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More (Heavy?) Rain/T-Storms 8/18-8/21 Discussion/OBS


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I'm about 5-10 miles SSW of ABE. They probably didn't get the gusts we got in west Allentown. I'm guessing they peaked at maybe 40-45 mph.

Ah, okay. Just checking as I wanted to be sure it was not severe as we had an SPS out on it and not a warning. Thanks for the additional info.

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Nice writeup Mike. Shows that we're not done by any means, and if anything, the parameters for severe are actually increasing.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

-- Changed Discussion --AN 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA

DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A TROUGH WAS ACROSS EASTERN

PENNSYLVANIA DOWN INTO VIRGINIA. AN UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACED A

LARGE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO

VALLEY. A STRONG 300 MB JET WAS FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE EASTERN

GREAT LAKES REGION.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 794 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA

UNTIL 01Z.

A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID

ATLANTIC REGIONS TONIGHT WITH FALLING HEIGHTS. THE COMBINATION OF

INCREASED SHEAR WITH AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1500-2000

J/KG/ AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS ALLOWING FOR CONVECTIVE

DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE FLOW NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL ABOVE THE SURFACE,

STORM MODE HAS BEEN TENDING TO BE IN LINE SEGMENTS WITH A LOCALLY

INCREASING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND THREAT. HOWEVER SPECIAL

16-18Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE FLOW BACKING A BIT IN THE LOWEST

LEVELS WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THE PRESENCE OF A

LOW-LEVEL JET THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY ALSO ENHANCE THE DAMAGING

WIND THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. THE INITIAL CONVECTION LOOKS

TO SHIFT EASTWARD, HOWEVER A SECOND ROUND LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY

STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS AND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. THE

MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND -10C WILL ALLOW FOR SOME HAIL WITH

SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE IN ASSOCIATION WITH MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS

ESPECIALLY ANY WITH ROTATION ALOFT. THE MOIST LOW LEVELS WITH SOME

VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN THE LOWEST LEVELS ESPECIALLY IN THE PRESENCE

OF A LEE SIDE TROUGH AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD ALLOW FOR LOCALLY

ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL STORM ROTATION AND DISCRETE STORMS. THE MAIN

THREAT IS DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE SURFACE WINDS WITH ANY LINE

SEGMENTS, ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE SOME LOCAL LOWER LEVEL ROTATION

GIVEN THE SHEAR IN PLACE. WE WILL CONTINUE THE ENHANCED WORDING OF

STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH ABOUT 01Z.

THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER DESPITE THE

AIRMASS BECOMING MORE STABLE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND ONGOING

CONVECTION, THE WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO STRENGTH ALOFT WHICH MAY

BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE WILL

STEP THE POPS DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE

COVERAGE AND SEVERITY IS ANTICIPATED TO LESS DEEPER INTO THE NIGHT.

OTHERWISE, THE CLOUDS WILL THIN AND WITH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE

ATMOSPHERE REMAINING MOIST, THERE COULD BE PATCHY FOG. GIVEN LOWER

CONFIDENCE WITH THIS WE OPTED TO LEAVE IT OUT ATTM. AS FOR

TEMPERATURES WE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE NAM/MOS GUIDANCE.-- End Changed Discussion --

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Nice writeup Mike. Shows that we're not done by any means, and if anything, the parameters for severe are actually increasing.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

-- Changed Discussion --AN 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA

DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A TROUGH WAS ACROSS EASTERN

PENNSYLVANIA DOWN INTO VIRGINIA. AN UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACED A

LARGE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO

VALLEY. A STRONG 300 MB JET WAS FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE EASTERN

GREAT LAKES REGION.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 794 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA

UNTIL 01Z.

A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID

ATLANTIC REGIONS TONIGHT WITH FALLING HEIGHTS. THE COMBINATION OF

INCREASED SHEAR WITH AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1500-2000

J/KG/ AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS ALLOWING FOR CONVECTIVE

DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE FLOW NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL ABOVE THE SURFACE,

STORM MODE HAS BEEN TENDING TO BE IN LINE SEGMENTS WITH A LOCALLY

INCREASING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND THREAT. HOWEVER SPECIAL

16-18Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE FLOW BACKING A BIT IN THE LOWEST

LEVELS WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THE PRESENCE OF A

LOW-LEVEL JET THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY ALSO ENHANCE THE DAMAGING

WIND THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. THE INITIAL CONVECTION LOOKS

