WC's 2011's Top 5 Hurricane Overdue Cities article

[ORH_wxman]

It would take a lot, but DC wouldn't fair well with a strong hurricane... especially with the Bay/Potomac nearby. I always thought we caught a bit of a break up here with Isabel. Emily in 1993 was a bit menacing, but stayed far enough offshore. I am not sure how DC would fair if a Cat 3 cane were to strike Norfolk lets say and move be moving NW at 15-20 mph.

DC is in the same boat as NYC for this, except even more unlikely to experience the "perfect track". Isabel was a big scare, but it didn't quite happen. The outer banks of NC "protect" that area from hurricanes in addition to the far west longitude. But Isabel almost circumnavigated those obstacles....but Isabel proved in the end how hard it is to get a big landfall near there. Virginia has so many vulnerable inlets that could be disastrous for a landfalling hurricane but they are just too far west and facing at the wrong angle to be threatened by hurricanes. At some point, one will hit, but the chances are ridiculously low that its hardly worth mentioning. New Orleans might get a direct hit 3-5 times before that type of crushing track happens for VA/DC.

[ORH_wxman]

HurricaneJosh is browsing...his nemesis....Northeast hurricanes.

[yoda]

DC is in the same boat as NYC for this, except even more unlikely to experience the "perfect track". Isabel was a big scare, but it didn't quite happen. The outer banks of NC "protect" that area from hurricanes in addition to the far west longitude. But Isabel almost circumnavigated those obstacles....but Isabel proved in the end how hard it is to get a big landfall near there. Virginia has so many vulnerable inlets that could be disastrous for a landfalling hurricane but they are just too far west and facing at the wrong angle to be threatened by hurricanes. At some point, one will hit, but the chances are ridiculously low that its hardly worth mentioning. New Orleans might get a direct hit 3-5 times before that type of crushing track happens for VA/DC.

Agree. I was tracking Isabel and it was a bit of a scare watching it as a Cat 5 annular cane... we got lucky it weakened so much. I don't think the DC area is capable of being able to withstand sustained winds of 60+ mph winds and gusts to 100mph for hours if a hurricane took the perfect track and impacted the region.... but as you say, its a super rare chance something like that will happen.

[ORH_wxman]

Agree. I was tracking Isabel and it was a bit of a scare watching it as a Cat 5 annular cane... we got lucky it weakened so much. I don't think the DC area is capable of being able to withstand sustained winds of 60+ mph winds and gusts to 100mph for hours if a hurricane took the perfect track and impacted the region.... but as you say, its a super rare chance something like that will happen.

If Isabel had taken the "perfect" track, there is no doubt it would have been an absolute catastrophe for the DC area...but the chances are so low that its not really a worry. But Isabel stopped a few hearts for a time when it looked like might thread the needle up the Chesapeake Bay on the west side. They dodged a bullet there, but the next bullet to be dodged might not even come in our lifetimes.

[A-L-E-X]

If Isabel had taken the "perfect" track, there is no doubt it would have been an absolute catastrophe for the DC area...but the chances are so low that its not really a worry. But Isabel stopped a few hearts for a time when it looked like might thread the needle up the Chesapeake Bay on the west side. They dodged a bullet there, but the next bullet to be dodged might not even come in our lifetimes.

The funny thing is (and something previously mentioned) a couple of days before Isabel hit almost all of the models had her making landfall around Belmar, NJ-- which would have been a disaster unparalleled. SG posted the map of model tracks, and they all had her between Nassau County and Central NJ!

[ORH_wxman]

The funny thing is (and something previously mentioned) a couple of days before Isabel hit almost all of the models had her making landfall around Belmar, NJ-- which would have been a disaster unparalleled. SG posted the map of model tracks, and they all had her between Nassau County and Central NJ!

I recall most of the model runs being up the Chesapeake about 36 hours out...but perhaps more like 60 hours out they were further north. But I do not recall a huge NYC scare in that storm...I remember thinking how bad it could be for DC though. In the end it ended up slamming into NC like most hurricanes do that are that far south in latitude before they recurve.

