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August 15-21 Severe Threats


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SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN

ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA

AT 2:55 PM EDT WEDNESDAY 17 AUGUST 2011.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN ONTARIO...

TORNADO WARNING FOR:

=NEW= TIMMINS - COCHRANE - IROQUOIS FALLS.

AT 2:50 PM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THAT A SEVERE

THUNDERSTORM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ROTATION AND IS CAPABLE OF

PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS THUNDERSTORM IS 100 KM WEST OF

TIMMINS AND IS TRACKING EASTWARD AT 100 KM/H.

Heh, here comes the calvary --

THE PROVINCE OF ONTARIO HAS ISSUED A RED ALERT DUE TO A TORNADO WARNING IN TIMMINS - COCHRANE - IROQUOIS FALLS

Emergency Situation: Environment Canada has issued a Tornado Warning in an area described as TIMMINS - COCHRANE, AND IROQUIS FALLS.

Recommended Actions: Emergency Management Ontario recommends that persons in the area described above IMMEDIATELY shelter. Everyone in this area should immediately move indoors, and away from doors and windows, preferably into a basement area if that is possible. Do not pick up family members from schools, daycares and institutions such as hospitals and nursing homes. Plans are in place to protect them. People currently outside this area are advised not to enter this area until further notice. If it is safe to do so, pets and livestock should be removed quickly from outside. Do not call 911 for information about this emergency.

This Red Alert will end at 1535 hrs, unless a further extension is requested.

For further information visit www.ontario.ca/emo.

Meh.

post-277-0-65643600-1313610008.png

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Wow, these things are terrible...

EMO couldn't keep up with their red alerts during the tornado warnings on July 23 for six counties spanned over about two hours. They progressively got worse with each new warning missing some, making up areas, adding areas that weren't under a warning, etc etc.

Can't wait to see how they deal with an outbreak!

:rolleyes:

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mcd1994.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1994

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0300 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN SD...WRN NEB...NE CO AND FAR NW KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 172000Z - 172200Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT THAT

COULD REQUIRE A WW LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION REMAINS UNCLEAR...AND

IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THIS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY IN SUPPORT

OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION IS ONGOING NEAR THE LEE

SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WHERE LATEST RUC GUIDANCE

SUGGESTS MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...IN THE

PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CONSIDERABLE INHIBITION

FOR BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS LINGERS...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE IN THE

PROCESS OF WEAKENING ALONG AN AXIS OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING EAST

OF SIDNEY NEB NORTHWARD THROUGH AREAS NEAR/WEST OF PHILIP SD. HIGH

RESOLUTION MODEL DATA ARE CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THAT THE

INITIATION OF SCATTERED STORMS WILL OCCUR WITH ADDITIONAL INSOLATION

ACROSS THIS GENERAL AREA DURING THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME. ONCE STORMS

FORM...MODESTLY STRONG AND SHEARED WEST NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW

WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...PRIMARILY WITH

POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..KERR.. 08/17/2011

ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

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SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN

ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA

AT 5:47 PM EDT WEDNESDAY 17 AUGUST 2011.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN ONTARIO...

TORNADO WARNING FOR:

=NEW= KAPUSKASING - HEARST - SMOOTH ROCK FALLS

=NEW= LITTLE ABITIBI - KESAGAMI LAKE.

AT 5:40 PM EDT, WEATHER RADAR INDICATES THAT A SEVERE

THUNDERSTORM 40 KM EAST OF KAPUSKASING IS SHOWING SIGNS OF

ROTATION. THE THUNDERSTORM IS TRACKING NORTHEAST AT 80 KM/H AND

IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO.

