am19psu Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I'm starting to buy off on this as a significant threat. About half of the Euro ensemble members came in with a strong system in the vicinity of the Bahamas at Day 9, which is a fairly large increase from where they were at on Tuesday. At these lead times, I prefer to look towards the Euro ensemble members versus the operational runs for guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I still believe this is a 50W developer and the ensembles do raise an eyebrow. One thing that is rather clear is a W moving disturbance in the near term with little development until further down the road. Again the HPC has shifted their thinking a touch W. We will see... FINALLY THERE IS BETTER THAN AVERAGE CLUSTERING FOR A DAY 7 FCST WITH THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM FCST TO REACH CUBA OR THE BAHAMAS AT THAT TIME. THE VARIOUS DETAIL ISSUES MENTIONED ABOVE LEAD TO FAVORING A BLEND OF THE 00Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS THRU THE PERIOD. THIS SOLN IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOMMODATE EXTRAPOLATION OF YDAYS COORDINATED FCST WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM REACHING THE BAHAMAS/CUBA... WITH MODEST ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A TRACK A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE OF THE CURRENT SPREAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 It's been a long time since we've seen the models in such good agreement on a storm bombing as it threatens the U.S. Where is rainstorm to warn about negative NAO, etc.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 It's been a long time since we've seen the models in such good agreement on a storm bombing as it threatens the U.S. Where is rainstorm to warn about negative NAO, etc.? http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/forum/15-weather-forecasting-and-discussion/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I don't think you'd find a Cat 2 child's play by any means. Remember, a Cat 2 is sustained winds of 85 kt or higher-- not gusts. I don't think any storm of any kind has produced sustained winds that high on Long Island since Donna 1960. I've been in many hurricanes-- obviously-- and a solid Cat 2 is still awesome and angry and intense. I agree, a Cat 2 would be a whopper of a storm. Since moving to Wilmington, N.C. in 2003 I've had three direct hits (eye walls) from one high-end TS and two low-end Cat 1s. While not headline-makers, those storms were still ferocious when compared to ones everyday weather! As for nor'easters, I've seen gobs of 'em on the Delaware coast. The great majority of those were gales (fun enough) but every once in a blue moon a full-blown storm would strike. Given the right conditions (season, astronomical tide, duration, etc.), some of those storms were true whoppers. October storms were a hoot because they'd catch northern boaters on their way to Florida and the Caribbean. I've seen some fine motor and sailing boats lying on the beach following those storms! And the surf...oh my! 15 to 18 foot thundering beach breakers that would terrify the average summer tourist (who of course never sees them.) And wind too. Cape Henlopen clocked a 92mph gust with the Halloween storm (which killed several boaters by smashing them and their yacht into the breakwater rocks.) Most memorable of all, when 10 years old I saw (post-storm) the nor'easter apocalypse known as the "Great Atlantic Coastal Storm"(aka "Ash Wednesday Storm") of March 1962. It looked like a tsunami had swept over the coast. The big healthy sand dunes I'd crossed so many times were gone...along with every structure that stood behind them. Of the ocean-front hotel that stood just a half block from the cottage I summered at, only pilings and a bit of scattered debris remained. From what I've read, coastal breakers were estimated to have reached as high as 30 feet at peak storm. Anyway....I'm still awaiting my first ever Cat 2...and I'm sure that too will be a whopper! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al972011.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201108181330 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 97, 2011, DB, O, 2011081812, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL972011 AL, 97, 2011081812, , BEST, 0, 135N, 379W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 6Z GFS beyond the chop, would imply hurricane conditions into Florida, and a solid, if probably ET transitioning storm, into the MA Subforum, bringing joy and unity to the forum. BEGINNHC_ATCFinvest_al972011.investFSTDARU0400100000201108181330NONENOTIFY=ATRPEND INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 97, 2011, DB, O, 2011081812, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL972011AL, 97, 2011081812, , BEST, 0, 135N, 379W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, Edit to add- Darn You, Scorpion! