tombo82685 Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 this is joe bastardi companies idea for winter temp wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 this is joe bastardi companies idea for winter temp wise Says this is his idea from June. 'Official' forecast coming out the 28th and if he has to revise he would make it colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
torch1982 Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Wow I think that's it! Oh yeah, I forgot about this site! There is some great stuff here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 My personal snow thought, I'll take 25" if it will give my NE PA friends 75-100" 3 winters in a row of above normal snow in SE PA......I'll bet against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 fwiw, this is from dt NEW ECMWF MODEL ENSO "plumes" have come out ( as of 9/22) ... andn the show WEAK to Moderate La Nina develoing in the ENSO regions 3.4 DJF... of -0.8 to -1.2 Wxrisk.com WHY is this significant? weak / Mod La Nina STRONGLY correlate to COLDER & SNOWIER than Normal winters over the Midwest and Northeast and eastern half of the conus in general. That ebign said it mean that YOUR area will see that but as general rule... this is a positive sign for those who like colder and snowy winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 fwiw, this is from dt NEW ECMWF MODEL ENSO "plumes" have come out ( as of 9/22) ... andn the show WEAK to Moderate La Nina develoing in the ENSO regions 3.4 DJF... of -0.8 to -1.2 Wxrisk.com WHY is this significant? weak / Mod La Nina STRONGLY correlate to COLDER & SNOWIER than Normal winters over the Midwest and Northeast and eastern half of the conus in general. That ebign said it mean that YOUR area will see that but as general rule... this is a positive sign for those who like colder and snowy winters You heard the man. "That ebign said it mean that YOUR area will see [COLDER & SNOWIER than Normal]" Seriously, is the man hung over all the time or is he really just that stupid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 For craps and giggles -- years where Philadelphia has had a high temperature of 56 or below in the first five days of October: 2011 2010 1999 1998 1996 1974 1965 1948 1945 1944 1940 1939 1899 1892 1888 1876 Since 1950, there have been four Nina years in the dataset that featured a sub 56 degree high: '74, '98, '99, and '10 ('96 was nada, '65 was a Nino) '74-'75 was a warmer winter, 13.6" of snow @ PHL: '98-'99 was a warm winter, 12.5" of snow @ PHL (Improving on the 0.8" in the super Nino) '99-'00 was the 2nd year of Nina winters -- 21" of snow, warm but not as warm as 98-99 We all know about '10-'11. Of the four years, two were wet ('99 and '10), two were dry...'74 was the only October of the set to feature below average temperatures...the rest ended above current norms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 Foot's update: http://www.footsforecast.org/ HellooOctober! 8:55 AM EDT 10/1/11 THE WEEKEND POWDERHOUND REPORT: As Phillip Seymour Hoffman says in the movie Twister..."THIS is the fun part baby." We love October because it reveals the essence of the winter pattern, provides supporting data from other regions and usually puts out an early season storm or two that gets everybody talking. Last week's snow in Siberia was accompanied by a sprinkling across Alaska and northern Canada. While you might expect that to be normal this time of year, it's important to note ANY snow cover building up on land above the Arctic circle helps counteract the near-record meltoff of Arctic Sea Ice this year. Graphic 1- National Snow & Ice Data Center: http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/20110915_Figure2.png SNOWCOVER NOWThe September 30 graphic from the National Ice Center shows this buildup of snow in the Northwest Territories, and down the Coast Range of British Columbia. Even Whistler-Blackcomb is reporting early snow: (http://www.whistlerblackcomb.com/photos/index.htm). The resulting increase in sunflight reflectivity cools the atmosphere further, allowing southward moving high pressure systems to develop strong surface pressures to the colder ground surface. http://www.natice.no...snow_alaska.gif WHEN'S THE FIRST SNOW? We will map out other regions later today, but for the Mid-Atlantic, given the current 45- to 60-day pattern starting with the Sep 26 Midwestern storm, we see this sequence: Late October: Major cold snap, hard frost after a Midwest to Northeast storm; Mid-November: "Indian summer" false warmup for a few days; Around Dec 1: Sharp reversal to significant cold, ending with a brief snow event...yep, you guessed it, in the neighborhood of Dec 5-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 DT issued prelim forecast http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/seasonalforcst/WINTER1112/1STGUESS%20WINTER.ppt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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