WishingForWarmWeather Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Only three go out far enough in time to even have a chance to hit FL: GFS, CDN, and Euro. Euro hadn't hit FL prior to the currently updating run, but the current one may hit. At 192 hours, is in NW Bahamas moving slowly NNW with blocking high pressure to its north likely preventing it from recurving east of the SE US. Edit: look out N FL/GA/S SC. It's just really interesting to me. See? I quoted this as you edited, I think..., but do you not find this consistency between models and from run to run to be uncanny? I really cannot remember the last time this happened. Also, please see below to my post to the other member. Feel free to answer any of those questions with your own thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I think the scariest thing about the model runs is that if the system develops as the EURO has been showing and as the GFS has been showing, then we are talking about the potential for a Frances-type system barreling towards the Southeast Bahamas, although possibly not as large. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 "Hurricane Models" typically refer to the suite of models that are run on a particular system or invest and normally have a restricted domain that captures the environment around the system. Examples of these models are the GFDL and HWRF and their nested grids would likely be too small to detect the presence of a large scale phenomena such as a Kelvin Wave. Global Dynamical Computer Models are likely what you are referring to if you are looking to identify global equatorial waves. The GFS, GGEM (Canadian), and ECWMF are examples of these models. First of all its important to note that kelvin waves are identified through outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) so a model "seeing" a kelvin wave is just seeing the progression of clouds and convection across the lower latitudes that help to lower the OLR. So when a kelvin wave moves across the globe, its tracked by watching a distinct area of lower ORL anomalies progress eastward across the lower latitudes of the Globe. So yes, a model is capable of seeing these waves. However, that is a big difference from a model actually accurately forecasting the proper progression of a kelvin wave. I don't know the full details on this one, but generally the global models don't do a very good job accurately forecasting the progression of such waves. I'm not completely sure, but I believe using a empirical statistical progression forecast of a kelvin wave does a much better job than the global models do themselves. Thank you for clearing that up for me, I was mislabeling what I meant to say. Appreciate all of the info! Do you happen to know if KW's move as these tropical waves do? 10-15 knots across the ocean, yet just in a different direction? Do they have the possibility to stall out? Can a KW be likened to an anti-cyclone in it's "helpfulness" factor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 It's just really interesting to me. See? I quoted this as you edited, I think..., but do you not find this consistency between models and from run to run to be uncanny? I really cannot remember the last time this happened. Also, please see below to my post to the other member. Feel free to answer any of those questions with your own thoughts. I'm not an expert on Kelvin waves. So, I have no comment on that. 0Z Euro tells me I'd likely have to evacuate my area in about a week in advance of a potentially bad blow on 8/27 IF it were to be taken literally. Edit: The good news for me is that the chance of this verifying just like this is, obviously is still quite small since it is nine days out. However, it is getting just a little scarey. This is still more evidence that the GFS has been cleaning the Euro's clock to this point concerning consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I'm not an expert on Kelvin waves. So, I have no comment on that. 0Z Euro tells me I'd likely have to evacuate my area in about a week in advance of a potentially bad blow on 8/27 IF it were to be taken literally. Just... be careful. I know we all love watching a TC get born, grow an do it's thing... but, I went through Katrina in New Orleans. The whole kit and kaboodle... a major hurricane is just not fun to be in; more fun to watch from afar. Keep a weary eye on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I'm not an expert on Kelvin waves. So, I have no comment on that. 0Z Euro tells me I'd likely have to evacuate my area in about a week in advance of a potentially bad blow on 8/27 IF it were to be taken literally. Sorry, I'm tired and not feeling well after 3 different doctor's appointment's today. I meant to say ABOVE. Really, I should have just asked what are your general thoughts on this possible TC. As detailed or not as you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Thank you for clearing that up for me, I was mislabeling what I meant to say. Appreciate all of the info! Do you happen to know if KW's move as these tropical waves do? 10-15 knots across the ocean, yet just in a different direction? Do they have the possibility to stall out? Can a KW be likened to an anti-cyclone in it's "helpfulness" factor? Well I think the term propagate is thrown around because these waves don't really move in the same general sense you would think a tropical cyclone to move. They sorta jump around and are tied to where you see decreased OLR anomalies. There are periods where a kelvin wave might be enhanced or suppressed depending on the location on the globe (you tend to see suppression over low sea surface temperatures, and enhancement over higher sea surface temperatures) This could cause the appearance of slowing down or speeding up as the kelvin wave signal becomes weaker or stronger. As for the "helpfulness" factor, much research is still being conducted to see just how Kelvin Waves influence the environment of tropical disturbance and tropical cyclones. The main two reasons why Kelvin waves can aid in development is that they can lower the environmental shear around a particular disturbance (by decreasing upper level westerlies and decreasing lower level easterlies) while the divergence produced aloft from these waves tends to be favorable for the generation of convection (which is how you get the low ORL anomaly in the first place). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brent Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I cannot believe no one posted it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Just... be careful. I know we all love watching a TC get born, grow an do it's thing... but, I went through Katrina in New Orleans. The whole kit and kaboodle... a major hurricane is just not fun to be in; more fun to watch from afar. Keep a weary eye on this one. There's no way I could stay here in a major even if I were crazy and wanted to stay (which I wouldn't want to do). Staying here in a major would not be fit for many people other than hearty people like Josh. Still, the odds are very low for a major for my area as of now just due to randomness although they're slowly growing. The much better chance would be for a brushing or nonmajor, even if that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Well I think the term propagate is thrown around because these waves don't really move in the same general sense you would think a tropical cyclone to move. They sorta jump around and are tied to where you see decreased OLR anomalies. There are periods where a kelvin wave might be enhanced or suppressed depending on the location on the globe (you tend to see suppression over low sea surface temperatures, and enhancement over higher sea surface temperatures) This could cause the appearance of slowing down or speeding up as the kelvin wave signal becomes weaker or stronger. As for the "helpfulness" factor, much research is still being conducted to see just how Kelvin Waves influence the environment of tropical disturbance and tropical cyclones. The main two reasons why Kelvin waves can aid in development is that they can lower the environmental shear around a particular disturbance (by decreasing upper level westerlies and decreasing lower level easterlies) while the divergence produced aloft from these waves tends to be favorable for the generation of convection (which is how you get the low ORL anomaly in the first place). Ahaaa. See, I imagined a KW just trucked along in the opposite direction as tropical waves. I understand now what you mean, they don't necessarily "move" instead act in more of an ebb and flow type manner. Right? Interesting. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I cannot believe no one posted it 957mb eh, that's a huge step in the strong direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 There's no way I could stay here in a major even if I were crazy and wanted to stay (which I wouldn't want to do). Staying here in a major would not be fit for many people other than hearty people like Josh. Still, the odds are very low for a major for my area as of now just due to randomness although they're slowly growing. The much better chance would be for a brushing or nonmajor, even if that. Of course-- I'm just saying. As someone who truly had NO idea what a hurricane was really all about-- I sort of just thought it would be a very extended thunderstorm-- you would never want to be in the middle of a Cat 4 hurricane hitting land. It's the most awful thing you could ever experience in your entire life. Well... at least one of the most awful things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I cannot believe no one posted it .....jesus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brent Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 .....jesus. That was among my thoughts too. Totally bombs it AFTER Hispanola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Of course-- I'm just saying. As someone who truly had NO idea what a hurricane was really all about-- I sort of just thought it would be a very extended thunderstorm-- you would never want to be in the middle of a Cat 4 hurricane hitting land. It's the most awful thing you could ever experience in your entire life. Well... at least one of the most awful things. I was here for borderline 1/2 David, which was at about the limit I (and more importantly, others who are not as fit as me) could take. I was also here for the Floyd evac., which was a HUGE headache. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Ahaaa. See, I imagined a KW just trucked along in the opposite direction as tropical waves. I understand now what you mean, they don't necessarily "move" instead act in more of an ebb and flow type manner. Right? Interesting. Thank you. Yep, I think you have to gist of it. There are a lot of equatorial waves that work in a very similar fashion such as the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). It is worth noting though that kelvin waves tend to propagate much more quickly than the MJO, so oftentimes you see a lot of interaction between the two as kelvin waves move into and out of the MJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 That was among my thoughts too. Totally bombs it AFTER Hispanola. Seeing a hurricane hit land will always send chills down my spine and put a lump in my throat. I don't think I will ever be able to handle it in the proper or "normal" way ever again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 18, 2011 Author Share Posted August 18, 2011 Seeing a hurricane hit land will always send chills down my spine and put a lump in my throat. I don't think I will ever be able to handle it in the proper or "normal" way ever again. Hmmm. It gives me chills, but the good kind. It's my favorite thing. I never grow tired of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I was here for borderline 1/2 David, which was at about the limit I (and more importantly, others who are not as fit as me) could take. I was also here for the Floyd evac., which was a HUGE headache. Yeah, I mean... I did the whole 2005-2009 season in NOLA. After Katrina I will never be able to look at hurricanes hitting land the same way ever again. I get anxious, nervous and antsy around this time... like I said, just seeing the globals an models forecasting a hit is enough to choke me up and give me goosebumps for a week. It's awful. All I can see is... man, nevermind. It's too hard to talk about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 18, 2011 Author Share Posted August 18, 2011 Yeah, I mean... I did the whole 2005-2009 season in NOLA. After Katrina I will never be able to look at hurricanes hitting land the same way ever again. I get anxious, nervous and antsy around this time... like I said, just seeing the globals an models forecasting a hit is enough to choke me up and give me goosebumps for a week. It's awful. All I can see is... man, nevermind. It's too hard to talk about. This forum is more technical, so we tend to focus less on the human interest end of it and more on the meteorological side of things. If it's going to freak you out, then definitely don't feel like you have to read the threads. We all enjoy discussing this, but if it will put you in a mood, step away from the computer and go take a walk, I say! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Hmmm. It gives me chills, but the good kind. It's my favorite thing. I never grow tired of it. And I can totally understand the obsession, trust me. However, I was smashed in the face with one of the most devastating hurricanes most of us will ever be able to "witness" and completely unprepared. I had literally JUST moved to New Orleans. I got there on August 1st of that year... and settled into my house on August 15th. I packed my car full of my stuff, drove until I got tired, decided I loved the city, and moved there. Bought all of my things in NOLA, and was done setting up my new life on August 15th. And then all hell broke loose. Before that, I was born and raised Jersey (right outside of NYC) for 18 years. I had NO idea what the hell hurricane season meant. The worst feeling of my entire life was that NHC message that they posted that said something along the lines of "God help anyone or anything who is still left in the city". By the time I realized I had to leave, it was IMPOSSIBLE to leave. Took over 20 hours to drive 2 miles. That situation will never be ANYONE'S favorite thing. In your shoes, you plan for it, you fly there, you have an ideal place to hunker down, you have your equipment, and all of your stuff is safe at home in a completely different state. I literally went through Katrina. The whole thing. 30 feet of standing water, bodies floating down the road. The whole thing. ...the whole damn thing. It gives me the chills. Every. Damn. Time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 i know it's silly and too early to talk about the "eventualities" of this system, but just basing on the latest Euro run, it would seem the hurricane would continue moving more northerly towards mid-atlantic, or am i wrong?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 This forum is more technical, so we tend to focus less on the human interest end of it and more on the meteorological side of things. Of course! I'm not faulting you or judging you at all. I can admit that I love the science of it, I love watching them grow in the ocean, I love it. It's beautiful, it truly is. And, I can completely understand why you love what you do! In fact, I think I'd be willing to do what you do. I just experienced my very first hurricane in a way no one would EVER want to. And that is really where my love of weather was born. I was just... you know. Sharing, a bit, if you will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 This forum is more technical, so we tend to focus less on the human interest end of it and more on the meteorological side of things. If it's going to freak you out, then definitely don't feel like you have to read the threads. We all enjoy discussing this, but if it will put you in a mood, step away from the computer, I say! You and I need to do a chase together, but it's got to be for a Cat 3 or higher. I wouldn't even mind if it was in Central America or something because I haven't been out of the country in a couple of years. Because I've seen noreasters that were as powerful as Cat 2, so that's child's play. I want to catalog everything so I can put it on my site-- I have a few tropical storms and noreaster videos on there, but nothing "major" -- YET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 i know it's silly and too early to talk about the "eventualities" of this system, but just basing on the latest Euro run, it would seem the typhoon would continue moving more northerly towards mid-atlantic, or am i wrong?? You are still thinking about the western Pacific, aren't you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 i know it's silly and too early to talk about the "eventualities" of this system, but just basing on the latest Euro run, it would seem the typhoon would continue moving more northerly towards mid-atlantic, or am i wrong?? Yeah that would move Northward before turning NE. The Euro track reminds a lot of Hurricane Floyd from the Bahamas Northward, only closer to the coast this time. Verbatim of course and highly subject to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Yeah, I mean... I did the whole 2005-2009 season in NOLA. After Katrina I will never be able to look at hurricanes hitting land the same way ever again. I get anxious, nervous and antsy around this time... like I said, just seeing the globals an models forecasting a hit is enough to choke me up and give me goosebumps for a week. It's awful. All I can see is... man, nevermind. It's too hard to talk about. Now, if I could somehow be in a very safe buildling well above sea level with no loved ones worrying about my safety and knowing that there somehow wouldn't be major/lengthy utilities disruptions to follow as well as blocked roads from fallen trees/flooding, then, yes, I would then possibly consider the experience of a major. But, alas, that's an impossible dream in this area. So, I selfishly don't want a major hit anywhere close to this area even though the tracking of it would be fascinating. Based on the 1800's. I know that it is only a matter of time...I'm thinking quite possibly within 20 years or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 18, 2011 Author Share Posted August 18, 2011 Of course! I'm not faulting you or judging you at all. I can admit that I love the science of it, I love watching them grow in the ocean, I love it. It's beautiful, it truly is. And, I can completely understand why you love what you do! In fact, I think I'd be willing to do what you do. I just experienced my very first hurricane in a way no one would EVER want to. And that is really where my love of weather was born. I was just... you know. Sharing, a bit, if you will. Sounds like some traumatizing experiences, and I can see why you feel like you do. I hope you feel better after a while! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 You are still thinking about the western Pacific, aren't you? lol that was kind of embarrassing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 18, 2011 Author Share Posted August 18, 2011 Back on topic... I haven't looked at all the models recently. Does anyone want to sumamrize the recent trends? I ask about trends, because of course the trends are more important than what the most recent runs show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.