Time to talk winter 2011-2012

[Feb]

The last few days of beautiful weather, nice days and cool nights, got me thinking ahead to fall and what follows. All the other regional forums are talking about the upcoming winter, so maybe it's time we do.

Chances of a third straight awesome winter? Right now i would go with 60%. The NAO certainly wants to be negative for like forever. A lot of people seem to be calling for a weak La Nina. Probably a decent combo but are we pushing our luck for the great winters in a row?

[Yes_Probably_Maybe_No]

The last few days of beautiful weather, nice days and cool nights, got me thinking ahead to fall and what follows. All the other regional forums are talking about the upcoming winter, so maybe it's time we do.

Chances of a third straight awesome winter? Right now i would go with 60%. The NAO certainly wants to be negative for like forever. A lot of people seem to be calling for a weak La Nina. Probably a decent combo but are we pushing our luck for the great winters in a row?

So....100 inches or bust?

[Thunder Road]

Honestly it seems like ENSO state has little bearing on how our winter ends up as long as we're stuck in this decade NAO/AO minimum. I mean we got 40" on a strong Nina last year for crying out loud. So my guess would be another winter of redevelopers and prolonged cold/storminess with good blocking. Not that I care, since I'll be paying attention to Indiana's weather.

[Feb]

So....100 inches or bust?

Na, more like 36" or bust. Let's be realistic!

[RobbTC]

2012 Old Farmer's Almanac has this (never paid attention to how accurate these things are but I think they claim 80% accuracy overall):

They claim 90% accuracy for last winter.

NOV. 2011: Temp. 46.5° (0.5° below avg.);

precip. 1.5" (2" below avg.). 1–5 Rainy periods,

warm. 6–9 Sunny, cool. 10–16 Showers, cool.

17–22 Rainy periods, mild. 23–27 Showers,

then sunny, cold. 28–30 Sprinkles.

DEC. 2011: Temp. 38° (1° above

avg. northeast, 1° below southeast);

precip. 3" (avg.). 1–4 Showers,

warm. 5–9 Rain and snow,

then sunny, cool. 10–12 Sunny,

warm. 13–16 Rain and snow,

then sunny, cold. 17–20 Snowstorm,

then sunny, cold. 21–27

Rain, then sunny, seasonable.

28–31 Rain and snow showers.

JAN. 2012: Temp. 38° (5°

above avg.); precip. 2.5" (1" below

avg.). 1–6 Rain, then sunny, mild.

7–11 Showers, then sunny, seasonable. 12–19

Snow, then sunny, warm. 20–24 Rain to snow,

then sunny, cold. 25–29 Rain and snow north;

sunny, mild south. 30–31 Blizzard.

FEB. 2012: Temp. 28° (5° below avg.); precip.

4" (1" above avg.). 1–2 Sunny, very cold. 3–4

Snow to rain. 5–9 Sunny; cold, then warm. 10–16

Snowy periods, cold. 17–19 Sunny, very cold. 20–

23 Snow showers, cold. 24–26 Rain, mild. 27–29

Stormy; snow north, rain south.

MAR. 2012: Temp. 41.5° (4° below avg. north,

1° above south); precip. 2.5" (1.5" below avg.).

1–4 Sunny, warm. 5–12 Rain to snow, then sunny,

cold. 13–19 Rain and snow, then sunny, cool. 20–

26 Rain, then sunny, warm. 27–29 Showers, then

sunny, cool. 30–31 Rain and snow north; sunny,

warm south.

The continued low level of sunspot and space weather activity in Solar Cycle 24 reinforces

our belief that we are in the midst of a period of significant change. The relatively

long length of Solar Cycle 23 (which, at 12.6 years’ duration when it ended in

December 2008, was the longest cycle in more than 200 years), the change of the PDO (Pacific

Decadal Oscillation) to its cold phase in 2010, and the expected change of the AMO (Atlantic

Multidecadal Oscillation) to its cold phase in 2012 should combine to bring a gradual cooling

of the atmosphere over the coming decade, offset by any warming caused by increased

greenhouse gases.

