WishingForWarmWeather Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Sounds like some traumatizing experiences, and I can see why you feel like you do. I hope you feel better after a while! To be honest, I don't think it will ever go away. But if I were in a controlled situation, I wouldn't mind doing it again. Face your demons and enjoy the amazing things mother nature has to offer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 You are still thinking about the western Pacific, aren't you? lol that was kind of embarrassing. oh boy, sorry guys it's just that the basin so quiet right now, but at least the Atlantic is getting on the action... Yeah that would move Northward before turning NE. The Euro track reminds a lot of Hurricane Floyd from the Bahamas Northward, only closer to the coast this time. Verbatim of course and highly subject to change. thanks, still more than 10 days out though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Now, if I could somehow be in a very safe buildling well above sea level with no loved ones worrying about my safety and knowing that there somehow wouldn't be major/lengthy utilities disruptions to follow as well as blocked roads from fallen trees/flooding, then, yes, I would then possibly consider the experience of a major. But, alas, that's an impossible dream in this area. So, I selfishly don't want a major hit anywhere close to this area even though the tracking of it would be fascinating. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 18, 2011 Author Share Posted August 18, 2011 You and I need to do a chase together, but it's got to be for a Cat 3 or higher. I wouldn't even mind if it was in Central America or something because I haven't been out of the country in a couple of years. Because I've seen noreasters that were as powerful as Cat 2, so that's child's play. I want to catalog everything so I can put it on my site-- I have a few tropical storms and noreaster videos on there, but nothing "major" -- YET. I don't think you'd find a Cat 2 child's play by any means. Remember, a Cat 2 is sustained winds of 85 kt or higher-- not gusts. I don't think any storm of any kind has produced sustained winds that high on Long Island since Donna 1960. I've been in many hurricanes-- obviously-- and a solid Cat 2 is still awesome and angry and intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Back on topic... I haven't looked at all the models recently. Does anyone want to sumamrize the recent trends? I ask about trends, because of course the trends are more important than what the most recent runs show. As far as I have seen, the trends seem to be showing a more powerful TC, and in the vicinity of the western side of FL to the eastern side of FL. I have not in a long time seen such consistency this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 thanks, still more than 10 days out though... Yeah although I have to be honest the model consistency both within each model and the specifically different models is a bit of a eyebrow raiser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 If the 00z ECMWF is correct I'll be packing my Video Camera and heading down to the GA/SC border. I really want to nail an eyewall again, Ike was awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Yeah, I mean... I did the whole 2005-2009 season in NOLA. After Katrina I will never be able to look at hurricanes hitting land the same way ever again. I get anxious, nervous and antsy around this time... like I said, just seeing the globals an models forecasting a hit is enough to choke me up and give me goosebumps for a week. It's awful. All I can see is... man, nevermind. It's too hard to talk about. Sort of like how JoMo will never be able to watch a tornado event the same way again. He already was anxious following the Picher EF4 near-miss in 2008, but to have a massive and devastating EF5 barrel literally yards away from where you live will completely change your views on any kind of severe weather or even weather of any kind, for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Back on topic... I haven't looked at all the models recently. Does anyone want to sumamrize the recent trends? I ask about trends, because of course the trends are more important than what the most recent runs show. The good news is that it appears that the ECWMF has jumped on the bandwagon for a significant tropical cyclone. The Kelvin Wave that CUmet posted about earlier might also give the system more legs than the last couple of invests (92L and 93L). The bad news is that there is still plenty of time for things to go wrong. There is still a pretty significant SAL presence across the system that is suppressing convection currently. Even though the ECWMF is far more bullish in the 00z run, most of the major development occurs post 120 hours, which is a period that I'm not comfortable (nor should anyone else be) trusting global model intensity with tropical cyclones. So in essence my thoughts haven't changed from what I posted last night. This is very much a wait and see deal with watching how this system interacts with both the SAL and the upcoming kelvin wave. Development is still not expected for at least the next 2-3 days until the system approaches the Lesser Antilles, and the ECWMF is suggesting development to not begin in earnest until the system approaches Hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
it*has*an*i Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 NWS in Melbourne mentions it already (Hype) AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 340 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2011 LOOKING OUT TO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT NEXT WEEK...GFS/ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR HISPANIOLA VICINITY TUE...THE SRN BAHAMAS ON WED AND HAVING A CHANCE TO POSSIBLY AFFECT FL JUST BEYOND THE 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD...ASSUMING THIS SYSTEM DOES INDEED DEVELOP AS THE MODELS ARE INDICATING. WOULD NOT NORMALLY MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL SYSTEM AT THIS LONG TIME RANGE BUT THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT AND HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE POTENTIAL OF A SYSTEM FOR MULTIPLE DAYS. AT THIS POINT...IT IS BEST TO CONTINUE TO MAKE PREPARATIONS AS YOU NORMALLY WOULD AS WE ENTER THE PEAK OF THE HURRICANE SEASON FROM MID AUG TO EARLY OCT AND KEEP UP WITH LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS AND FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 NWS in Melbourne mentions it already (Hype) Interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 18, 2011 Author Share Posted August 