TO SHIFT EASTWARD, HOWEVER A SECOND ROUND LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY

STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS AND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. THE

MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND -10C WILL ALLOW FOR SOME HAIL WITH

SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE IN ASSOCIATION WITH MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS

ESPECIALLY ANY WITH ROTATION ALOFT. THE MOIST LOW LEVELS WITH SOME

VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN THE LOWEST LEVELS ESPECIALLY IN THE PRESENCE

OF A LEE SIDE TROUGH AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD ALLOW FOR LOCALLY

ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL STORM ROTATION AND DISCRETE STORMS. THE MAIN

THREAT IS DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE SURFACE WINDS WITH ANY LINE

SEGMENTS, ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE SOME LOCAL LOWER LEVEL ROTATION

GIVEN THE SHEAR IN PLACE. WE WILL CONTINUE THE ENHANCED WORDING OF

STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH ABOUT 01Z.

THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER DESPITE THE

AIRMASS BECOMING MORE STABLE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND ONGOING

CONVECTION, THE WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO STRENGTH ALOFT WHICH MAY

BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE WILL

STEP THE POPS DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE

COVERAGE AND SEVERITY IS ANTICIPATED TO LESS DEEPER INTO THE NIGHT.

OTHERWISE, THE CLOUDS WILL THIN AND WITH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE

ATMOSPHERE REMAINING MOIST, THERE COULD BE PATCHY FOG. GIVEN LOWER

CONFIDENCE WITH THIS WE OPTED TO LEAVE IT OUT ATTM. AS FOR

TEMPERATURES WE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE NAM/MOS GUIDANCE.-- End Changed Discussion --

That definitely answers my question.

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Nice writeup Mike. Shows that we're not done by any means, and if anything, the parameters for severe are actually increasing.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

-- Changed Discussion --AN 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA

DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A TROUGH WAS ACROSS EASTERN

PENNSYLVANIA DOWN INTO VIRGINIA. AN UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACED A

LARGE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO

VALLEY. A STRONG 300 MB JET WAS FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE EASTERN

GREAT LAKES REGION.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 794 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA

UNTIL 01Z.

A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID

ATLANTIC REGIONS TONIGHT WITH FALLING HEIGHTS. THE COMBINATION OF

INCREASED SHEAR WITH AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1500-2000

J/KG/ AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS ALLOWING FOR CONVECTIVE

DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE FLOW NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL ABOVE THE SURFACE,

STORM MODE HAS BEEN TENDING TO BE IN LINE SEGMENTS WITH A LOCALLY

INCREASING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND THREAT. HOWEVER SPECIAL

16-18Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE FLOW BACKING A BIT IN THE LOWEST

LEVELS WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THE PRESENCE OF A

LOW-LEVEL JET THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY ALSO ENHANCE THE DAMAGING

WIND THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. THE INITIAL CONVECTION LOOKS

TO SHIFT EASTWARD, HOWEVER A SECOND ROUND LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY

STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS AND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. THE

MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND -10C WILL ALLOW FOR SOME HAIL WITH

SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE IN ASSOCIATION WITH MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS

ESPECIALLY ANY WITH ROTATION ALOFT. THE MOIST LOW LEVELS WITH SOME

VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN THE LOWEST LEVELS ESPECIALLY IN THE PRESENCE

OF A LEE SIDE TROUGH AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD ALLOW FOR LOCALLY

ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL STORM ROTATION AND DISCRETE STORMS. THE MAIN

THREAT IS DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE SURFACE WINDS WITH ANY LINE

SEGMENTS, ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE SOME LOCAL LOWER LEVEL ROTATION

GIVEN THE SHEAR IN PLACE. WE WILL CONTINUE THE ENHANCED WORDING OF

STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH ABOUT 01Z.

THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER DESPITE THE

AIRMASS BECOMING MORE STABLE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND ONGOING

CONVECTION, THE WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO STRENGTH ALOFT WHICH MAY

BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE WILL

STEP THE POPS DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE

COVERAGE AND SEVERITY IS ANTICIPATED TO LESS DEEPER INTO THE NIGHT.

OTHERWISE, THE CLOUDS WILL THIN AND WITH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE

ATMOSPHERE REMAINING MOIST, THERE COULD BE PATCHY FOG. GIVEN LOWER

CONFIDENCE WITH THIS WE OPTED TO LEAVE IT OUT ATTM. AS FOR

TEMPERATURES WE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE NAM/MOS GUIDANCE.-- End Changed Discussion --

That definitely answers my question.

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