We expect that the winter of 2011–12 will not have a strong El Niño or La Niña. Although

temperatures across most of the nation will be above normal, on average, over the November

to March winter season, there will be several very cold periods and much of the northern and

eastern part of the nation will have above-normal snowfall. While most of the area from Texas

and western Louisiana northward to Nebraska and Iowa will have relatively mild temperatures,

on average, below-normal precipitation will increase drought concerns.

Spring and summer will be cooler than normal in most of the country, with the chief exception

being the West Coast states, where summer will be hotter than normal. The greatest threats

in hurricane season will be to North Carolina, Virginia, South Florida, and South Texas.

November through March temperatures

will be below normal, on average, in most of

New England, the Mid-Atlantic, South Florida,

the Upper Midwest, the Desert Southwest,

and the Pacific Southwest and above normal

elsewhere. Precipitation will be above normal

in the eastern Ohio Valley and in northern

portions of the Upper Midwest, Pacific Northwest,

and Pacific Southwest and below normal

elsewhere. Snowfall will be above normal in

most locations from New England southward

to Georgia and westward across the northern

tier of states to the Cascades of Washington

and Oregon; it will be below normal in most

other areas that typically receive snow.

[mattinpa]

2012 Old Farmer's Almanac has this (never paid attention to how accurate these things are but I think they claim 80% accuracy overall):

They claim 90% accuracy for last winter.

NOV. 2011: Temp. 46.5° (0.5° below avg.);

precip. 1.5" (2" below avg.). 1–5 Rainy periods,

warm. 6–9 Sunny, cool. 10–16 Showers, cool.

17–22 Rainy periods, mild. 23–27 Showers,

then sunny, cold. 28–30 Sprinkles.

DEC. 2011: Temp. 38° (1° above

avg. northeast, 1° below southeast);

precip. 3" (avg.). 1–4 Showers,

warm. 5–9 Rain and snow,

then sunny, cool. 10–12 Sunny,

warm. 13–16 Rain and snow,

then sunny, cold. 17–20 Snowstorm,

then sunny, cold. 21–27

Rain, then sunny, seasonable.

28–31 Rain and snow showers.

JAN. 2012: Temp. 38° (5°

above avg.); precip. 2.5" (1" below

avg.). 1–6 Rain, then sunny, mild.

7–11 Showers, then sunny, seasonable. 12–19

Snow, then sunny, warm. 20–24 Rain to snow,

then sunny, cold. 25–29 Rain and snow north;

sunny, mild south. 30–31 Blizzard.

FEB. 2012: Temp. 28° (5° below avg.); precip.

4" (1" above avg.). 1–2 Sunny, very cold. 3–4

Snow to rain. 5–9 Sunny; cold, then warm. 10–16

Snowy periods, cold. 17–19 Sunny, very cold. 20–

23 Snow showers, cold. 24–26 Rain, mild. 27–29

Stormy; snow north, rain south.

MAR. 2012: Temp. 41.5° (4° below avg. north,

1° above south); precip. 2.5" (1.5" below avg.).

1–4 Sunny, warm. 5–12 Rain to snow, then sunny,

cold. 13–19 Rain and snow, then sunny, cool. 20–

26 Rain, then sunny, warm. 27–29 Showers, then

sunny, cool. 30–31 Rain and snow north; sunny,

warm south.

The continued low level of sunspot and space weather activity in Solar Cycle 24 reinforces

our belief that we are in the midst of a period of significant change. The relatively

long length of Solar Cycle 23 (which, at 12.6 years’ duration when it ended in

December 2008, was the longest cycle in more than 200 years), the change of the PDO (Pacific

Decadal Oscillation) to its cold phase in 2010, and the expected change of the AMO (Atlantic

Multidecadal Oscillation) to its cold phase in 2012 should combine to bring a gradual cooling

of the atmosphere over the coming decade, offset by any warming caused by increased

greenhouse gases.