18, 2011 The good news is that it appears that the ECWMF has jumped on the bandwagon for a significant tropical cyclone. The Kelvin Wave that CUmet posted about earlier might also give the system more legs than the last couple of invests (92L and 93L). The bad news is that there is still plenty of time for things to go wrong. There is still a pretty significant SAL presence across the system that is suppressing convection currently. Even though the ECWMF is far more bullish in the 00z run, most of the major development occurs post 120 hours, which is a period that I'm not comfortable (nor should anyone else be) trusting global model intensity with tropical cyclones. So in essence my thoughts haven't changed from what I posted last night. This is very much a wait and see deal with watching out this system interacts with both the SAL and the upcoming kelvin wave. Development is still not expected for at least the next 2-3 days until the system approaches the Lesser Antilles, and the ECWMF is suggesting development to not begin in earnest until the system approaches Hispaniola. Cool-- thanks. All makes sense. Of course, everyone here understands that models are just models, and no one has expectations that what is shown in Day 10 is going to occur. Again, it's the trends that are interesting-- and in this case, that the Euro has come on board, and that multiple models are now sniffing a significant African cyclone coming further W than any others have over the last couple of years. NWS in Melbourne mentions it already (Hype) Interesting-- thanks for posting that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I don't think you'd find a Cat 2 child's play by any means. Remember, a Cat 2 is sustained winds of 85 kt or higher-- not gusts. I don't think any storm of any kind has produced sustained winds that high on Long Island since Donna 1960. I've been in many hurricanes-- obviously-- and a solid Cat 2 is still awesome and angry and intense. Oh I know (I was employing some hyperbole there lol), I was just trying to be difficult with you (knowing how you'd respond in advance.) I was the one deriding people who didn't take Ike seriously because it supposedly wasn't a "major" hurricane when it hit Texas. Still, if one is going to chase one of these things, it might as well be something worse chasing. The highest winds I've experienced were sustained Cat 1 strength with gusts to Cat 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
it*has*an*i Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Guess where I moved after New Orleans. ....Norman, OK. And, my daughter was actually in a hospital south of Norman during the Tornado outbreak, and it tracked riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight behind the hospital. Windows smashed out, hail the size of flipping softballs, all the power went out, water everywhere, etc etc etc. I mean, I know you know the damage a tornado does. Tornados skeeve me out, too. However, I will never claim to feel about them the way JoMo does. But, I can say, Moore (less than 5 minutes away) boasts the tornado that had the highest recorded winds on Earth. I understand it from that view, too. Just speaking for myself here but I would've stayed in New Orleans ( or near there) due to the chance of experiencing another hurricane in that place again in your lifetime being quite low. Kind of along the idea of lightning doesn't strike the same place twice. By moving, you reset the odds of a disaster striking near you despite the fact that you had already seen your disaster (Katrina). Now move to California and you will probably see an earthquake JS. My area had hurricane Opal in 1995. Also, F3 tornado roared across the street from where I live now 10 yrs ago so this exact spot should be safe for a while. BTW, NWS Jacksonville, also chimes in on undeveloped system AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 407 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2011 MON-WED...LLVL RIDGE EXPECTED TO DROP SWD AND WEAKEN WHILE MID LEVEL HIGH OUT W RETROGRADES INTO THE ROCKIES AND E COAST TROUGHING BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED. A SFC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA WITH MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASED. POPS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BUT WILL CAP AT 40% AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. TEMPS EXPECTED SLIDE TOWARD NORMAL VALUES INTO THE LOWER 90S BY WED. OF SPECIAL NOTE...MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EXTREME S BAHAMAS TO ERN CUBA TUE-WED TIME FRAME. DUE TO MODELS' PERSISTENCE IN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ON SOMETHING FORMING...WILL NEED TO MONITOR FUTURE RUNS CLOSELY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 From what I've observed, model consistency in TC-genesis usually means they see a big storm in terms of size, but not necessarily in terms of intensity. I think we will get a possible large-sized TC from this, but whether this thing ever poses a land threat or how strong it will become remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 NWS in Melbourne mentions it already (Hype) I wouldn't call it hype. I think it goes without saying that in August and September, residents in coastal areas should keep an eye on weather forecasts for possible storms - the consistency in modeling provides a further incentive to do that. That's all they're saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Just speaking for myself here but I would've stayed in New Orleans ( or near there) due to the chance of experiencing another hurricane in that place again in your lifetime being quite low. Kind of along the idea of lightning doesn't strike the same place twice. By moving, you reset the odds of a disaster striking near you despite the fact that you had already seen your disaster (Katrina). Now move to California and you will probably see an earthquake JS. My area had hurricane Opal in 1995. Also, F3 tornado roared across the street from where I live now 10 yrs ago so this exact spot should be safe for a while. BTW, NWS Jacksonville, also chimes in on undeveloped system Well, I didn't move because of Katrina. I stayed for many years after... I moved because I had a child and it is simply not a place to raise a baby. :/ Yeah, haha, you seem pretty safe to get hit with anything too serious. I just dealt with insane blizzards in the winter, insane tornados in the spring, insane heat in the summer, and now I'm getting the heck outta here before whatever crazy weather decides to happen in the fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 There's a huge problem with that line of thinking. Just because you got hit one season doesn't do anything for your chances in subsequent seasons. Also, just because someone hasn't seen a storm within a statistically mean period of repetition, does not mean they are "overdue." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
