HurricaneJosh Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 The operational GFS is beginning to sniff out some Carla cradle action in the longer range. Yeah, the 384 GFS has a TC hitting New Orleans. This does match with the Nina climo..... OK, I was mistaken about the last thread. This one will will provoke a good cyclone-- rest assured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 17, 2011 Author Share Posted August 17, 2011 Someone say somethin'. How about that hawt pouch in the far-E reaches of the basin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 OK, I was mistaken about the last thread. This one will will provoke a good cyclone-- rest assured. Various GFS forecasts have you between MIA and MLB next Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Future 97L has a massive circulation... http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640_meteosat.asp?product=tropical_met_4km_visir2_floater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 For the wave WSW of the CV's (aka Pouch P17L), there have been NINE GFS runs in a row showing a U.S. hit! GFS Runs: 06Z Mon: up U.S. East coast 12Z Mon: central LA 8/30 18Z Mon: skirts FL east coast to Charleston 8/27-8 (Davidish) 00Z Tue: Tampa 8/27 06Z Tue: Pensacola 8/28 12Z Tue: S tip FL 8/26 to MS 8/28 18Z Tue: skirts FL east coast to Beaufort, SC 8/27-8 (Davidish) 00Z Wed: FL Keys 8/26 to Apalachicola 8/27 06Z Wed: Ft. Lauderdale 8/26 Last seven runs all impacted part of FL and have all moved within about a 150 mile range into/near S FL 8/26-8/27! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 17, 2011 Author Share Posted August 17, 2011 Wow-- cool list, GaWx! I know the naysayers are gonna go on and on about SAL and how the thing hasn't formed yet and so on... but ya can't help but find this interestin'. (And before anyone says I'm a hater, some of my best friends are naysayers. ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Wow-- cool list, GaWx! I know the naysayers are gonna go on and on about SAL and how the thing hasn't formed yet and so on... but ya can't help but find this interestin'. (And before anyone says I'm a hater, some of my best friends are naysayers. ) no wood here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 17, 2011 Author Share Posted August 17, 2011 no wood here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 For the wave WSW of the CV's (aka Pouch P17L), there have been NINE GFS runs in a row showing a U.S. hit! GFS Runs: 06Z Mon: up U.S. East coast 12Z Mon: central LA 8/30 18Z Mon: skirts FL east coast to Charleston 8/27-8 (Davidish) 00Z Tue: Tampa 8/27 06Z Tue: Pensacola 8/28 12Z Tue: S tip FL 8/26 to MS 8/28 18Z Tue: skirts FL east coast to Beaufort, SC 8/27-8 (Davidish) 00Z Wed: FL Keys 8/26 to Apalachicola 8/27 06Z Wed: Ft. Lauderdale 8/26 Last seven runs all impacted part of FL and have all moved within about a 150 mile range into/near S FL 8/26-8/27! Time to break out the Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 LOL .... yet. Like you say sometimes. Still the windshield wiper thing going on but in a smaller area. No wood until post genesis and some real data can be sent into the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Is that anything worth noting nearing the Yucatan Channel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Also, that mess off the SE coast. Possible frontal TC generation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 I'm going to be out of town the 26-28, so that pretty much guarantees a direct hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 17, 2011 Author Share Posted August 17, 2011 I'm going to be out of town the 26-28, so that pretty much guarantees a direct hit. I like that reasoning. I'll take it! P.S. Would that freak you out if that happened? A chaser friend of mine-- from FL-- was in Vegas when Wilma hit. It was painful for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Is that anything worth noting nearing the Yucatan Channel? Interesting little spin along a wave axis...NE to E flow in the upper levels would suggest nothing more than a curiosity, though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 I like that reasoning. I'll take it! P.S. Would that freak you out if that happened? A chaser friend of mine-- from FL-- was in Vegas when Wilma hit. It was painful for him. It would be pretty devastating. I know it's sacrilegious of me and will annoy some people, but I'm rooting for a TS and no stronger at this point. That way I don't miss out as much if we get hit, and can keep the streak of TSs going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 17, 2011 Author Share Posted August 17, 2011 It would be pretty devastating. I know it's sacrilegious of me and will annoy some people, but I'm rooting for a TS and no stronger at this point. That way I don't miss out as much if we get hit, and can keep the streak of TSs going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 For the wave WSW of the CV's (aka Pouch P17L), there have been NINE GFS runs in a row showing a U.S. hit! GFS Runs: 06Z Mon: up U.S. East coast 12Z Mon: central LA 8/30 18Z Mon: skirts FL east coast to Charleston 8/27-8 (Davidish) 00Z Tue: Tampa 8/27 06Z Tue: Pensacola 8/28 12Z Tue: S tip FL 8/26 to MS 8/28 18Z Tue: skirts FL east coast to Beaufort, SC 8/27-8 (Davidish) 00Z Wed: FL Keys 8/26 to Apalachicola 8/27 06Z Wed: Ft. Lauderdale 8/26 Last seven runs all impacted part of FL and have all moved within about a 150 mile range into/near S FL 8/26-8/27! 10 runs now all showing a US impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 10 runs now all showing a US impact. you get the gfs early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Possible invest mission Saturday on future 97L... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 17, 2011 Author Share Posted August 17, 2011 10 runs now all showing a US impact. Thread title adjusted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 10 runs now all showing a US impact. Really? Or are you projecting ahead from the latest maps? My 12Z GFS is only to hour 84 and has it near the Central L.A.'s. Admittedly, because it looks very similar to the last few runs, I would be surprised if this isn't the tenth in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Thread title adjusted. 12z GFS is brewing, you may need to add another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 12z GFS is brewing, you may need to add another. the 12z gfs would be 10 i think.. but it's not out that far as much as i can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 the 12z gfs would be 10 i think.. but it's not out that far as much as i can tell. Emergency Management has perks I guess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 the 12z gfs would be 10 i think.. but it's not out that far as much as i can tell. It's not. Hr 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 It's not. Hr 102 yeah i have it to 102 on a fast site.. just inside the islands at that pt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 yeah i have it to 102 on a fast site.. just inside the islands at that pt It appears eager to get raped by shrederola. @ Hr114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dolebot_broward_nw Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 For the wave WSW of the CV's (aka Pouch P17L), there have been NINE GFS runs in a row showing a U.S. hit! GFS Runs: 06Z Mon: up U.S. East coast 12Z Mon: central LA 8/30 18Z Mon: skirts FL east coast to Charleston 8/27-8 (Davidish) 00Z Tue: Tampa 8/27 06Z Tue: Pensacola 8/28 12Z Tue: S tip FL 8/26 to MS 8/28 18Z Tue: skirts FL east coast to Beaufort, SC 8/27-8 (Davidish) 00Z Wed: FL Keys 8/26 to Apalachicola 8/27 06Z Wed: Ft. Lauderdale 8/26 Last seven runs all impacted part of FL and have all moved within about a 150 mile range into/near S FL 8/26-8/27! I absolutely LOVE being under the gun at the 10 day point. It virtually assures me that nothing of the sort will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Really? Or are you projecting ahead from the latest maps? My 12Z GFS is only to hour 84 and has it near the Central L.A.'s. Admittedly, because it looks very similar to the last few runs, I would be surprised if this isn't the tenth in a row. All four runs on Monday showed it. All four runs on Tuesday showed it and both runs this morning showed it. Is my math off? This run makes it 11 if it shows up. By my count, Mapgirl looks foolish now with the trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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