Ah yes, the calvary are back

August 17, 2011 6:03 PM

THE PROVINCE OF ONTARIO HAS ISSUED A RED ALERT FOR KAPUSKASING - HEARST - SMOOTH ROCK FALLS - LITTLE ABITIBI - KESAGAMI LAKE

Emergency Situation: Environment Canada has issued a Tornado Warning in an area described as KAPUSKASING - HEARST - SMOOTH ROCK FALLS - LITTLE ABITIBI - KESAGAMI LAKE

Recommended Actions: Emergency Management Ontario recommends that persons in the area described above IMMEDIATELY shelter. Everyone in this area should immediately move indoors, and away from doors and windows, preferably into a basement area if that is possible. Do not pick up family members from schools, daycares and institutions such as hospitals and nursing homes. Plans are in place to protect them. People currently outside this area are advised not to enter this area until further notice. If it is safe to do so, pets and livestock should be removed quickly from outside. Do not call 911 for information about this emergency. This Red Alert will end at 1900 hrs, unless a further extension is requested.

That there tornado warning is about 320km long.

post-277-0-64092600-1313619060.png

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Multiple supercells lined up across North NE/SD.

These are both for the same storm (Cherry County, NE again). Strong couplet evident and Mullen is directly in the path of this...

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE

545 PM MDT WED AUG 17 2011

NEC031-180015-

/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0304.000000T0000Z-110818T0015Z/

CHERRY NE-

545 PM MDT WED AUG 17 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL CHERRY

COUNTY UNTIL 615 PM MDT...

AT 544 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND

EXTREME DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 100 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED

9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HIGHWAY 97 CROSSING BIG CREEK...OR 15 MILES

NORTH OF MULLEN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

HIGHWAY 97 MILE MARKER 80.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS EXHIBITED SOME WEAK ROTATION. TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP

QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH ONE IS NOT IMMEDIATELY

LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF

SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE... SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL

INTERIOR ROOM.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE

540 PM MDT WED AUG 17 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTH CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 615 PM MDT

* AT 535 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS

STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF ROUND LAKE...OR 31 MILES

NORTHWEST OF MULLEN...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

SPECKEL MEIR LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A

STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR

OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT

YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

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Do you have the velocities?

New Warning, includes Mullen.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE

607 PM MDT WED AUG 17 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTH CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

NORTHERN HOOKER COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 645 PM MDT

* AT 602 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS

STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES EAST OF WHITMAN ROAD CROSSING THE NORTH

BRANCH OF THE MIDDLE LOUP RIVER...OR 19 MILES NORTHWEST OF

MULLEN...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

MULLEN AND HIGHWAY 2 MILE MARKER 170.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A

STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR

OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT

YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

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Man nice radar shots from today, tomorrow is another high risk high reward day, not sure if the 7 hour drive will be worth it. I really wish the low level wind flow was a bit stronger but i'm leaning towards a no go just too far to drive and very unlikely to get anything other than a brief spin up.

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Based off the 12z RUC alone I'd like to be along the NE/SD border, it develops a small area of low pressure around 21z which the sfc winds respond to and back in northern NE into SD near the low and getting a good 50kt mid-level jet max coming out of WY late this afternoon/evening which should help set off CI.

If something can stay discrete and allow the LLJ to get going after 0z, were getting 0-1km helicity values between 150-200 m2/s2 juxtaposed with ALOT of instability and moisture...I would rule out a strong tornado this evening.

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Soft ball sized hail just reported on the west side of downtown Omaha

Live out of Omaha: http://ww2.wowt.com/...ed&rnd=50877192

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA

515 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

0510 PM HAIL OMAHA 41.26N 96.01W

08/18/2011 E1.75 INCH DOUGLAS NE TRAINED SPOTTER

UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL NEAR 40TH STREET AND NORTH POST

ROAD.

0512 PM HAIL OMAHA 41.26N 96.01W

08/18/2011 E2.75 INCH DOUGLAS NE TRAINED SPOTTER

UP TO SOFTBALL SIZE HAIL AT INTERSTATE 680 AND 48TH

STREET

0518 PM HAIL 1 N OMAHA 41.28N 96.01W

08/18/2011 E1.75 INCH DOUGLAS NE AMATEUR RADIO

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