NaoPos Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Just to clarify the strength of the block, 588DM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Haha, just came over from posting about this European run in another thread. Safe to say that i'm personally going to throw this one out as it does some fairly outlandish things. Nothing out of the realm of possibility of course.. but I just don't see a low going from the upper midwest into the central lakes, followed by a secondary low forming over VA that moves east, explodes and retrogrades back to Long Island taking from hour 144 to 240 to do all the above mentioned things. Plenty of time for this to shake out, one thing I have noticed in the major models is the westward shift with the low the last few runs...something to keep an eye on. Hopefully for the sake of all the snow lovers this goes back to being a coastal low, as the solutions that were offered up by the 12z Euro and 0z GFS would bring precip type issues to many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I believe this is it? 240 NHEM Looking at this map, I would be tempted to issue a heat advisory for Iceland and Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Haha, just came over from posting about this European run in another thread. Safe to say that i'm personally going to throw this one out as it does some fairly outlandish things. Nothing out of the realm of possibility of course.. but I just don't see a low going from the upper midwest into the central lakes, followed by a secondary low forming over VA that moves east, explodes and retrogrades back to Long Island taking from hour 144 to 240 to do all the above mentioned things. Plenty of time for this to shake out, one thing I have noticed in the major models is the westward shift with the low the last few runs...something to keep an eye on. Hopefully for the sake of all the snow lovers this goes back to being a coastal low, as the solutions that were offered up by the 12z Euro and 0z GFS would bring precip type issues to many. I am so glad that I am not the only one that is shaking my head in wonder at the ECM tonight.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Big time differences on the means from the operational run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 lol what a freakin' trainwreck run after hour 168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 lol what a freakin' trainwreck run after hour 168. Hell its a trainwreck throughout the run and has 0 consensus with its ensembles or other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Hell its a trainwreck throughout the run and has 0 consensus with its ensembles or other models. true...0z GFS with the first storm is a lot more reasonable in terms of a solution (not as much phasing, etc.) the euro, fwiw, is a few notches weaker with the 500 low in eastern canada out of the gate and that probably is the cause of the trainwreck as the run progresses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I'm done with this idiotic model...it offers such trainwreck ideas that I'm going to end up with an anurism. I can imagine that being a meteorologist is a lot like sitting in NYC traffic. If the ensembles different this much from the op, safe to go with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 safe to go with the GFS. I'd still use some kind of protection. You never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I'm done with this idiotic model...it offers such trainwreck ideas that I'm going to end up with an anurism. I can imagine that being a meteorologist is a lot like sitting in NYC traffic. If the ensembles different this much from the op, safe to go with the GFS. Outside of the 08-09 winter when it was perhaps running as hot for a 3-4 month stretch as I have ever seen any forecast model be the Euro has not been nearly as good since it had the upgrade done to it several years back, there was a second upgrade a year or two which improved it a bit but it still is not at the level it was 8 or 10 years ago if you ask me...it seems to have gotten the idea of the storm at 168 hours correct though before the GFS did...but its having serious issues the past 2 winter seasons beyond day 6 or 7 as far as inconsistency....at least the GFS is usually consistently showing the same stupid thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I heard that the HPC threw out the 0z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 I heard that the HPC threw out the 0z Euro. Wouldn't you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Wouldn't you? Yes I would. It's way too warm and wrapped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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