[A-L-E-X]

I recall most of the model runs being up the Chesapeake about 36 hours out...but perhaps more like 60 hours out they were further north. But I do not recall a huge NYC scare in that storm...I remember thinking how bad it could be for DC though. In the end it ended up slamming into NC like most hurricanes do that are that far south in latitude before they recurve.

Yep, I believe it was at least 2 days out, SG posted the info on page 2 of the Hurricane Belle thread in our subforum. (another noteworthy storm!) There's also an interesting thread on Donna, which had winds gusting to 93 mph as far west as LGA with tides about as high as Dec 92-- I wonder how much of this was due to Donna's 100 mile wide eye that covered long island from corner to corner?

[free_man]

NYC geography makes them very vulnerable but its simply so tough to get a hurricane to take that track that its probably not worth talking about them being "due". They'll get the bad track eventually though.

The places that are the most vulnerable to a realistic hit now are Buzzards Bay and Narragansett Bay in MA and RI...they were hit extremely hard in 1938 and 1954 (more Narragansett) and haven't been hit since. So those are the spots that need to be watched very closely because the typical NE hurricane track has a much higher likelihood of hitting them.

You forgot about Bob. (Yes I read above) Even with a lower tide, which landfall timing was very lucky , it was still nearly a major surge and was actually higher than '38 within Buzzards Bay. Correct me if I'm wrong.

"Hurricane Bob caused a storm surge of 5 to 8 feet along the Rhode Island shore, but drove a surge of 10 to 15 feet into Buzzards Bay. The Buzzards Bay shore east to Cape Cod was hardest hit. The highest surges, of 12 to 15 feet, were observed in Onset, Bourne, Mashpee and Wareham, at the head of Buzzard's Bay. Cove Road, in Mattapoisett, Massachusetts had 29 of 37 homes destroyed, while Angelica Point, Massachusetts lost 32 of 35 homes along the shore. Boat damage was significant, as many boats were torn from their moorings. Extensive beach erosion occurred along the shore from Westerly, Rhode Island eastward. Some south facing beach locations on Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket islands lost up to 50 feet of beach to erosion. "

[ORH_wxman]

You forgot about Bob. (Yes I read above) Even with a lower tide, which landfall timing was very lucky , it was still nearly a major surge and was actually higher than '38 within Buzzards Bay. Correct me if I'm wrong.

"Hurricane Bob caused a storm surge of 5 to 8 feet along the Rhode Island shore, but drove a surge of 10 to 15 feet into Buzzards Bay. The Buzzards Bay shore east to Cape Cod was hardest hit. The highest surges, of 12 to 15 feet, were observed in Onset, Bourne, Mashpee and Wareham, at the head of Buzzard's Bay. Cove Road, in Mattapoisett, Massachusetts had 29 of 37 homes destroyed, while Angelica Point, Massachusetts lost 32 of 35 homes along the shore. Boat damage was significant, as many boats were torn from their moorings. Extensive beach erosion occurred along the shore from Westerly, Rhode Island eastward. Some south facing beach locations on Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket islands lost up to 50 feet of beach to erosion. "

[free_man]

Bob was too far east to hit them extremely hard. There was a pretty big storm surge in Buzzards Bay but Bob was weakening enough that it still wasn't catastrophic...a stronger system could have been a lot lot worse. Narragansett Bay was west of the track so they never saw a big impact.

My point was that '38 wasn't catastrophic or much moreso than Bob, for Buzzards Bay, either. Or was it? I read your posts. I would say the surge with Bob, locally, was easily up there with Carol too.

As for anywhere else, like you said, Bob wasn't much of a problem.

[ORH_wxman]

My point was that '38 wasn't catastrophic or much moreso than Bob, for Buzzards Bay, either. Or was it? I read your posts. I would say the surge with Bob, locally, was easily up there with Carol too.

As for anywhere else, like you said, Bob wasn't much of a problem.

