Katia (not to mention in that situation it would likely hit land within a few days of Katrina six years ago.

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That aforementioned powerful wave that the global models picked up on is about to exit the coast of Senegal and nearby places. It may have a circulation, based on the last visible pictures available. Dakar is in for a squally night. The global models have backed off its intensity though once it emerges tomorrow.

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That aforementioned powerful wave that the global models picked up on is about to exit the coast of Senegal and nearby places. It may have a circulation, based on the last visible pictures available. Dakar is in for a squally night. The global models have backed off its intensity though once it emerges tomorrow.

Agreed... looks like a pretty vigorous wave with a well defined anticyclone.

2vxrt6w.jpg

Seems like SAL might not be as huge of a problem as it was for 98L with a pretty moist mid-upper level environment.

5eux50.jpg

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I thought I should take a moment to commemorate the birth of the season's first hurricane, Irene-- and the end of the spectacular stream of crappiness. The Lord hath brought uis a real cyclone. Finally.

post-19-0-81149800-1314004621.jpg

Congrats. blossoming nicely...I'd buy her a few drinks.

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Nothing screams out for immediate attention, but pattern for a possible Texas drought buster going from absolutely unlikely to absolutely it could happen, although not perfect, in September, and I'm seeing hints out past a week of happiness in Steve's beloeved 'Carla Cradle'.

Not bullish, but not completely bearish, either

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Interesting how the UK and GFS are developing the wave off Africa eventually, while the ECMWF just destroys it. I wonder what will be right... yeah i know Irene is a big problem too but always gotta pay attention for the next one... :arrowhead:

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Interesting how the UK and GFS are developing the wave off Africa eventually, while the ECMWF just destroys it. I wonder what will be right... yeah i know Irene is a big problem too but always gotta pay attention for the next one... :arrowhead:

I liked the looks of it this morning, but convection has really fizzled. Its also not going to get much upper level support as both this wave and 98L are feeling the effects of the subsidence phase of a kelvin wave.

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SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER

ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED

ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR SLOW

DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM

HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE

DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

avn-l.jpg

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I was right with the trend no matter what the setup it always goes east and that is why I doubt the area will see a hurricane for long time.

What area? NY? If so, climo agrees with you, as NY is not a hurricane-prone region and never has been.

If you mean the USA, it's premature to say that in August. Not every hurricane that hits the USA comes from Africa.

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FWIW, the 12Z GFS in the medium to long ranges shows both a Gulf System originating in the western caribbean and has a signal for a long tracker.

Something to watch for possible trends in future runs.

I see the GOM system, but what should I be looking at in terms of the signal for a long tracker?

I know it is in the long-range, but are you buying the deep trough across the eastern 1/3 to 1/2 of the CONUS that steers the GOM system?

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There are no imminent threats to land, with the exception of Irene in the model world, but one thing that caught my eye is that the GOM is currently with the most expansive 30C+ area since at least 1979 according to CFSR CFS SST Reanalysis... thanks to the lower than normal surface pressures and fair conditions, which loosen the gradient across the GOM, and has as a consequence that winds are weaker than normal with little cloud cover... and that conditions are forecasted to persist for at least 1 week. Now we just need a storm to take advantage of it in September.

Qg9dm.png

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There is some agreement in the long range that a wave over central Africa will find a decent environment-- the 12z ec/gfs were pretty close on a system in a central tropical Atlantic by day 8. Gotta get the mid-oceanic trough out of the way, which intensifies bc of Irene and convection moving into the eastern Hemisphere. Can't be much worse than 90L moving north before 40W though!

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There is some agreement in the long range that a wave over central Africa will find a decent environment-- the 12z ec/gfs were pretty close on a system in a central tropical Atlantic by day 8. Gotta get the mid-oceanic trough out of the way, which intensifies bc of Irene and convection moving into the eastern Hemisphere. Can't be much worse than 90L moving north before 40W though!

Yea 90L is a goner thanks to the mid-oceanic trough. I'm worried though that it gets stuck as the trough starts to lift out, creating a large enough weakness to draw the next wave northward as well. This is what the GFS has been depicting off and on, although the most recent run shows the ridge rebuilding back in just in time.

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In the medium to long-range, it appears that the trough pattern over the east will end and be replaced by a ridge. This is supported by the ensemble mean of both the GFS and ECMWF. I believe the main issue with getting a Carribean Cruiser or long-tracker is whether any potential system can slide underneath the trough in the mid-Atlantic.

There has been a suggestion (I won't say by who, but you can probably guess) that the GOM will only be open for a 5-7 day period, followed by a return to the current pattern. This person actually states that the GOM will shut down; however, it is not clear if he means for the remainder of the season or only for a time.

I think it would be irresponsible to say that GOM will shut down, especially given the threat the eastern Gulf faces in October of nearly every year.

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:scooter:

lol did somebody just turn off the new convective parameterization that the GFS was upgraded to last year :P

On a more serious note, look for this to get upgraded to at least code yellow at 2am. This is NOT Invest 98L but a mid-level low pressure that is attempting to work its way down to the surface, and thus far being surprisingly successful! It only has about 12-24 hours before it runs into the upper level outflow of Irene, but its worth watching for quick genesis if it can maintain its composure right now.

fp1kb9.jpg

Windsat pass earlier today when it was at its minimum convection wise shows evidence that there was something brewing.

29uu73b.jpg

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Next two possible disturbances might be rather boring. First is a BoC disturbance moving WNW to NW towards the Tamaulipas coast... Ridge might be building eastward from the SW CONUS thanks to Irene's exiting stage to the right and a trough entering the NW Pac, so other than deep S TX, I think the CONUS will not be threatened if something forms out of it. This is in the 3-5 day range.

The second disturbance might get stronger, but it is a CV wave that has a high chance of fishing. This is also in the 3+ day range.

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Next two possible disturbances might be rather boring. First is a BoC disturbance moving WNW to NW towards the Tamaulipas coast... Ridge might be building eastward from the SW CONUS thanks to Irene's exiting stage to the right and a trough entering the NW Pac, so other than deep S TX, I think the CONUS will not be threatened if something forms out of it. This is in the 3-5 day range.

The second disturbance might get stronger, but it is a CV wave that has a high chance of fishing. This is also in the 3+ day range.

Yup. I agree, Jorge. Sounds like I'll have a relaxing vacation in Boulder next weekend ;)

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