06z Model Discussion

[Ellinwood]

06Z GFS... still hanging out right along the coast, but the cold air is able to work further east behind it this time around. It was much better at keeping the SW ridge in place compared to the 00Z, which makes this run look more realistic.

The upper-levels don't dig down into the Southeast as much this time around, either, which I like. However, the trough does go negative tilt at 156h (midday Sunday) and actually cuts-off soon after, which is a bit different from previous runs.

[WinterWxLuvr]

06Z GFS... still hanging out right along the coast, but the cold air is able to work further east behind it this time around. It was much better at keeping the SW ridge in place compared to the 00Z, which makes this run look more realistic.

The upper-levels don't dig down into the Southeast as much this time around, either, which I like. However, the trough does go negative tilt at 156h (midday Sunday) and actually cuts-off soon after, which is a bit different from previous runs.

This solution, at least in the one week time period, seems to match up well with the 0z Euro ensembles. With so many solutions on the table, it's all up in the air it would seem. Problem for me, and maybe others as well, is that we don't know how to recognize the bogus ones. It's good to have mets come in and give us their take on things.

[Wonderdog]

Clipper moves along northern border on 0z and 6z GFS runs but the next storm works itself to a position just south of Del on the 6z run bringing cold air closer to the coast. 12z run should be interesting if the trend continues to push the low eastward thru the MA.

[CoastalWx]

06z gfs is major snow about 50 miles nw of DC.

[Ellinwood]

06z gfs is major snow about 50 miles nw of DC.

I should be a dick and post the snowfall map... it's hilarious.

[TowsonWeather]

I should be a dick and post the snowfall map... it's hilarious.

I'd love to see it, actually - just for fun :-)

[Analog96]

I should be a dick and post the snowfall map... it's hilarious.

I say post the clown map!

[showmethesnow]

Got me curious as well. Couldn't find the link I used to have, so was wondering if you could supply that. Thanks.

[Ellinwood]

Coastal screw zone... for teh lulz.

5 day totals from 12/11 18z to 12/15 18z:

Image courtesy of MDA/EarthSat

[ThePhotoGuy]

Coastal screw zone... for teh lulz.

5 day totals from 12/11 18z to 12/15 18z:

Image courtesy of MDA/EarthSat

I wish you didn't post that!

[stormtracker]

06z gfs is major snow about 50 miles nw of DC.

Now that I moved from hgr to dc, this will happen

[Dr No]

06z gfs is major snow about 50 miles nw of DC.

Yup, and likely a major sleet storm the areas just outside the heavy snow.

[clskinsfan]

Would be a nice hit for the Shanendoah Valley. Bring it on!

[wxmeddler]

CAD

[catoctin wx]

CAD

I can picture Eric pacing across the WIC already

[wxmeddler]

I can picture Eric pacing across the WIC already

:lmao: :lmao:

Yeah, I was in for the disco this morning, and he was going back and forth between the euro and gfs and finally just said, "Well, we'll see. Put in a 2 for the confidence"

[stormtracker]

Meh, you account for the GFS' S and E bias and its still a bad run for most of us

[TowsonWeather]

Meh, you account for the GFS' S and E bias and its still a bad run for most of us

Yeah, not optimistic, but a move in the right direction is better than a kick in the teeth. Gives us a reason to be interested in the 12Z stuff anyway.

[Paweatherguy1]

Meh, you account for the GFS' S and E bias and its still a bad run for most of us

Yeah, even up here at kpit, where this run looks great, the more realistic situation at this point looks like snow to mix to rain... A fairly typical scenario in thisset up.

[CarolineWx]

The 06 Ensembles is all over the place, anywhere from a way west Low to out to sea

[Analog96]

Meh, you account for the GFS' S and E bias and its still a bad run for most of us

We'll see. Allegedly, the bias is gone if you listen to the people from NCEP. But I don't believe anything until I see it. One thing to note, however, is that last year, the model did have the S & E bias, but not EVERY time, if you know what I mean.

[OSUmetstud]

We'll see. Allegedly, the bias is gone if you listen to the people from NCEP. But I don't believe anything until I see it. One thing to note, however, is that last year, the model did have the S & E bias, but not EVERY time, if you know what I mean.

The GFS no longer has a significant cold bias...the EMC model verification numbers are pretty conclusive. I'm not sure, however, if that was the true reason for the SE bias for nor'easter development.

[OSUmetstud]

[Analog96]

The GFS no longer has a significant cold bias...the EMC model verification numbers are pretty conclusive. I'm not sure, however, if that was the true reason for the SE bias for nor'easter development.

I know that, but I care more about its bias with storm location. Temperature forecasting is a lot easier IMO.

[OSUmetstud]

I know that, but I care more about its bias with storm location. Temperature forecasting is a lot easier IMO.

Well if you listened to DT on the radio show, the SE bias was supposedly because of the low-level cold bias in the medium range. If that was really the case, the SE bias would be gone because the new advancement basically removed the low-level cold bias. Also, the new GFS has no bias at 500mb for Day 5, 6, 8, and 10 while the ECMWF develops a slightly higher height bias in that range.

EMC Model verification

[stormtracker]

We'll see. Allegedly, the bias is gone if you listen to the people from NCEP. But I don't believe anything until I see it. One thing to note, however, is that last year, the model did have the S & E bias, but not EVERY time, if you know what I mean.

I think the cold bias was removed. Like Nick said, not sure if that and the S and E bias are one in the same.

[OSUmetstud]

I think the cold bias was removed. Like Nick said, not sure if that and the S and E bias are one in the same.

Scott, Coastalwx said he thought it might have been due to a GFS progressive bias...which isn't going to be seen in those stats I posted...so there still remains some question about whether a S and E bias remains.