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I'm starting to buy off on this as a significant threat. About half of the Euro ensemble members came in with a strong system in the vicinity of the Bahamas at Day 9, which is a fairly large increase from where they were at on Tuesday. At these lead times, I prefer to look towards the Euro ensemble members versus the operational runs for guidance. Looking at the circ center being pretty far north, circa 14N, hard to agrue with the Euro ens members given that they are supported by historical tracks. I would be highly amused if it never developed though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Looking at the circ center being pretty far north, circa 14N, hard to agrue with the Euro ens members given that they are supported by historical tracks. I would be highly amused if it never developed though. Ditto, though I'd also be quite surprised but in my career I've been surprised a lot. A decent looking circulation, a favorable MJO and model consensus towards developing a storm makes a pretty good argument for a storm when the circulation gets farther away from the SAL and subsidence associated with the subtropical high to the north. We're also ramping up towards the the best time of year for a storm. That said, it would be funny if it didn't develop. Rainstorm would become the new tropical guru. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I would generally keep the frequency and odds in mind when looking at the models and forecast and also how many times the area had been in false alarm hurricane warninga in deciding what to do. Like if I was in Miami and a hurricane warning was in effect, leave town. If Daytona Beach and a hurricane warning is issued, watch radar and wait and if it looks like its going to get bad, go to a local friends house in a safe area and chill. This is just really bad logic. By the time you sit around and wait to see how bad things are, there's a good chance you won't be able to evacuate. This is why so many people get in trouble during hurricanes. They sit around and see how bad things are not knowing that their route out is already under 5 feet of water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi GFS/Euro, forecasting wave as strong as Donna was in 1960 when it came off Africa to emerge off the African coast Sunday Hype machine on full blast.... I like Joe Bastardi but when I read this all I could do at my desk was a big Pickard Facepalm. There are probably countless waves that never impacted land to come off the African coast with this same strength and he compares it to Donna... wth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Hype machine on full blast.... I like Joe Bastardi but when I read this all I could do at my desk was a big Pickard Facepalm. There are probably countless waves that never impacted land to come off the African coast with this same strength and he compares it to Donna... wth They have been showing basically a tropical storm as soon as it goes feet wet. JB didn't actually say it would rip Miami to New England, that was left to the readers' imagination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Looks like if it develops it's going to be a good sized storm--some much needed rain for the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Hype machine on full blast.... I like Joe Bastardi but when I read this all I could do at my desk was a big Pickard Facepalm. There are probably countless waves that never impacted land to come off the African coast with this same strength and he compares it to Donna... wth Debating semantics with every storm ehhh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Debating semantics with every storm ehhh? Yes. Why not? This is a weather forum, I can have an opinion, when someone compares a TW to one of the most costly hurricanes in recorded history, I think it's safe to debate the comparison..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Yes. Why not? This is a weather forum, I can have an opinion, when someone compares a TW to one of the most costly hurricanes in recorded history, I think it's safe to debate the comparison..... Are you really debating his opinion though? Or was the point more to make fun of him? Someone mentions a possible threat and gives an analogue and you find that so ridiculous? I guess I am curious what is so ridiculous about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Are you really debating his opinion though? Or was the point more to make fun of him? Someone mentions a possible threat and gives an analogue and you find that so ridiculous? I guess I am curious what is so ridiculous about it. It IS ridiculous to call out specific analogs for a storm that is still 10 days away from the East Coast. Why not throw out Hugo and Andrew, too? They're both on the table, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 18, 2011 Author Share Posted August 18, 2011 Are you really debating his opinion though? Or was the point more to make fun of him? Someone mentions a possible threat and gives an analogue and you find that so ridiculous? I guess I am curious what is so ridiculous about it. I agree with Hawskfan that it is just not reasonable to compare an open wave to one of the great hurricanes in American history. This is typical of how JB hypes everything and dumbs down the discussion, and I can see why people grow tired of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 18, 2011 Author Share Posted August 18, 2011 It IS ridiculous to call out specific