Master of Disaster Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Yeah when there is a pattern of repeatedly comparing setups to the all time great storms, be it Donna, be it any of the great winter storm bombs, or whatever, then yes it should be called into question, because you could likely find similar patterns also that produced nothing. I think we are having two different discussions here. The issue really wasn't questioning what was written or said. It was slamming anyone who tries to bring up anything different for consideration like its some sort of cardinal sin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 If you always swing for the fences, sometime you'll hit a homerun. Fair enough on that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I think we are having two different discussions here. The issue really wasn't questioning what was written or said. It was slamming anyone who tries to bring up anything different for consideration like its some sort of cardinal sin. Providing specific analogs for a storm 10 days away from the East Coast is folly, whether it is Joe Bastardi, HurricaneJosh, or ORH_wxman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I think we are having two different discussions here. The issue really wasn't questioning what was written or said. It was slamming anyone who tries to bring up anything different for consideration like its some sort of cardinal sin. The first post that brought it up was not slamming "anyone who tries to bring up anything different for consideration" though. It was a criticism of JB because he commonly references the epic storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Providing specific analogs for a storm 10 days away from the East Coast is folly, whether it is Joe Bastardi, HurricaneJosh, or ORH_wxman What if it's me? Because, you know, I am THAT good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I think we are having two different discussions here. The issue really wasn't questioning what was written or said. It was slamming anyone who tries to bring up anything different for consideration like its some sort of cardinal sin. The problem comes when that person does it all the time simply for hype/views/ratings, et al. especially when 99% of the time, nothing of the sort pans out. It would be much more productive for him to actually analyze, comment, and educate the public on the actual dynamics/probable futures of a system versus throwing out some headliner storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I think we are having two different discussions here. The issue really wasn't questioning what was written or said. It was slamming anyone who tries to bring up anything different for consideration like its some sort of cardinal sin. I didn't slam anyone. Here is what I said again.. Hype machine on full blast.... I like Joe Bastardi but when I read this all I could do at my desk was a big Pickard Facepalm. There are probably countless waves that never impacted land to come off the African coast with this same strength and he compares it to Donna... wth I first said I like Joe Bastardi, then gave reasons why I thought his comparison was bunk. I guess you are also referring to me questioning the poster yesterday who said "Good bye Keys" while posting a single frame of the 192 hour GFS that showed a 989 Low hitting. That was also a valid question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 The first post that brought it up was not slamming "anyone who tries to bring up anything different for consideration" though. It was a criticism of JB because he commonly references the epic storms. No doubt JB looks for the extreme and as you would expect often misses. However the most important events to warn about, as far as life and economic effects are concerned, are the extreme storms. Obviously extreme events occur. Recently they seem to be occurring with disturbing frequency. I look at JB's storm forecasts as a worst possible scenario and something to keep in mind as the event gets closer. If the NWS or NHC begins to rapidly ramp up their storm strength forecast as the event gets closer, as they often do, I revisit JB's forecast with a bit more attention. I think he does serve a purpose. After all Babe Ruth struck out a lot. 1330 times to be exact and at twice the percentage of players in his day. He's still Babe Ruth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 That time of year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Some spin with the new wave coming off Africa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 It IS ridiculous to call out specific analogs for a storm that is still 10 days away from the East Coast. Why not throw out Hugo and Andrew, too? They're both on the table, as well. And Fay...don't forget Fay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Yep. Occasionally the extreme will be no dream. But taking that approach means you will not have a great winning percentage. That's why Ji (I think) referred to him as the Dave Kingman of meteorology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Nah, nothing brewing in the tropics... BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al982011.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201108182101 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2011, DB, O, 2011081818, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982011 AL, 98, 2011081718, , BEST, 0, 116N, 126W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 98, 2011081806, , BEST, 0, 121N, 153W, 25, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 98, 2011081812, , BEST, 0, 123N, 164W, 25, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 98, 2011081818, , BEST, 0, 126N, 176W, 25, 1006, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 000 ABNT20 KNHC 182336 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS BECOMING BETTER-DEFINED AND A SURFACE LOW COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 100 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE GRACIAS A DIOS NICARAGUA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM AS LONG AS THE DISTURBANCE REMAINS OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. TROPICAL-STORM-CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF HONDURAS...THE BAY ISLANDS...GUATEMALA AND BELIZE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER... ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER WARMER WATERS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 MPH. A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WAVE IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $ FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 000 ABNT20 KNHC 182336 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS BECOMING BETTER-DEFINED AND A SURFACE LOW COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 100 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE GRACIAS A DIOS NICARAGUA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM AS LONG AS THE DISTURBANCE REMAINS OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. TROPICAL-STORM-CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF HONDURAS...THE BAY ISLANDS...GUATEMALA AND BELIZE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER... ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER WARMER WATERS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 MPH. A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WAVE IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $ FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN How much for Philly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 How much for Philly? No way, these have Florida and the Gulf written all over them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Looks like 99L is up now as well, West of 98L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Looks like 99L is up now as well, West of 98L. Yep. Boring tropical weather... BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al992011.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201108191924 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 99, 2011, DB, O, 2011081918, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL992011 AL, 99, 2011081818, , BEST, 0, 128N, 238W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 99, 2011081900, , BEST, 0, 125N, 241W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 99, 2011081906, , BEST, 0, 122N, 244W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 99, 2011081912, , BEST, 0, 118N, 246W, 25, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 99, 2011081918, , BEST, 0, 114N, 248W, 25, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 It'd be nice to establish a 1995-like parade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 19, 2011 Author Share Posted August 19, 2011 It's like last year-- a crappy start and then boom!!1! just in time for the climatological peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 It's like last year-- a crappy start and then boom!!1! just in time for the climatological peak. It's pretty crazy that we could be on Katia by this time next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marino13882 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 It's like last year-- a crappy start and then boom!!1! just in time for the climatological peak. Hold on to your britches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 It's like last year-- a crappy start and then boom!!1! just in time for the climatological peak. This year has never been that "crappy" aside from the fact nothing has made it to hurricane intensity. The Atlantic basin has been really efficent the last few weeks and popping out tropical cyclones. It's pretty crazy that we could be on Katia by this time next week. I don't know how many have been following this, but if all of the current invests (97L, 98L, 99L) form over the 3-4 days, we will be ahead of 2005 is total number of named storms. Kinda scary when you think about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 I don't know how many have been following this, but if all of the current invests (97L, 98L, 99L) form over the 3-4 days, we will be ahead of 2005 is total number of named storms. Kinda scary when you think about it. I was trying to compare, named storm wise, this year, 2005, and 1995... on September 1, 1995 we were on Luis, and on September 1, 2005 we were on Lee (with Maria just becoming a TD).... the big difference between the two years, of course, is that 1995 shut down early, while 2005 had an unbelievably active September, October, and November. I also think... albeit it is quite unlikely... that it would be quite ironic if 98L and 99L both formed before 97L... as our Gulf threat would then be Katia, the name that replaced Katrina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 19, 2011 Author Share Posted August 19, 2011 This year has never been that "crappy" aside from the fact nothing has made it to hurricane intensity. The Atlantic basin has been really efficent the last few weeks and popping out tropical cyclones. Quality is a big factor in my book-- and in that book, it's been 100% crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Quality is a big factor in my book-- and in that book, it's been 100% crap. Look on the bright side. If there were 7 landfalling hurricanes already, you'd either be broke from all the travelling or not have any sleep the past month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Quality is a big factor in my book-- and in that book, it's been 100% crap. agreed. we are below normal in ACE, despite being way above the normal # of named storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Quality is a big factor in my book-- and in that book, it's been 100% crap. agreed. we are below normal in ACE, despite being way above the normal # of named storms I'm just hoping we get to the P name... my own name needs to do better than minimal hurricane intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 I'm just hoping we get to the P name... my own name needs to do better than minimal hurricane intensity. I am hoping that philippe obliterates a francophone country/area...martinique sounds like a good target Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 I am hoping that philippe obliterates a francophone country/area...martinique sounds like a good target Wouldn't you prefer French Guiana? Those poor people in Cayenne would just absolutely be stunned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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