We expect that the winter of 2011–12 will not have a strong El Niño or La Niña. Although

temperatures across most of the nation will be above normal, on average, over the November

to March winter season, there will be several very cold periods and much of the northern and

eastern part of the nation will have above-normal snowfall. While most of the area from Texas

and western Louisiana northward to Nebraska and Iowa will have relatively mild temperatures,

on average, below-normal precipitation will increase drought concerns.

Spring and summer will be cooler than normal in most of the country, with the chief exception

being the West Coast states, where summer will be hotter than normal. The greatest threats

in hurricane season will be to North Carolina, Virginia, South Florida, and South Texas.

November through March temperatures

will be below normal, on average, in most of

New England, the Mid-Atlantic, South Florida,

the Upper Midwest, the Desert Southwest,

and the Pacific Southwest and above normal

elsewhere. Precipitation will be above normal

in the eastern Ohio Valley and in northern

portions of the Upper Midwest, Pacific Northwest,

and Pacific Southwest and below normal

elsewhere. Snowfall will be above normal in

most locations from New England southward

to Georgia and westward across the northern

tier of states to the Cascades of Washington

and Oregon; it will be below normal in most

other areas that typically receive snow.

I thought that wasn't out for a while longer? Anyway, they have called for this summer and last being cool, and it didn't turn out that way. I think the Farmer's Almanac's winter predictions seem to be better. Interesting the swing it has from Jan-Feb.

[RobbTC]

I thought that wasn't out for a while longer? Anyway, they have called for this summer and last being cool, and it didn't turn out that way. I think the Farmer's Almanac's winter predictions seem to be better. Interesting the swing it has from Jan-Feb.

The published book isn't out yet but digital excerpts of it are.

[greg ralls]

Cool, I'm ready for the blizzard at the end of January. They will talk of "Terrible Tuesday" for many years to come.

[phlwx]

2012 Old Farmer's Almanac has this (never paid attention to how accurate these things are but I think they claim 80% accuracy overall):

They claim 90% accuracy for last winter.

If you forecast "cold and snow" enough eventually you get one or two right.

They whiffed on snow last year (calling for "average" snowfall) and they whiffed badly down south.

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:TcuSdAJxobwJ:www.farmersalmanac.com/weather/2010/08/29/2011-winter-outlook-the-wait-is-over/+Winter+2011+Old+Farmers+almanac&cd=6&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&source=www.google.com

[greg ralls]

While I enjoy reading the Old Farmer's Almanac for all of the interesting stories, eclipse data and such, I hope no one on here takes their weather forecasts seriously. I remember reading Hurricane Schwartz's The Philadelphia Area Weather Book (or maybe it was in his blog), and about how he once researched how poorly their forecasts verified. I think he said they actually did worse than if you flipped a coin.

[Thunder Road]

If I recall correctly, the Old Farmer's Almanac is not even the same product as the official Farmer's Almanac. It's like a store brand cola compared to Coke. We sell the Old Farmers Almanac at the grocery store where I work...or at least we did last fall.

[RobbTC]

If I recall correctly, the Old Farmer's Almanac is not even the same product as the official Farmer's Almanac. It's like a store brand cola compared to Coke. We sell the Old Farmers Almanac at the grocery store where I work...or at least we did last fall.

I'm not sure which is better, don't normally read them but out of curosity I ordered one of each of the almanacs for 2012.

Old Farmer's started publishing in 1792 and Farmer's started in 1818 so not sure which is preferred but Old Farmer's does seem like the original besides the BF Poor Richard one.

[chrisNJ]

It must not even be close to Winter yet because we have resorted to discuss the Farmer's Almanac!

[Thunder Road]

It must not even be close to Winter yet because we have resorted to discuss the Farmer's Almanac!