New Bedford got put under 8 feet of water in 1938...we don't have very accurate measurements of surge in Buzzards Bay like we do with Narragansett back then, but the damage and water levels in towns along Buzzards Bay suggest 1938 was definitely worse than Bob....though Bob was pretty nasty there as was already noted. Carol was actually worse than 1938 in a few towns in RI. However, Carol was more compact than 1938.

[free_man]

New Bedford got put under 8 feet of water in 1938...we don't have very accurate measurements of surge in Buzzards Bay like we do with Narragansett back then, but the damage and water levels in towns along Buzzards Bay suggest 1938 was definitely worse than Bob....though Bob was pretty nasty there as was already noted. Carol was actually worse than 1938 in a few towns in RI. However, Carol was more compact than 1938.

Ah okay. That makes sense given it wasn't until the 50s boom that the coastline was developed too much, so '38 surge in Buzzards Bay wouldn't have been as notable as today.

[free_man]

I believe in 1997, the SSTs just off SD briefly reached near 80 F... so it isn't impossible.

Was there any depth to those warmer SSTs, or just sfc /shallow? I'd imagine that a little turning over and those 80F SSTs would not last too long.

[CT Rain]

New Bedford got put under 8 feet of water in 1938...we don't have very accurate measurements of surge in Buzzards Bay like we do with Narragansett back then, but the damage and water levels in towns along Buzzards Bay suggest 1938 was definitely worse than Bob....though Bob was pretty nasty there as was already noted. Carol was actually worse than 1938 in a few towns in RI. However, Carol was more compact than 1938.

But 1938 was not anywhere near a worst case scenario for Buzzard's Bay and was probably pretty close to 1938 and Carol. Remember that 1938 made landfall in HVN as a cat 3... and Bob just west of Buzzards Bay as a cat 2. From what I understand the surges were relatively close.

[Ed Lizard]

The Cat 3 just West of the Hudson would be so special because it would be so rare. Underdog stories are what people remember, like the Giants beating the undefeated Pats in the Super Bowl, or Texas being semi-pro USC for the National Championship.

[free_man]

The Cat 3 just West of the Hudson would be so special because it would be so rare. Underdog stories are what people remember, like the Giants beating the undefeated Pats in the Super Bowl, or Texas being semi-pro USC for the National Championship.

Most people remember the classic champions, not the one-hit wonders. Sorry.

[JamieOber]

I recall most of the model runs being up the Chesapeake about 36 hours out...but perhaps more like 60 hours out they were further north. But I do not recall a huge NYC scare in that storm...I remember thinking how bad it could be for DC though. In the end it ended up slamming into NC like most hurricanes do that are that far south in latitude before they recurve.

I can't remember the exact point, but the NHC had a track over Gettysburg as a cat 1. That floored me.

[A-L-E-X]

I can't remember the exact point, but the NHC had a track over Gettysburg as a cat 1. That floored me.

Heh, you should read some of the accounts of Hazel. Even with an inland track, I believe it maintained close to hurricane intensity all the way to Toronto. The Battery in NYC recorded wind gusts up to 113 mph.

[A-L-E-X]

New Bedford got put under 8 feet of water in 1938...we don't have very accurate measurements of surge in Buzzards Bay like we do with Narragansett back then, but the damage and water levels in towns along Buzzards Bay suggest 1938 was definitely worse than Bob....though Bob was pretty nasty there as was already noted. Carol was actually worse than 1938 in a few towns in RI. However, Carol was more compact than 1938.

Carol was probably the only "pure" hurricane in recent memory that made it this far north.

[Ed Lizard]

Heh, you should read some of the accounts of Hazel. Even with an inland track, I believe it maintained close to hurricane intensity all the way to Toronto. The Battery in NYC recorded wind gusts up to 113 mph.

The hardcore tropical purists don't count it, it became ET somewhere in North Carolina. But I think the Canadian Hurricane Centre still has a page devoted to Hazel because of the flood damage.

Yup.

