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August 15-21 Severe Threats


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Another great storm here in southern Oakland county. really been the money spot the past couple of weeks. I didn't get to see this one too well because I was inside at a party...but we lost power and it seemed pretty wicked outside.

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I just got word from my grandparents who live a couple miles away that there are trees down around their house and that their neighbor's roof blew off.

I'll probably go check it out tomorrow...

Is there anywhere I can download radar data from today?

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I just got word from my grandparents who live a couple miles away that there are trees down around their house and that their neighbor's roof blew off.

I'll probably go check it out tomorrow...

Is there anywhere I can download radar data from today?

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/archive/

Click on Sat, then LOT, you should find it in there. I don't know if those files can be put into GR or not...

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http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/archive/

Click on Sat, then LOT, you should find it in there. I don't know if those files can be put into GR or not...

Thanks but yeah I was looking for something i could put into GR.

My dad just back from checking it out...he said there were multiple roofs torn off, and trees and limbs down everywhere...I'm thinking there might have been some sort of localized microburst or something. There was a truck from Channel 7 there, I'll be watching the news to see if they show any footage of the damage.

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There was an area of pretty respectable damage in Royal Oak. The worst of it seemed to be in a pretty localized area (roughly near 13 Mile Road and Woodward Avenue, and a bit east of there), but there were numerous large trees downed and branches everywhere. This caused a major disruption to the Woodward Dream Cruise, and some pandemonium when the storm hit! The significant gusts were behind the leading edge of the rain by a minute or two. Probably 60-65 MPH based on what I saw, both in the storm and in terms of the damage. Took a quick glance at radar this evening on the RAP archive; it look like a short-lived bowing segment that just happened to hit the so-called "epicenter" of the festivities. Should make for some entertaining videos being posted online in the coming days!

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Yeah my grandparents street was just on Channel 7 news...definitely looks like a good protion of the room came off. Lots of trees down. From what I saw it looked like straight line wind damage....but a couple of people they interviewed said that they saw a funnel, and I'm not gonna rule it out.

Crazyness.

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Having seen the entire event in person, I'm 99% certain it was a straight-line wind event. There wasn't even as much low-hanging scud visible as is usual, because the rain preceded the strongest part of the storm and drastically lowered the visibility.

Yeah I am reading that it was pretty nasty just north of 696 in Macomb County also, a couple 65 mph measured reports.

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Interesting-looking setup tomorrow across the Northeast...

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1257 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2011

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND

MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND...

...SYNOPSIS...

AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING SWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND

ANCHORED BY A VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY WILL UNDERGO FURTHER

AMPLIFICATION AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ESEWD FROM THE UPPER

GREAT LAKES TO NY/PA THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AT 12Z SUNDAY...A COLD

FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE PARENT LONGWAVE TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND SWWD

FROM SRN ONTARIO THROUGH THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO CENTRAL AR AND WWD

INTO OK. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROGRESS E/SEWD MOVING THROUGH MUCH OF

THE NERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND EXTEND WSWWD INTO THE CENTRAL

GULF COAST STATES BY 12Z MONDAY.

FARTHER W...AN IMPULSE EMANATING FROM AN UPPER LOW ALONG THE NRN CA

COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WRN/NRN MT THIS AFTERNOON AIDING IN

SOME TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...HEIGHT

RISES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...TENDING TO LIMIT

TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

...MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO NEW ENGLAND...

00Z NAM/GFS AND 12Z ECMWF AGREE WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT

TODAY...REACHING NRN NY TO WRN PA/UPPER OH VALLEY DURING THE

EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR

SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND THE ARRIVAL OF FORCING ALOFT

DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS GOOD

FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE

SLIGHT RISK AREA. SWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TO WRN

PA AND SSWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS IN LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO

THE HUDSON VALLEY/NEW ENGLAND WILL EACH SUPPORT MOISTURE ADVECTION

INTO THESE REGIONS. ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO

BE MODEST /AOB 6.5 C PER KM/ ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...SURFACE

HEATING COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL RESULT IN MODERATE

INSTABILITY FROM MD/D.C./DELMARVA TO SERN/ERN NY AND SWRN NEW

ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPE ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR WILL BE UP TO

1500-2000 J/KG WHILE FURTHER W OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY VALUES WILL

BE UP TO 1000 J/KG.

DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER

GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND CONVERGENCE/ASCENT ALONG THE COLD

FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL/LEE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM VA TO ERN NY WILL

SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON IN VICINITY AND

AHEAD OF THESE SURFACE BOUNDARIES. STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS AND

EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT COMBINED WITH THE AVAILABLE

INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS. SHEAR VECTORS MORE

NORMAL TO THE LEE TROUGH SUGGEST A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE

STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. VERTICALLY VEERING WINDS AND HIGHER

THETAE EXTENDING FROM MD/ERN PA TO SERN NY/SWRN NEW ENGLAND SUPPORT

AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

FARTHER W INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY...ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE

STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON WITH STRONG WIND

GUSTS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE WEAKENING THIS EVENING...A FURTHER

INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS INTO THE NERN STATES AND 60-90

METER HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD COMPENSATE THE WEAKER

THERMODYNAMICS FOR AT LEAST A CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS

INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A TORNADO

CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND AS STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ

SUPPORTS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE.

...WV/VA/CAROLINAS SWWD TO TN/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS IL/IND TO THE

MID SOUTH PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TODAY AND

MOVE TOWARD THE SRN HALF OF THE APPALACHIANS /WRN VA TO NRN GA/NERN

AL/. ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY

SHOULD SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE TN VALLEY/NRN EXTENT OF THE

CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS AND VA. THE FOCUS

FOR GREATER STORM COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME..AND THUS WILL

MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO SRN SD/NRN NEB...

A SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE SWD TODAY REACHING THE VICINITY OF THE

SD/NEB BORDER. SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS S OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL RETURN

MOISTURE NWD BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP LEVEL LAPSE RATES/EML

SPREADING EWD INTO SD/NEB. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE INDICATING MODERATE

INSTABILITY FROM NEB/WRN SD INTO PARTS OF THE ADJACENT NRN HIGH

PLAINS ALONG WITH STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...HEIGHT RISES ACROSS

THIS REGION AND LACK OF SUFFICIENT FORCING ALOFT SUGGEST TSTM

DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE MINIMAL. THIS OUTLOOK WILL MAINTAIN A LOW

PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS...GIVEN THE FAVORABLE

INSTABILITY/SHEAR...BUT CONFIDENCE IN GREATER STORM/SEVERE COVERAGE

REMAINS LOW.

..PETERS/SMITH.. 08/21/2011

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Here's some photos of the damage...

Trees blown down, winds from the south

imag0009q.jpg

imag0012we.jpg

imag0010js.jpg

Bench blown across yard, used to be on the far side of the patio at the top of the pic

imag0011re.jpg

Trees down across the street and roof damage

imag0014jpe.jpg

I'm no expert by any means, but a couple things lead me to believe that there may have been a tornado touchdown here

1. Most of the trees were blown down to the north. The squall line was coming from the west (maybe a little from the south)

2. The extremely localized damage. Really only 3 houses received bad damage like the pictures above, two on one side of the street and one on the other side. The street runs north-south. Everywhere else there is hardly any damage at all. If it was just straight line wind damage with winds from the south, why wouldn't more houses along the street see similar damage?

4. The damage wasn't purely in one direction. My grandparents had a west facing window that got blown in (might have been hit by debris).

5. When interviewed, A couple people in the area reported seeing a funnel.

What say you guys?

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I'm no expert by any means, but a couple things lead me to believe that there may have been a tornado touchdown here

1. Most of the trees were blown down to the north. The squall line was coming from the west (maybe a little from the south)

2. The extremely localized damage. Really only 3 houses received bad damage like the pictures above, two on one side of the street and one on the other side. The street runs north-south. Everywhere else there is hardly any damage at all. If it was just straight line wind damage with winds from the south, why wouldn't more houses along the street see similar damage?

4. The damage wasn't purely in one direction. My grandparents had a west facing window that got blown in (might have been hit by debris).

5. When interviewed, A couple people in the area reported seeing a funnel.

What say you guys?

