gkrangers Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Monster for the interior on the 6z GFS. Step in the right direction from 0z for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 6z GFS puts the Delaware River as the breaking point between blizzard/heavy rain with the center of low pressure near NYC as a deepening 976 mb low strengthening to 970mb and moving inland to CT. Actually has my house on the dividing line with about half snow and half rain, but it is within a couple of miles of Blairstown, NJ. Monster for the interior on the 6z GFS. Step in the right direction from 0z for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Looks like the 0z GGEM and 0z Euro Ensemble Mean. These solutions look most reasonable to me now with the flat West Coast ridge along with east based -NAO and 50/50 low.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Verbatim we'd have a chaotic finals week here at PSU Hazleton. 12" of snow to start us off followed by major cold New solution to follow in 2.5 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 6, 2010 Author Share Posted December 6, 2010 I predict the 12z comes in a hundred miles further east and gets us all a little more hot and bothered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opengeo Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I predict the 12z comes in a hundred miles further east and gets us all a little more hot and bothered. Hope you're right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I predict the 12z comes in a hundred miles further east and gets us all a little more hot and bothered. 06z was definitely a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Hope you're right! Me too. Now let's hope the next few days of runs keeps this this one on the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 6, 2010 Author Share Posted December 6, 2010 I was not right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opengeo Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I was not right. Nope. There are A LOT of upper air features working against us right now, that's the problem. And, by now, we all know how many things have to go right for big snows to effect all of us on the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Nope. There are A LOT of upper air features working against us right now, that's the problem. And, by now, we all know how many things have to go right for big snows to effect all of us on the coastal plain. If we were in an el nino, it would be different. Looks like ENSO is starting to take its toll on the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 If we were in an el nino, it would be different. Looks like ENSO is starting to take its toll on the pattern. Does La Nina typically generate strong -NAOs? no Does La Nina typically generate -AOs reaching -6? no Does La Nina typically give record-breaking snow and cold to western europe? no Does La Nina typically result in an eastern trough for the majority of December? not usually So, what is ENSO doing that it's taking its toll? The only real signs of La Nina are shown by a transient Pacific ridge and that's about it. Latest data suggests that La Nina peaked earlier than expected and surface temperatures in the Nino regions are rapidly warming. I don't believe this is the best argument to use except if you're talking about the warm/wet and cold/dry scenario the east is going through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Does La Nina typically generate strong -NAOs? no Does La Nina typically generate -AOs reaching -6? no Does La Nina typically give record-breaking snow and cold to western europe? no Does La Nina typically result in an eastern trough for the majority of December? not usually So, what is ENSO doing that it's taking its toll? The only real signs of La Nina are shown by a transient Pacific ridge and that's about it. Latest data suggests that La Nina peaked earlier than expected and surface temperatures in the Nino regions are rapidly warming. I don't believe this is the best argument to use except if you're talking about the warm/wet and cold/dry scenario the east is going through. That's not the point. This has nothing to do with where the NAO is right now, but a characteristic of strong la ninas to turn on the flip of a dime. Basically, we go from dry / cold to storms cutting up to our west and back to dry / cold. This has historically happened quite often in moderate to strong la ninas. And this is due to the neg NAO becoming east-based with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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