MGorse Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Looks like my office and OKX basically requesting a watch box from SPC panned out fairly well this afternoon. Interestingly enough, the 12z SPC WRF actually had the convection exploding into a solid line across southeast PA then weaken as it moved into NJ. Based on radar loops posted earlier and latest radar trends, that is indeed what happened. Also on the radar loop posted earlier, impressive outflow boundary across Chester to Bucks counties then this collided with the ouflow moving northwestward from the storms in southern NJ. The added lift by these allowed new convection to develop and quickly form into a line before getting choked off. Interesting day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Looks like my office and OKX basically requesting a watch box from SPC panned out fairly well this afternoon. Interestingly enough, the 12z SPC WRF actually had the convection exploding into a solid line across southeast PA then weaken as it moved into NJ. Based on radar loops posted earlier and latest radar trends, that is indeed what happened. Also on the radar loop posted earlier, impressive outflow boundary across Chester to Bucks counties then this collided with the ouflow moving northwestward from the storms in southern NJ. The added lift by these allowed new convection to develop and quickly form into a line before getting choked off. Interesting day! Good call, indeed. Outflow boundaries were crazy colliding like they did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Good call, indeed. Outflow boundaries were crazy colliding like they did. Yeah outflow boundaries, storm mergers and the pulse cores made it hard to predict who would get hit or missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief83 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Localized, but very nasty storm in some areas. I was in Royersford, Trappe, Collegeville. Very heavy rain, high wind, many many close lightning strikes. Pretty strong in Collegeville and then did not do much in Worcester. Seems like it slid to the south. Flooding in Norristown, and then over into Plymouth, Whitemarsh and Upper Dublin area. Numerous fire calls. (wires, afa, flooded roads and at least one working fire in Upper Dublin.) One call - not sure what it really was once EMS arrived on the scene, but it was dispatched as an electrocution in the car on Rt 422. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Storms in Mont Co. are sliding a mile or two south of me.....constant CG lightning to my south, bright skies to my north. Not even raining here (atleast not yet). We got a 10 minute pounding in Royersford...f'n crazy lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Looks like my office and OKX basically requesting a watch box from SPC panned out fairly well this afternoon. Interestingly enough, the 12z SPC WRF actually had the convection exploding into a solid line across southeast PA then weaken as it moved into NJ. Based on radar loops posted earlier and latest radar trends, that is indeed what happened. Also on the radar loop posted earlier, impressive outflow boundary across Chester to Bucks counties then this collided with the ouflow moving northwestward from the storms in southern NJ. The added lift by these allowed new convection to develop and quickly form into a line before getting choked off. Interesting day! Good call to go to bat requesting one...panned out pretty darn well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Yeah outflow boundaries, storm mergers and the pulse cores made it hard to predict who would get hit or missed. Well put. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott W Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Just before storm hit in West Chester, looking NW. 1.94" today 3.64" today and yesterday 6.11" last 7 days Max rain rate of 11.29"/hr today (station record!). Max wind - 23mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 We got a 10 minute pounding in Royersford...f'n crazy lightning. Looked like you were on the fence as well, but got hit a bit harder than me. As Chief said in his post, those storms slid "just" south of Worcester/Skippack/Graterford. I could tell Trappe was getting nailed as pitch black skies and constant lightning could be seen to my south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted August 20, 2011 Author Share Posted August 20, 2011 Looks like my office and OKX basically requesting a watch box from SPC panned out fairly well this afternoon. Interestingly enough, the 12z SPC WRF actually had the convection exploding into a solid line across southeast PA then weaken as it moved into NJ. Based on radar loops posted earlier and latest radar trends, that is indeed what happened. Also on the radar loop posted earlier, impressive outflow boundary across Chester to Bucks counties then this collided with the ouflow moving northwestward from the storms in southern NJ. The added lift by these allowed new convection to develop and quickly form into a line before getting choked off. Interesting day! well done. love this capture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Got hit hard here today, the lightning was intense! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcwx Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 I saw that on radar and witnessed it overhead! I live about 4 miles east of Lambertville and it was interesting to see happen. My wife coming home (from the east, from hopewell) encountered hail, 2 fallen trees on rt 518 and needed to pullover due to the intensity of the rainfall. I noticed that the sky kept getting darker and darker. Not the worst storm I experiencedsince moving in but interesting indeed. Looks like my office and OKX basically requesting a watch box from SPC panned out fairly well this afternoon. Interestingly enough, the 12z SPC WRF actually had the convection exploding into a solid line across southeast PA then weaken as it moved into NJ. Based on radar loops posted earlier and latest radar trends, that is indeed what happened. Also on the radar loop posted earlier, impressive outflow boundary across Chester to Bucks counties then this collided with the ouflow moving northwestward from the storms in southern NJ. The added lift by these allowed new convection to develop and quickly form into a line before getting choked off. Interesting day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 well done. love this capture So ... what are we looking at here? An outflow boundary approaching from the SE meeting a gust front from the NW? Pretty cool stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcwx Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 I saw that on radar and witnessed it overhead! I live about 4 miles east of Lambertville and it was interesting to see happen. My wife coming home (from the east, from hopewell) encountered hail, 2 fallen trees on rt 518 and needed to pullover due to the intensity of the rainfall. I noticed that the sky kept getting darker and darker. Not the worst storm I experiencedsince moving in but interesting indeed. also, went into Lambertville to pick up dinner and York St was closed. Numerous firetrucks were on the street. Not sure if someone's house was unfortunatly hit by lightening or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 SPC has a day 2 slight out for our area now, enhanced wording also. ...ERN NY/PA...MD/DE/NJ INTO SRN ME... SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ONGOING ALONG THE COLD FRONT EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS WRN NY/PA. AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD REJUVENATE AND BECOME SEVERE BY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES FOR SEVERE...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WHILE FORCING WILL BE LINEAR ALONG THE FRONT...SHEAR PROFILE ORIENTATION SUGGESTS THAT SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY...PERHAPS SOME SPLITTING GIVEN ONLY MODEST LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE. MESOSCALE DETAILS WILL DETERMINE TORNADO THREAT...WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY ENHANCED ALONG THE RESIDUAL WARM FRONT WITH LOCALLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS. HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE HAIL AND WIND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Just before storm hit in West Chester, looking NW. 1.94" today 3.64" today and yesterday 6.11" last 7 days Max rain rate of 11.29"/hr today (station record!). Max wind - 23mph I was in Royersford, and the sky also looked like it might produce a funnel. But just got caught in seemingly endless heavy rain and big lightning bolts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 I was in Royersford, and the sky also looked like it might produce a funnel. But just got caught in seemingly endless heavy rain and big lightning bolts. It looked that way as I headed north on I-476 near Allentown yesterday afternoon as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 little excerpt from the spc on sundays svr risk ..ERN NY/PA...MD/DE/NJ INTO SRN ME... SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ONGOING ALONG THE COLD FRONT EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS WRN NY/PA. AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD REJUVENATE AND BECOME SEVERE BY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES FOR SEVERE...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WHILE FORCING WILL BE LINEAR ALONG THE FRONT...SHEAR PROFILE ORIENTATION SUGGESTS THAT SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY...PERHAPS SOME SPLITTING GIVEN ONLY MODEST LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE. MESOSCALE DETAILS WILL DETERMINE TORNADO THREAT...WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY ENHANCED ALONG THE RESIDUAL WARM FRONT WITH LOCALLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS. HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE HAIL AND WIND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 little excerpt from the spc on sundays svr risk ..ERN NY/PA...MD/DE/NJ INTO SRN ME... SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ONGOING ALONG THE COLD FRONT EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS WRN NY/PA. AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD REJUVENATE AND BECOME SEVERE BY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES FOR SEVERE...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WHILE FORCING WILL BE LINEAR ALONG THE FRONT...SHEAR PROFILE ORIENTATION SUGGESTS THAT SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY...PERHAPS SOME SPLITTING GIVEN ONLY MODEST LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE. MESOSCALE DETAILS WILL DETERMINE TORNADO THREAT...WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY ENHANCED ALONG THE RESIDUAL WARM FRONT WITH LOCALLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS. HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE HAIL AND WIND. <knock on wood> I'm pleased to have apparently ushered in all the weather to the region (well, except for the extra work that the Mt. Holly guys have had to do to keep up). Maybe this will be the grand finale (I leave Monday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Weather here the last 7 days: 8/12 85 58 0.00 (Davis tipping bucket 0.00) 8/13 86 61 0.13 (Davis tipping bucket 0.13) 8/14 72 67 4.84 (Davis tipping bucket 4.54) 8/15 78 65 0.82 (Davis tipping bucket 0.80) 8/16 78 67 0.18 (Davis tipping bucket 0.14) 8/17 88 63 0.00 (Davis tipping bucket 0.00) 8/18 86 67 0.35 (Davis tipping bucket 0.34) 8/19 86 66 0.72 (Davis tipping bucket 0.77) Total rain: 7.04 (Davis tipping bucket 6.72) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Can you make a return trip when it's cold enough for snow ray?!?! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Hi -- 3 PM Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Hope this is the way to post youtube stuff.Anyhow this was filmed by me using my attic window open during the time of the storm that struck the area between 1:30 to about 4 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 0z SPC WRF generally agrees with 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Not bad at all, SPC has our area in the slight risk, with 5/30/15 probs. Tornado/wind/hail. DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2011 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING SWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND ANCHORED BY A VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY WILL UNDERGO FURTHER AMPLIFICATION AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ESEWD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO NY/PA THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AT 12Z SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE PARENT LONGWAVE TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND SWWD FROM SRN ONTARIO THROUGH THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO CENTRAL AR AND WWD INTO OK. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROGRESS E/SEWD MOVING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND EXTEND WSWWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES BY 12Z MONDAY. FARTHER W...AN IMPULSE EMANATING FROM AN UPPER LOW ALONG THE NRN CA COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WRN/NRN MT THIS AFTERNOON AIDING IN SOME TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...TENDING TO LIMIT TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ...MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO NEW ENGLAND... 00Z NAM/GFS AND 12Z ECMWF AGREE WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY...REACHING NRN NY TO WRN PA/UPPER OH VALLEY DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND THE ARRIVAL OF FORCING ALOFT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS GOOD FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. SWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TO WRN PA AND SSWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS IN LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE HUDSON VALLEY/NEW ENGLAND WILL EACH SUPPORT MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THESE REGIONS. ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE MODEST /AOB 6.5 C PER KM/ ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM MD/D.C./DELMARVA TO SERN/ERN NY AND SWRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPE ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR WILL BE UP TO 1500-2000 J/KG WHILE FURTHER W OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY VALUES WILL BE UP TO 1000 J/KG. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND CONVERGENCE/ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL/LEE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM VA TO ERN NY WILL SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON IN VICINITY AND AHEAD OF THESE SURFACE BOUNDARIES. STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT COMBINED WITH THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS. SHEAR VECTORS MORE NORMAL TO THE LEE TROUGH SUGGEST A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. VERTICALLY VEERING WINDS AND HIGHER THETAE EXTENDING FROM MD/ERN PA TO SERN NY/SWRN NEW ENGLAND SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. FARTHER W INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY...ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE WEAKENING THIS EVENING...A FURTHER INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS INTO THE NERN STATES AND 60-90 METER HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD COMPENSATE THE WEAKER THERMODYNAMICS FOR AT LEAST A CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND AS STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ SUPPORTS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 On paper, best potential for the season so far...but on paper and reality don't always mix. We've done better this year on the 'sneak attack' severe events that don't show up as well on paper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 incoming storm down by aberdeen md...should pass near/just south of city 10-11 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 looks like an interesting day shaping up. I spend my time between the poconos and the NJ shore, southern monmouth and let me say this year thus far has been absolutely crazy when it comes to storms. I have seen everything but rotation on the ground. Good luck everyone and be safe on the chase!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Small cells starting to fire already across central and eastern PA. All of the sudden it just got dark here. If it remains cloudy, we may not get the big cells later this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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