12z Farmers has a HECS 1/18

[tombo82685]

Dt posted this like a day or so ago... don;t look into to much but its an interesting fact

Lots of these Named TCs have been in western Atlantic curving out to sea... Like we saw in in 2010 and 2009 seasons... this means the Trough is over the East coast and these TC are being forced out to sea... In the WINTER of 2009-10 and 2010-11 that

trough never moved.... and well know what those winters were like

[Quakertown needs snow]

in case u missed this in the main forum, see link for who made the map

link

[Quakertown needs snow]

another

link

ExactaWeather.com sent us over their long range winter weather forecast for the 2011-2012 winter season but first here is a bit about Exacta Weather.

Exacta Weather is a non-profit weather organisation that comprises a team of meteorologists from around the world.

Our long range specialist forecaster James Madden states that there is “a potentially record breaking US winter for 2011-2012 with extremely cold temperatures and exceptional levels of snow”.

James Madden’s forecast is based on major natural factors, including solar activity, and how they impact the weather and climate on Earth. His forecasting techniques have attracted significant attention after correctly forecasting seasonal trends in the UK – and proving the Met Office wrong on three successive occasions, before they decided to scrap seasonal forecasts altogether.

Another extreme winter for many parts of the US

US Long Range Winter Weather Forecast 2011-2012

The coldest winter in 30 years was recorded across many parts of the US during the 2010-2011 winter. Eastern parts of the US plunged to a record -50F with the Northeast of the US also seeing records broken. Temperatures was also largely below normal averages for New York, Chicago, New Orleans, and Minneapolis. Snowstorms shattered New York City in December 2010 and January 2011 to become the snowiest January ever recorded.

So let’s turn to the US winter of 2011/2012.

La Niña cools the equatorial seas of the Pacific and was one of the strongest on record during 2010/2011. Less warm air rises during La Niña conditions with a cooling influence on the atmosphere that has big implications on global climate and global weather patterns. The changes in global weather patterns come from air pressure changes in atmospheric cycles called the North Atlantic Oscillation (NOA) and Arctic Oscillation (AO).

The latest National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) update suggests neutral conditions ahead, but a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) may yet suggest otherwise. The PDO is a pattern of Pacific climate variance that recently switched to negative (cold) and will remain that way for the next two to three decades. It is likely that La Niña will return more frequently during this time period as a negative PDO results in stronger La Niña (cooling) and weaker El Niño (warming) episodes.

Low solar activity is also a primary driver of atmospheric cycles that influence blocking activity patterns/ridges.

Our weather models consider all of these factors and are currently showing a particularly harsh winter for many parts of the US during 2011-2012. Large parts of Central and North America will face below average temperatures with above average snowfall throughout this winter, with temperatures in many Eastern and Western parts also showing as below average with above average snowfall amounts.

We expect the Pacific Northwest region to experience a very severe winter and the Cascades snowpack is likely to see increased levels due to the negative (cold) phase of PDO. Our weather models are also showing an increased likelihood for major snow events in Northeastern and Midwestern parts of the US throughout December 2011 and January 2012, that could see severe blizzard conditions hit New York City and Chicago.

With low solar activity levels, the negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the general trend for a much colder winter after the onset of last year’s La Niña, this winter could prove to be a record breaker with extremely cold temperatures and exceptional levels of snow for many parts of the US.

www.ExactaWeather.com

[torch1982]

Well, I'm looking forward to lots of snow. This was a brutal summer, and besides I photograph snow crystals under the microscope, so...

[tombo82685]

Well, I'm looking forward to lots of snow. This was a brutal summer, and besides I photograph snow crystals under the microscope, so...

wow, that sounds really cool, standard microscope?

[ptb127]

another

link

I don't know, that forecast lacks a certain "something".. not really believing it.

[dryslotted]

in case u missed this in the main forum, see link for who made the map

link

so it looks like a "battlezone" winter for i-95 and heavy, heavy snow for State College. Hmmm...Given how poorly his short term maps verify, I wouldn't give this much credence...

[torch1982]

wow, that sounds really cool, standard microscope?