Hard to say just looking at a few snapshots. You mentioned some interesting things but sometimes you can get some surprisingly localized straight line wind damage either due to poor construction or just a small pocket of stronger winds. The eyewitness reports of a funnel cloud are noteworthy. Was there any rotation on radar?

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Hard to say just looking at a few snapshots. You mentioned some interesting things but sometimes you can get some surprisingly localized straight line wind damage either due to poor construction or just a small pocket of stronger winds. The eyewitness reports of a funnel cloud are noteworthy. Was there any rotation on radar?

I didn't see any the first time, but I just looked again, and whaddya know...there does seem to be a small area of a bit of rotation

post-542-0-25113900-1313977970.png

post-542-0-00299800-1313978009.png

The yellow dot is approximately where the damage was

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Released earlier today:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1230 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

A STORM SURVEY CONDUCTED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONFIRMS AN
EF0 TORNADO OCCURRED NEAR CHESANING IN SAGINAW COUNTY SATURDAY
AUGUST 20, 2011. THE TRACK BEGAN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF MCKEIGHAN
AND BALDWIN RD AT APPROXIMATELY 300PM. THE TORNADO THEN TRACKED EAST
AND ENDED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF CHESANING AND STUART RD. TRACK
LENGTH WAS APPROXIMATELY 3 MILES. THE TORNADO WAS 100 YARDS WIDE
WITH WIND SPEEDS UP TO 80 MPH. DAMAGE WAS MAINLY LIMITED TO LARGE
TREES AND AN OVERTURNED TRAILER.

NWS ALSO SURVEYED DAMAGE IN WEST BLOOMFIELD FROM THE AUGUST 20 EVENT
AND FOUND THIS TO BE FROM THUNDERSTORM DOWNBURST WIND. THE DOWNBURST
OCCURRED AT APPROXIMATELY 450PM. THE MOST SEVERE DAMAGE WAS FOUND
ALONG MAPLE ROAD BETWEEN ORCHARD LAKE AND INKSTER ROADS. TREE DAMAGE
WAS SUBSTANTIAL IN THIS AREA WITH SOME STRUCTURAL DAMAGE CONSISTING
OF MOSTLY ROOFING MATERIAL. THIS DAMAGE PATTERN IS CONSISTENT WITH
WIND SPEED IN THE 70 TO 80 MPH RANGE.

$$

The individual elements in the line of storms coming through Oakland County (which was steadily propagating southeast) were actually moving to the northeast. I would absolutely expect tree damage in that direction (though there's usually too much emphasis placed on the "direction" thing anyway). The West Bloomfield report is too far to the north for me to say I was a witness to it (I think it was a completely different line segment that came through Royal Oak) -- but the evidence doesn't quite add up to it being tornadic (the radar image has sort of an inflection point, but that weak of a rotational signature in an environment that was not especially favorable for tornadoes is not convincing).

Marginal wind events, whether straight line or tornadic, will hit a few houses and miss a few houses. The same scene played out all over Royal Oak -- a large healthy tree downed, right next to another one still standing. One street looks like a war zone, and the next block is unscathed.

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Surprised 'on_wx' didn't post on this but probable tornado hit Goderich, Ontario along Lake Huron shore a few hours ago. Tornado warning was issued about 5 minutes before storm hit shore. Some damage video already.....

Local news is reporting a tornado went through Goderich a town of about 5000 which in NW of London on the Lake Huron shoreline about 4 pm this afternoon.

Sadly 1 fatality and initial estimates of at least 30 peope injured . The news footage showed substational damage to the center of the town. We know an elderly lady who lives not far from downtown and of course have no idea if she was impacted or not as all power is knocked out. Someone captured a video of the tornado on the lake as it approached the shoreline. Scary stuff.:(

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Local news is reporting a tornado went through Goderich a town of about 5000 which in NW of London on the Lake Huron shoreline about 4 pm this afternoon.

Sadly 1 fatality and initial estimates of at least 30 peope injured . The news footage showed substational damage to the center of the town. We know an elderly lady who lives not far from downtown and of course have no idea if she was impacted or not as all power is knocked out. Someone captured a video of the tornado on the lake as it approached the shoreline. Scary stuff.:(

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/24054-severe-tornado-in-goderich-ontario/

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