analogs for a storm that is still 10 days away from the East Coast. Why not throw out Hugo and Andrew, too? They're both on the table, as well. Ha! Great minds think a like, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 It IS ridiculous to call out specific analogs for a storm that is still 10 days away from the East Coast. Why not throw out Hugo and Andrew, too? They're both on the table, as well. So if a you were to mention you see some similarities to Donna in the coming pattern, that would be ridiculous too? Even with model support? I doubt anyone here would find it so absurd. But since its Joe, hey, by all means, lets call it ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 18, 2011 Author Share Posted August 18, 2011 So if a you were to mention you see some similarities to Donna in the coming pattern, that would be ridiculous too? Even with model support? I doubt anyone here would find it so absurd. But since its Joe, hey, by all means, lets call it ridiculous. Yes, it is ridiculous. It in no way fosters an intelligent discussion. But of course that's not what he wants-- he's an entertainment act-- so it makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I'm going to Disney World with the family in two weeks or so....I've discovered I have a split personality....I'm really hoping for no extreme weather so my family and I can enjoy our vacation. I'm also really hoping that a hurricane arrives while we are down there so I can have my first TC experience..... (Shhhh!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 So if a you were to mention you see some similarities to Donna in the coming pattern, that would be ridiculous too? Even with model support? I doubt anyone here would find it so absurd. But since its Joe, hey, by all means, lets call it ridiculous. eh enjoy the bold tropical thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 So if a you were to mention you see some similarities to Donna in the coming pattern, that would be ridiculous too? Even with model support? I doubt anyone here would find it so absurd. But since its Joe, hey, by all means, lets call it ridiculous. There is zero chance I would do that for a storm 10 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I agree with Hawskfan that it is just not reasonable to compare an open wave to one of the great hurricanes in American history. This is typical of how JB hypes everything and dumbs down the discussion, and I can see why people grow tired of it. I dont know, I guess I see it as something to consider and discuss in the grand scheme of things. I mean, its weather, who cares if its 10 days away if its on topic and related. Sure he hypes things on occasion, but I will always remember him calling for 30" of snow for DC a week prior to the blizzards on 2010. Everyone though it was "ridiculous" because no one else was calling for that. A week later, we had over 32". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I dont know, I guess I see it as something to consider and discuss in the grand scheme of things. I mean, its weather, who cares if its 10 days away if its on topic and related. Sure he hypes things on occasion, but I will always remember him calling for 30" of snow for DC a week prior to the blizzards on 2010. Everyone though it was "ridiculous" because no one else was calling for that. A week later, we had over 32". If you always swing for the fences, sometime you'll hit a homerun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 18, 2011 Author Share Posted August 18, 2011 I dont know, I guess I see it as something to consider and discuss in the grand scheme of things. I mean, its weather, who cares if its 10 days away if its on topic and related. Sure he hypes things on occasion, but I will always remember him calling for 30" of snow for DC a week prior to the blizzards on 2010. Everyone though it was "ridiculous" because no one else was calling for that. A week later, we had over 32". A broken clock is perfectly correct twice a day. He hypes everything-- every season, every system, everything. It's just boring. And any listener with a brain recognizes the pattern and tunes him out. Ones that aren't as savvy start to not take warnings seriously, since he makes everything sound like it's going to be an historic storm. Re: the pattern being similar to Donna... Well, that's hardly surprising, since we have a wave coming off Africa during peak season. Did we need a wx guru to make this revelation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Yeah when there is a pattern of repeatedly comparing setups to the all time great storms, be it Donna, be it any of the great winter storm bombs, or whatever, then yes it should be called into question, because you could likely find similar patterns also that produced nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 eh enjoy the bold tropical thread Agreed about the weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 If you always swing for the fences, sometime you'll hit a homerun. Yep. Occasionally the extreme will be no dream. But taking that approach means you will not have a great winning percentage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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