greg ralls Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I did a little research (thanks to phillyweather.net at the NWS site in Mt. Holly), and it now looks like Philly is in the midst of the wettest August in any of our lifetimes (with apologies to those over 100 years old). I'm basing this off of the 10.26" of rainfall this month that was listed under the Preliminary Monthly Climate Data page plus the 0.56" received in the 6 hours preceding 7:54 AM EDT today, and the 0.68" of precipitation last hour on the Observations page. Philly’s Wettest Augusts August 1911 12.10” August 2011 11.50” August 1873 11.49” August 2009 10.29” Philly’s Wettest Months September 1999 13.07” August 1911 12.10” September 1882 12.09” August 2011 11.50” August 1873 11.49” July 1994 10.42” July 1930 10.30” August 2009 10.29” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I did a little research (thanks to phillyweather.net at the NWS site in Mt. Holly), and it now looks like Philly is in the midst of the wettest August in any of our lifetimes (with apologies to those over 100 years old). I'm basing this off of the 10.26" of rainfall this month that was listed under the Preliminary Monthly Climate Data page plus the 0.56" received in the 6 hours preceding 7:54 AM EDT today, and the 0.68" of precipitation last hour on the Observations page. Philly’s Wettest Augusts August 1911 12.10” August 2011 11.50” August 1873 11.49” August 2009 10.29” Philly’s Wettest Months September 1999 13.07” August 1911 12.10” September 1882 12.09” August 2011 11.50” August 1873 11.49” July 1994 10.42” July 1930 10.30” August 2009 10.29” it would be real interesting how many of the wet months had a tropical storm influence? Can you show this? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 this is a ways out in nam land, but this would not be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 It's quiet in here today (maybe this subforum needs some rumors and drama flying around ), just waiting for the radar to start firing up again with sun back to heat and mix things up. 82/70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Anyone else seeing those nasty storm tops? In centercity and those things are all the way up there! Nice thermos, no shear though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 That little blip in MontCo. passed right over my house with a brief downpour under mostly sunny skies....a few rumbles of thunder as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 312 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2011 COUNTY SPECIFIC MESSAGE: /O.NEW.KPHI.FF.A.0007.110819T0800Z-110820T1000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER- SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND- ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC- COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS- DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN... FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO... CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON... MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY... ATLANTIC CITY...LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST... WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA 312 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2011 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES OF BUCKS, MONTGOMERY, CHESTER, DELAWARE AND PHILADELPHIA, FOR THE NEW JERSEY COUNTIES OF MERCER, MONMOUTH, OCEAN, BURLINGTON, CAMDEN, GLOUCESTER, SALEM, CUMBERLAND, ATLANTIC AND CAPE MAY, FOR NEW CASTLE COUNTY IN DELAWARE AND FOR CECIL AND KENT COUNTIES IN MARYLAND. * FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT * SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS IN OUR REGION ARE NEARLY SATURATED DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL. ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. AFFECTED COUNTIES: IN DELAWARE: NEW CASTLE. IN MARYLAND: CECIL, KENT. IN NEW JERSEY: ATLANTIC, ATLANTIC, COASTAL, BURLINGTON, BURLINGTON, NORTHWESTERN, BURLINGTON, SOUTHEASTERN, CAMDEN, CAPE MAY, CAPE MAY, COASTAL, CUMBERLAND, GLOUCESTER, MERCER, MONMOUTH, MONMOUTH, EASTERN, MONMOUTH, WESTERN, OCEAN, OCEAN, COASTAL, SALEM. IN PENNSYLVANIA: BUCKS, CHESTER, DELAWARE, MONTGOMERY, PHILADELPHIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 ggem sees what the nam saw at 12z with the potential for hvy rain sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Some Nice ctg strikes in center city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Some Nice ctg strikes in center city tempted to chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 got poured on about 30 minutes ago while driving along 422. Not like this guy though: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 New AFD thinks NAM is overdone. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A STRONGER SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE HEIGHTS FALL MORE SUBSTANTIALLY AND A BELT OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH, A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE THREAT MAY UNFOLD. AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLY EVEN INITIALLY WITH A LEE SIDE TROUGH OR LEAD WEAK SURFACE DISTURBANCE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITHE SOME SIGNALS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE POINTING TO SOME ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STRONGER CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT, THE 12Z NAM LOOKS OVERDONE WITH ITS STRONGER AND MORE CONSOLIDATED SURFACE REFLECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD BE SHUNTED TO OUR EAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE LINGERS THE FRONT BACK SOME MONDAY WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION, HOWEVER FOR NOW WE WILL PUSH THE FRONT FAR ENOUGH EAST AND JUST KEEP A SLIGHT CHC POP MAINLY INLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 341 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2011 ...PLENTY OF RAIN FOR AUGUST 2011... THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN VERY HEAVY THIS MONTH ACROSS A DECENT PORTION OF THE REGION, WHICH HAS LED TO AREAS OF FLOODING. THE RAIN TOTALS HAVE BEEN CLIMBING THE RECORDS LIST AS WELL AT SOME SITES. BELOW IS A RANKING SUMMARY LIST OF SOME OF THE CLIMATE SITES. THUS FAR, PHILADELPHIA HAS PICKED UP THE MOST AND WE WILL LIKELY ADD TO THESE TOTALS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH. ALLENTOWN, PENNSYLVANIA SHOULD END UP IN THE TOP 10 FOR WETTEST AUGUSTS. ...PHILADELPHIA... WETTEST AUGUSTS --------------- 1) 12.10 INCHES IN AUGUST 1911 2) 11.50 INCHES IN AUGUST 2011 3) 11.49 INCHES IN AUGUST 1873 4) 10.29 INCHES IN AUGUST 2009 5) 9.84 INCHES IN AUGUST 1933 WETTEST MONTHS -------------- 1) 13.07 INCHES IN SEPTEMBER 1999 2) 12.10 INCHES IN AUGUST 1911 3) 12.09 INCHES IN SEPTEMBER 1882 4) 11.50 INCHES IN AUGUST 2011 5) 11.49 INCHES IN AUGUST 1873 ...TRENTON... WETTEST AUGUSTS --------------- 1) 10.07 INCHES IN AUGUST 2009 2) 6.56 INCHES IN AUGUST 2011 3) 4.34 INCHES IN AUGUST 2004 4) 4.06 INCHES IN AUGUST 2002 5) 3.53 INCHES IN AUGUST 1945 ...MOUNT POCONO... WETTEST AUGUSTS --------------- 1) 10.78 INCHES IN AUGUST 2004 2) 5.99 INCHES IN AUGUST 2009 3) 5.62 INCHES IN AUGUST 2006 4) 5.58 INCHES IN AUGUST 2011 5) 5.28 INCHES IN AUGUST 2003 ...ALLENTOWN... WETTEST AUGUSTS --------------- 1) 12.10 INCHES IN AUGUST 1955 2) 11.00 INCHES IN AUGUST 1933 3) 9.95 INCHES IN AUGUST 1928 4) 9.42 INCHES IN AUGUST 1974 5) 9.25 INCHES IN AUGUST 1971 6) 8.95 INCHES IN AUGUST 1978 7) 8.74 INCHES IN AUGUST 1942 8) 8.43 INCHES IN AUGUST 1982 9) 7.49 INCHES IN AUGUST 1927 10) 7.09 INCHES IN AUGUST 1987 11) 7.01 INCHES IN AUGUST 1954 12) 6.69 INCHES IN AUGUST 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 New AFD thinks NAM is overdone. Considering the NAM yesterday was underdone on precip totals...I'm not so sure I can agree. It'll overdo clouds and lower temps but the NAM's been good of late on QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 got poured on about 30 minutes ago while driving along 422. Not like this guy though: Dude needs to post here and check our obs. out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott W Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 FFW out for tonight and tomorrow for central and northern areas: ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATEFRIDAY NIGHT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES OF BUCKS, MONTGOMERY, CHESTER, DELAWARE AND PHILADELPHIA, FOR THE NEW JERSEY COUNTIES OF MERCER, MONMOUTH, OCEAN, BURLINGTON, CAMDEN, GLOUCESTER, SALEM, CUMBERLAND, ATLANTIC AND CAPE MAY, FOR NEW CASTLE COUNTY IN DELAWARE AND FOR CECIL AND KENT COUNTIES IN MARYLAND.* FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS IN OUR REGION ARE NEARLY SATURATED DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL. ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Considering the NAM yesterday was underdone on precip totals...I'm not so sure I can agree. It'll overdo clouds and lower temps but the NAM's been good of late on QPF. We mentioned, "AT THIS POINT, THE 12Z NAM LOOKS OVERDONE WITH ITS STRONGER AND MORE CONSOLIDATED SURFACE REFLECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON". Nothing there says the QPF may be overdone. Some spots may end up getting a lot of rain, but the 12z NAM may be to widespread with its bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 15z srefs indiv and mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 We mentioned, "AT THIS POINT, THE 12Z NAM LOOKS OVERDONE WITH ITS STRONGER AND MORE CONSOLIDATED SURFACE REFLECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON". Nothing there says the QPF may be overdone. Some spots may end up getting a lot of rain, but the 12z NAM may be to widespread with its bullseye. The NAM has had a similar QPF bomb (placement has varied) for three runs in a row going back to 0z. You're right on the geography being more widespread on the 12z...perhaps too much so (don't dispute that)...but there's a pretty consistent signal by the NAM for a possible MCS/heavy thunderstorm event of some sort later this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 NAM has some backing atleast at 12z with RGEM....should be interesting to see how it plays out. The way the past month has been.........its finding a way to rain given any chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 341 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2011 ...PLENTY OF RAIN FOR AUGUST 2011... THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN VERY HEAVY THIS MONTH ACROSS A DECENT PORTION OF THE REGION, WHICH HAS LED TO AREAS OF FLOODING. THE RAIN TOTALS HAVE BEEN CLIMBING THE RECORDS LIST AS WELL AT SOME SITES. BELOW IS A RANKING SUMMARY LIST OF SOME OF THE CLIMATE SITES. THUS FAR, PHILADELPHIA HAS PICKED UP THE MOST AND WE WILL LIKELY ADD TO THESE TOTALS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH. ALLENTOWN, PENNSYLVANIA SHOULD END UP IN THE TOP 10 FOR WETTEST AUGUSTS. ...PHILADELPHIA... WETTEST AUGUSTS --------------- 1) 12.10 INCHES IN AUGUST 1911 2) 11.50 INCHES IN AUGUST 2011 3) 11.49 INCHES IN AUGUST 1873 4) 10.29 INCHES IN AUGUST 2009 5) 9.84 INCHES IN AUGUST 1933 WETTEST MONTHS -------------- 1) 13.07 INCHES IN SEPTEMBER 1999 2) 12.10 INCHES IN AUGUST 1911 3) 12.09 INCHES IN SEPTEMBER 1882 4) 11.50 INCHES IN AUGUST 2011 5) 11.49 INCHES IN AUGUST 1873 ...TRENTON... WETTEST AUGUSTS --------------- 1) 10.07 INCHES IN AUGUST 2009 2) 6.56 INCHES IN AUGUST 2011 3) 4.34 INCHES IN AUGUST 2004 4) 4.06 INCHES IN AUGUST 2002 5) 3.53 INCHES IN AUGUST 1945 ...MOUNT POCONO... WETTEST AUGUSTS --------------- 1) 10.78 INCHES IN AUGUST 2004 2) 5.99 INCHES IN AUGUST 2009 3) 5.62 INCHES IN AUGUST 2006 4) 5.58 INCHES IN AUGUST 2011 5) 5.28 INCHES IN AUGUST 2003 ...ALLENTOWN... WETTEST AUGUSTS --------------- 1) 12.10 INCHES IN AUGUST 1955 2) 11.00 INCHES IN AUGUST 1933 3) 9.95 INCHES IN AUGUST 1928 4) 9.42 INCHES IN AUGUST 1974 5) 9.25 INCHES IN AUGUST 1971 6) 8.95 INCHES IN AUGUST 1978 7) 8.74 INCHES IN AUGUST 1942 8) 8.43 INCHES IN AUGUST 1982 9) 7.49 INCHES IN AUGUST 1927 10) 7.09 INCHES IN AUGUST 1987 11) 7.01 INCHES IN AUGUST 1954 12) 6.69 INCHES IN AUGUST 2011 Thanks for the data. It has been proven real interesting with this data, that there is a pretty good chance of tropical development coming our way in September or October. Hurricanes in 1955, 1933 and 1911 struck our area. from August through October. This does not bode well for the flooded areas the past two weeks. Were those transition years from La Nina to El Nino for tropical development, the same years as the storms hit our areas? Just curious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 phlwx wrote...The NAM has had a similar QPF bomb (placement has varied) for three runs in a row going back to 0z. You're right on the geography being more widespread on the 12z...perhaps too much so (don't dispute that)...but there's a pretty consistent signal by the NAM for a possible MCS/heavy thunderstorm event of some sort later this weekend. I do not think what the NAM is showing later Sunday is an MCS. It becomes more robust with a surface low that develops along the front which therefore cranks up the QPF. I guess we can agree to disagree on this. I do agree that there is a decent signal by the NAM of locally very heavy rain (somewhere) later this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Edit: cell popped up on radar over Langhorne. This is the most thunder I've heard this year and yet not a drop of rain (0.17" this AM though) frequent thunder/lightning here...almost constant actually. despite nothing on radar except that storm near KDIX which, by the way, is right out my window: boy would i love that storm down in Cecil Co MD to ride up 95 and give me a nice going-away present Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Edit: cell popped up on radar over Langhorne. This is the most thunder I've heard this year and yet not a drop of rain (0.17" this AM though) frequent thunder/lightning here...almost constant actually. despite nothing on radar except that storm near KDIX which, by the way, is right out my window: boy would i love that storm down in Cecil Co MD to ride up 95 and give me a nice going-away present This is the last time you'll be around here for how long or for good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 This is the last time you'll be around here for how long or for good? 4 days in October and then Thanksgiving week. I'm not going away forever, lol Oh and I meant to say that the storm pic was the one over Wrightstown, NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 New storm NW of Oxford on the Chester/Lancaster line is developing a tiny bit of rotation it appears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Reporting in from Oak Island, pretty wild day weather wise down here today, at least four waterspouts between Carolina Beach & Myrtle Beach , the one in Carolina Beach actually came on shore - video is really cool there was a small waterspout that did touch down off Oak Island but by the time I ran back to the house to grab the camera it had receeded for the most part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Chesco is really blowing up on radar. Damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Reporting in from Oak Island, pretty wild day weather wise down here today, at least four waterspouts between Carolina Beach & Myrtle Beach , the one in Carolina Beach actually came on shore - video is really cool there was a small waterspout that did touch down off Oak Island but by the time I ran back to the house to grab the camera it had receeded for the most part Awesome stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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