it*has*an*i Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 There's a huge problem with that line of thinking. Just because you got hit one season doesn't do anything for your chances in subsequent seasons. Also, just because someone hasn't seen a storm within a statistically mean period of repetition, does not mean they are "overdue." Well, TWC (Map here) as well as the NHC (Maps here) both seem to encourage this idea though true, a hurricane is going to go where it wants to go ultimately. I would generally keep the frequency and odds in mind when looking at the models and forecast and also how many times the area had been in false alarm hurricane warninga in deciding what to do. Like if I was in Miami and a hurricane warning was in effect, leave town. If Daytona Beach and a hurricane warning is issued, watch radar and wait and if it looks like its going to get bad, go to a local friends house in a safe area and chill. NWS Tallahassee Notices Un-iinvested tropical wave AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 442 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2011 .LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL FEATURE A RETROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TOWARD THE WESTERN U.S. WHILE MAINTAINING A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EAST...AND A CORRESPONDING WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD WESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THIS FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA WOULD BE THAT TROPICAL SYSTEMS COULD BE STEERED MORE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST...A SITUATION THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING AS THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT WAVE MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC THAT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH SOUTHEAST FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY WANTED TO DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND NOW THE NEW EURO HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS...AND DEVELOPED THE SYSTEM AS WELL. THE CURRENT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF ANY TROPICAL SYSTEM IS JUST OUTSIDE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO FOR NOW EXPECT TEMPS..ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS...TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. POPS WILL START THE WEEK BELOW NORMAL...THEN TREND UPWARDS BACK TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS BY THURSDAY...AS TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 957mb eh, that's a huge step in the strong direction. Oh my god!.. I will be leaving if that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Just speaking for myself here but I would've stayed in New Orleans ( or near there) due to the chance of experiencing another hurricane in that place again in your lifetime being quite low. Kind of along the idea of lightning doesn't strike the same place twice. By moving, you reset the odds of a disaster striking near you despite the fact that you had already seen your disaster (Katrina). Now move to California and you will probably see an earthquake JS. My area had hurricane Opal in 1995. Also, F3 tornado roared across the street from where I live now 10 yrs ago so this exact spot should be safe for a while. I completely disagree with this, the odds of a disaster occurring do not change because of past occurrences. Look at gustav, and all the hurricanes in the gulf every decade. It doesn't work like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Note that this is the earliest U.S. hit (by ~ 12 hours) of the 12 gfs runs in a row showing a hit: late on 8/25 for the upper Keys to early on 8/26 for the SW tip of FL. Now 13: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 So if this is monster Hurricane Harvey in the making, when will this skeleton of a wave begin developing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Now 13: Under 200 hours. South FL, GA, and SC seemingly switching places each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwt Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 So if this is monster Hurricane Harvey in the making, when will this skeleton of a wave begin developing? My gut would be in the 3-5 day range, pretty much no chances before hand given the dry air thats present around this system that is probably at least to some extent getting injested into the circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 My gut would be in the 3-5 day range, pretty much no chances before hand given the dry air thats present around this system that is probably at least to some extent getting injested into the circulation. Then it's doomed. It won't be gaining latitude as much as if it were an intensifying system further east, and it will end up 45 kt south of Puerto Rico, with Hispaniola ready to tear it apart. Then maybe a chance at becoming a minimal hurricane before a future U.S. landfall prospect. If this thing is gonna be something big, it has to develop no later than 58W or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
28storms Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Now 13: It seems like alternating runs have this hitting or going west of FL and the other option seems to be east of FL up into GA and SC. What's causing that, or am I seeing things? What feature is ruling the day 7 days out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 So what happens when there are 5 hurricanes at one time, and another is developing close enough that it needs to have floaters and things designated to it? They just have to wait? Has that ever happened before? For the hurricane models to be run, a request is sent in by folks at NHC, listing up to five storms, in order of preference/importance. In the event that there would be more than five storms, they would prioritize the request in terms of need. I think that in an absolute emergency, we could find a way to fit additional simulations (more than five for a given cycle) on the machine; but I don't think this has ever been done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 06z GFS totally discounts terrain effects of Hispaniola and Cuba, which is why i cannot buy into the forecast yet. Looks to be an "Emily" scenario to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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