Thanks! I use a standard light stereo-microscope for viewing the flakes. The old method I did was based on a an old National Geographic method with acrylic resin castings on slides. The crystal would melt and leave a mold that was permanent and visible. There are too many variables though, drying time, set time, temp of the glass slides, ect. So late this past season I started directly viewing them on black velvet and the results are amazing. I didn't get in a lot of time with this method though so this year is looking good! Some of my work is at this link. The top row and 1/2 of the second is the new non-resin method. They are much more detailed.

Mike McGuire, NJ

http://www.flickr.co...57623081804035/

[Parsley]

Thanks! I use a standard light stereo-microscope for viewing the flakes. The old method I did was based on a an old National Geographic method with acrylic resin castings on slides. The crystal would melt and leave a mold that was permanent and visible. There are too many variables though, drying time, set time, temp of the glass slides, ect. So late this past season I started directly viewing them on black velvet and the results are amazing. I didn't get in a lot of time with this method though so this year is looking good! Some of my work is at this link. The top row and 1/2 of the second is the new non-resin method. They are much more detailed.

Mike McGuire, NJ

http://www.flickr.co...57623081804035/

Wow. Awesome pictures.

[goombatommy]

@torch - those are some amazing pictures!

[JamieOber]

Thanks! I use a standard light stereo-microscope for viewing the flakes. The old method I did was based on a an old National Geographic method with acrylic resin castings on slides. The crystal would melt and leave a mold that was permanent and visible. There are too many variables though, drying time, set time, temp of the glass slides, ect. So late this past season I started directly viewing them on black velvet and the results are amazing. I didn't get in a lot of time with this method though so this year is looking good! Some of my work is at this link. The top row and 1/2 of the second is the new non-resin method. They are much more detailed.

Mike McGuire, NJ

http://www.flickr.co...57623081804035/

Wow. The felt makes for a dramatic background.

[Thunder Road]

Thanks! I use a standard light stereo-microscope for viewing the flakes. The old method I did was based on a an old National Geographic method with acrylic resin castings on slides. The crystal would melt and leave a mold that was permanent and visible. There are too many variables though, drying time, set time, temp of the glass slides, ect. So late this past season I started directly viewing them on black velvet and the results are amazing. I didn't get in a lot of time with this method though so this year is looking good! Some of my work is at this link. The top row and 1/2 of the second is the new non-resin method. They are much more detailed.

Mike McGuire, NJ

http://www.flickr.co...57623081804035/

These pics are almost thread-worthy.

I remember reading a book in like 2nd grade or thereabouts in which a man used an old timey (like 1920's) camera to photograph snowflakes. I'm pretty sure it was made up though, but that was the first thing I remembered. Wow those are awesome!

Only one question though: why none from 1/26/11? I loved that storm!

[torch1982]

Thanks! Yeah, the 1/26/11 storm. That one didn't go too well. I was able to get two slides that had limited crystal population but nothing great. That one was a strange storm as far as slides go. I had gotten a lot of excess moisture in the mix and that impeded drying of the acrylic so there weren't many good crystals preserved. I have to look at my records on that one. I keep records from weatherunderground for the hours when I collect from each storm. It makes it interesting since you begin to see patterns in what conditions create what types of crystals. Since crystals can be very different from location to location (micro-climates and different dust in the air for crystals to grow on) I can now actually move to different locations and sample in different places. So hopefully I will end up with very different crystals this year! In the past all materials would have to be set up days ahead of time to equilibrate temperature. Oddly enough though, the needle crystals, bullets, and columns tend to turn out better with the old (resin) method and not as great with the felt. The felt method yields better dendrites though!

[phlwx]

sweet pics torch

[iceman56]

I remember reading a book in like 2nd grade or thereabouts in which a man used an old timey (like 1920's) camera to photograph snowflakes. I'm pretty sure it was made up though, but that was the first thing I remembered. Wow those are awesome!

I think this is the fellow you are thinking of. He did some pretty remarkable stuff for era.

http://snowflakebentley.com/

[Thunder Road]

I think this is the fellow you are thinking of. He did some pretty remarkable stuff for era.

http://snowflakebentley.com/

Wow I think that's it!