L'ouragan Hazel

L'ouragan Hazel a frappé Toronto le 15 octobre 1954, faisant 81 morts et laissant 1 896 familles sans foyer. Les chutes de pluie records qui se sont abattues sur Toronto – jusqu'à 225 millimètres – n'ont pas pu pénétrer dans le sol en raison des précipitations du mois précédent, supérieures à la moyenne, qui avaient déjà saturé la nappe phréatique. La majeure partie des eaux de pluie s'est tout simplement écoulée à la surface du sol pour aller gonfler les rivières et les ruisseaux qui ont atteint, voire dépassé leur niveau maximum. On a estimé à 90% la proportion des eaux de pluie qui se sont déversées directement dans les rivières, élevant leur niveau de 6 à 8 mètres. L'eau a creusé des ruisseaux là où il n'y en avait jamais eu auparavant, fait dérailler des trains et emporté des routes. Des rivières en furie ont délogé des maisons de leurs fondations, soulevé des voitures et des maisons mobiles et fait couler des bateaux.

[andyhb]

Certainly agree with the Tampa hypothesis. That area and St. Pete/Clearwater are just a disaster waiting to happen.

Also, when was the last time a hurricane of substantial strength hit the Jacksonville area? Savannah would also probably have problems in that case.

[HurricaneJosh]

Certainly agree with the Tampa hypothesis. That area and St. Pete/Clearwater are just a disaster waiting to happen.

Also, when was the last time a hurricane of substantial strength hit the Jacksonville area? Savannah would also probably have problems in that case.

JAX was hit by a large, weakening hurricane-- Dora-- in 1964. It's officially considered a Cat 2, but I have my doubts. Based on the size and some other factors, I think it might have been a Cat 1.

Savannah hasn't gotten nailed by a major since 1893.

[MJW155]

Most people remember the classic champions, not the one-hit wonders. Sorry.

So how come everyone remembers the Giants beating the Patriots?

[Amped]

1821 is the last hurricane to hit NYC. It was a CAT1 and it caused a lot of damage. It would have been a lot worse if it didn't hit at low tide. It doesn't take a major hurricane to cause major problems for NYC

1821 is also the largest area of coastline effected by Hurricane force winds in a single storm. If it hit today, I think it would top Katrina in damage.

[HurricaneJosh]

1821 is the last hurricane to hit NYC. It was a CAT1 and it caused a lot of damage. It would have been a lot worse if it didn't hit at low tide. It doesn't take a major hurricane to cause major problems for NYC

1821 is also the largest area of coastline effected by Hurricane force winds in a single storm. If it hit today, I think it would top Katrina in damage.

Did you read the article or the thread?

[ORH_wxman]

Carol was probably the only "pure" hurricane in recent memory that made it this far north.

Its too bad we don't have satellite images of that storm. By most accounts it had a tight core of very strong winds which is more akin to a southern hurricane...so it probably had a decent looking eye and eye wall still.

[Amped]

Did you read the article or the thread?

I skimmed over both. Did I miss something? I might have repeated the article a bit.

[A-L-E-X]

Its too bad we don't have satellite images of that storm. By most accounts it had a tight core of very strong winds which is more akin to a southern hurricane...so it probably had a decent looking eye and eye wall still.

Will, do you have any ideas as to why this may have been the case? Were SST particularly warm back then, or did it track right along the Gulf Stream for a longer period of time than most canes do? I would love to know what helped it maintain its inner structure.

[HurricaneJosh]

I skimmed over both. Did I miss something? I might have repeated the article a bit.

The 1821 hurricane and its intensity was discussed quite a bit. No biggie.

[A-L-E-X]

Did you read the article or the thread?

If August 1893 (Cat 2) happened again, you KNOW you would be on the first flight to JFK Seriously, that made landfall near the present day site of the airport, so that has to be considered within city limits I believe that cane traveled due north from just off the NC coast, actually take the 1938 track and translate it about 60 miles west and that is a very similar track. Maybe NYC needs a NNW track to get a direct hit, but the outer boroughs and western Nassau certainly dont!

BTW I didn't find that as startling as a NY Times article I was reading, which basically indicated that not only had people forgotten about the hurricane, people had even forgotten about the existence of Hogs Island, until artifacts started washing ashore during the 1990s! It was basically our version of Atlantis!