msp Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 nasty cell approaching KC from the northwest. i'm sitting here at a hotel in overland park, ks, and it looks like we may get some good boomers come through overnight. hail marker on GR2AE says 5.00" (hoping that misses us--wouldn't want a trashed car). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 nasty cell approaching KC from the northwest. i'm sitting here at a hotel in overland park, ks, and it looks like we may get some good boomers come through overnight. hail marker on GR2AE says 5.00" (hoping that misses us--wouldn't want a trashed car). Looks like some very rare 75 dbz showed up on that cell (at least on the Composite Radar). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Here is my latest smartwx output for Salina, KS. Getting some good convection in and around the area. http://smartwxmodel.net/KSLN.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Looks like some very rare 75 dbz showed up on that cell (at least on the Composite Radar). i've got a 79dbz pixel on one frame at 0.5 deg. BR.... 75+ is that blue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 had 80dbz on my color palette...with a serious TBSS, 80dbz went to to 14kft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Nice my buddy went down to the IA/NE border yesterday and got smoked he had some similar dbz measurements he got stuck in Onawa and had at least 2 inch hail, on gr2analyst i measured 77.5 dbz max, just some crazy wetted hail creating extreme dbz measurments . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 I just wish this pattern would smoke the hail cannons down in O'neil NE and see them try and defend the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 I just wish this pattern would smoke the hail cannons down in O'neil NE and see them try and defend the city. We have hail cannons on the north side of town they get set off for almost any scary looking cloud. Hasn't hailed more than brief marble size out this way in the 10 years i've lived here. But it's pretty awesome to hear them in a tstorm just adds effect like a tornado siren. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Another Saturday "General Tstorm Risk" day, another severe warned cell approaching. This one moving ESE out of Rock County, WI. Upstream parameters should favor this thing holding together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Another Saturday "General Tstorm Risk" day, another severe warned cell approaching. This one moving ESE out of Rock County, WI. Upstream parameters should favor this thing holding together. ya thats a nice little svr warned storm north of RFD, was popping >70dbz a few scans ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Chicago air and water show gonna be in jeopardy until that line passes through at least. Opening ceremonies set for 10 am CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Gusted to maybe 45. Pea sized hail. Another solid rain event. Low rainbow and clearing skies to nw. A couple scanner reports of trees / wires down north towards Harvard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Chicago air and water show gonna be in jeopardy until that line passes through at least. Opening ceremonies set for 10 am CDT. Catch the stream of the live radio coverage at wbbm780.com Always neat to listen to for a bit if you can't be there. They should be going live on location just after 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 small pocket of MUCAPE at 3000 j/kg just head of the line per mesoanalysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 ended up being a pretty good storm here, probably gusted to near 40mph, firecracker type thunder and pretty good lighning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Nice little line... It featured a decent shelf cloud, 20-30mph winds, and a good deal of cg's...which continue at this time. MLCAPE around 2000, deep layer shear around 40kts, and generally a westerly flow aloft...decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Hearing jets and thunder....and my head throbbing from an f-3 hangover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Could end being some decent storms in SEMI too... UPDATE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. GENERALLY EXPECT SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO FORM OVER THE REGION DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE STRONGEST/MOST ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL AT LEAST APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH BEST ESTIMATE OF PEAK ACTIVITY DURING THE 4 PM TO 8 PM TIME PERIOD. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND RADAR COMPOSITES INDICATE THE COLD FRONT QUITE ACTIVE FOR THIS TIME OF DAY, ESPECIALLY FROM CHICAGO INTO WEST-CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. MEANWHILE, SURFACE DEWPOINT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER SE MICHIGAN WHERE SURFACE HEATING IS ABUNDANT RESULTING IN AN INSTABILITY AXIS OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINT IS APPROACHING 70 WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THIS DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY MAX WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STORMS IN A MOSTLY UNCAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER AND HELP SUSTAIN THE EXISTING CONVECTION. OVERALL, WE SHOULD EXPECT BETTER ORGANIZATION AS THE ACTIVITY MATURES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE HELP OF A RESPECTABLE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD INCREASING TO AROUND 40 KNOTS AT 500 MB. THIS WILL MAKE DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY HAZARD BUT WITH LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Dewpoints pooling ahead of the line in Michiana...Warsaw 75/75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Could end being some decent storms in SEMI too... 15% wind/hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Looks like the severe part of the line may stay north of 59 towards Flint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Weeeeee URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 792 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 140 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LAKE ERIE LAKE HURON EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 140 PM UNTIL 900 PM EDT. HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF JACKSON MICHIGAN TO 30 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF FLINT MICHIGAN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. DISCUSSION...A LINEAR CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING EWD FROM LAKE MI INTO SW LOWER MI. THOUGH DOWNSTREAM ANVIL HAS LIMITED SURFACE HEATING...SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 ARE STILL SUPPORTING MLCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG. LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG OVER LOWER MI...BUT 40 KT WLY MIDLEVEL FLOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED BOWING SEGMENTS AND CLUSTERS. A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CONVECTION SPREADS EWD TOWARD SE LOWER MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Bunch of people at the air show at selfridge and the dream cruise. Hopefully the proper precautionary actions are taken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T Denninger Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Perfect weekend for camping. -.- I'm at Lakeport State Park. Looks like I'll be staying inside the motor home for the rest of the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Line is starting to get its act together. Curious if the southern part will go severe soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 interesting report from earlier PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 845 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0810 AM HAIL 3 ESE NEWARK 42.52N 89.18W 08/20/2011 E1.00 INCH ROCK WI LAW ENFORCEMENT PEA TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL. ACCUMULATED UP TO 6 INCHES. TIME ESTIMATED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 adding to the incredibly deadly year PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 1107 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0443 PM TORNADO WAUSAUKEE 45.36N 87.94W 08/19/2011 MARINETTE WI NWS STORM SURVEY *** 1 FATAL *** CONFIRMED TORNADO RATED EF1 WITH WINDS OF 105 MPH. TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN NORTH OF LONG LAKE...NEAR LONG LAKE ROAD AND MOVED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTH SIDE OF WAUSAUKEE. IT REMAINED ON THE GROUND FOR ABOUT 15 MINUTES BEFORE DISSIPATING WEST OF THE MENOMINEE RIVER NEAR MUD LAKE AROUND 458 PM. PATH WIDTH WAS 125 YDS AND PATH LENGTH 5 MILES. SEVERAL STRUCTURES WERE DAMAGED INCLUDING A TRAILER WHICH WAS COMPLETELY DEMOLISHED. THESE RESULTS ARE PRELIMINARY WITH ADDITIONAL DETAILS TO BE PROVIDED LATER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Impressive approach of the storm. Nice mini shelf cloud. Extremely low clouds. Usually the sirens go off before the storm arrives but not this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Thundering here now, warnings SW of here, but a nasty cell of radar heading this way SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 5:34 PM EDT SATURDAY 20 AUGUST 2011. --------------------------------------------------------------------- WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR: =NEW= SARNIA - PETROLIA - WESTERN LAMBTON COUNTY =NEW= WATFORD - PINERY PARK - EASTERN LAMBTON COUNTY =NEW= STRATHROY - KOMOKA - WESTERN MIDDLESEX COUNTY =NEW= LONDON - PARKHILL - EASTERN MIDDLESEX COUNTY. A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM GRAND BEND TO WESTERN LAKE ST CLAIR IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 40 KM/H. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS TO 90 KM/H, HAIL OF 2 CM IN DIAMETER, AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T Denninger Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 About 3 inches here at Lakeport. It didn't get that windy, but there wa continuous cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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