baroclinic_instability Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Definitely have a few worthy threats for the day 3+ to day 7-8 range. First is the de-amplifying Aleutian Low day 3-4 which is progged to eject into the northern plains/Canadian plains as a powerful and sharp shortwave. Given the progged low level thermal fields and rapidly adjusting wind fields/deepening of the system, it seems likely organized severe weather will occur as this system crosses through the northern high plains/northern plains. Globals are hinting at possible day6+ threat as well as the Hudson Bay vortex establishes itself and a strong jet max ejects on the backside of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 I will take order of the 12z GFS at 180hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted August 13, 2011 Author Share Posted August 13, 2011 I will take order of the 12z GFS at 180hrs I like the day 7 EC bomb off Alaska. Looks like a bomb went off. Honestly I am just glad to see some interesting weather on the horizon. The summer doldrums are coming to an end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Also liking that 985 mb triple barrel low over Manitoba... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 144 hr and 168 hr GFS are nasty from the Northern/North Central Plains into the MS Valley and Great Lakes... Hodos are menacing looking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Geez the 0z GFS with the wave next saturday really tanks it and closes it off even in southern Manitoba into Ontario, check out that 850mb low and the LLJ response...60kts in IA/IL/WI with westerly mid-level flow. I know its days away but quite the impressive run. There would be some problems on the cold front I'd say. Just for sh*ts and gigs..for between I-80/88 saturday evening lol can't believe I'm even posting this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Smashing those sorts of winds aloft into late summer instability would just be asking for trouble... Snippet from MPX's most recent discussion.. KEPT LOW POPS MAINLY WESTERN AREAS MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH BETTERFORCING REMAINING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. SURFACE TROF DEVELOPING ACROSS E MT INTO WY ON SUNDAY REMAINS PRETTY MUCH IN PLACE UNTIL IT GETS PICKED UP TUESDAY/WED BY STRONG UPPER TROF COMING OUT OF PACIFIC NW. BUMPED POPS UP FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH GFS/ECMWF SHOWING SIMILAR TIMING ON MOVING CDFNT AND UPPER TROF ACROSS OUR AREA. STRONG WLY MID LVL WNDS ACROSS AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CREATE FAVORABLE DEEP SHEAR FOR STRONG STORMS. ANOTHER FALL-LIKE UPPER TROF LURKING AHEAD FOR LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH DEEP UPPER TROF PROPELLING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS AREA. PRETTY MUCH WENT WITH THE HPC GUIDANCE 30-40% POPS VALUES FOR THIS SYSTEM. FSD's discussion for Tuesday... A PRETTY CLEAR START IS CERTAIN FOR SUNDAY WITH JUST A FEW HIGHCLOUDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BEGIN SLOWLY WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUD INCREASE AND SURFACE WARMING ACCORDINGLY SLOW. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN UPSTAIRS FOR SOME ISOLATED TO MARGINALLY SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE MONDAY WITH STORMS GRADUALLY GAINING STRENGTH POTENTIAL...THOUGH AT THIS TIME SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SEEMS SMALL. THAT WILL COME WITH TUESDAY STORMS...WITH INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE PEAKING ALONG WITH INCREASING SHEAR POTENTIAL. WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD CLEAR OUT PRETTY EARLY AND ALLOW FOR HEATING TO BE ADDED TO THE MIX. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTIES STILL...ALL ASSOCIATED WITH TIMING...BUT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING MAY BE QUITE BUSY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Geez the 0z GFS with the wave next saturday really tanks it and closes it off even in southern Manitoba into Ontario, check out that 850mb low and the LLJ response...60kts in IA/IL/WI with westerly mid-level flow. I know its days away but quite the impressive run. There would be some problems on the cold front I'd say. Just for sh*ts and gigs..for between I-80/88 saturday evening lol can't believe I'm even posting this That would probably be the first legit chase worthy potential since late June. Too bad it's a week away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 That would probably be the first legit chase worthy potential since late June. Too bad it's a week away... I haven't seen a tornado since early April... and with flags and H7, keeping up with any storm should be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Awaiting the new 4-8 day rather eagerly to see what the SPC thinks of this... Just crazy H85 and even below that flow on that GFS. Edit: Still too far out for the SPC to note anything further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Would southern Manitoba be at risk? I really like seeing the deep low in central MB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Well, the 12Z GFS really crapped out on the severe potential next weekend, pushing the trough way up north. ECMWF shows a similar pattern.. Still, far out though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 Hey guys, is there any potential next week (21st to the 29th)? I'm thinking of heading out to Winnipeg to visit my relatives and I might also consider heading south and see if I can get a storm chase in or two... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted August 15, 2011 Author Share Posted August 15, 2011 Talk about a day 2 bomb. Models are still in catch up mode to the rapid intensification. Going to be an interesting event. Not the prettiest shaped hodographs but very steep low level lapse rates and MLCAPE pushing 2500 j/kg, looks to be an active day for MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted August 15, 2011 Author Share Posted August 15, 2011 One thing is absolutely certain though, the low is going to be absolutely GORGEOUS on satellite as it bombs out into Wednesday. Going to have a classic rapid intensification positive feedback signature with a long line of DMC along the front and a huge dryslot. A little teaser look at what satellite will look like tomorrow. Kudos to the UKMET for nailing this bomb every run more or less since day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 18Z GFS puts Wisconsin back in the hot seat over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted August 15, 2011 Author Share Posted August 15, 2011 18Z GFS puts Wisconsin back in the hot seat over the weekend. We still have tomorrow to go through. For whatever reason this event is getting zero attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 The LLJ response tomorrow could get interesting if that low intensifies as much as indicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 18Z GFS puts Wisconsin back in the hot seat over the weekend. MKX has said nothing regarding potential severe yet, as they indicate how many disagreements there are amongst the models. Sounds like at least a few days until this starts to get sorted out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 We still have tomorrow to go through. For whatever reason this event is getting zero attention. Yeah, this thread is quiet in terms of today's event. SPC is not very bullish on it, but still enough for a slight risk across most of Minnesota and Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 How is the potential weekend event looking? Looks like plenty of cape to work with in the C and N Mississippi Valley and S Great Lakes, but timing of the features will likely tell the story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 5:49 PM EDT TUESDAY 16 AUGUST 2011. --------------------------------------------------------------------- WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN ONTARIO... TORNADO WARNING FOR: =NEW= KENORA - GRASSY NARROWS - WHITEDOG =NEW= DRYDEN - VERMILION BAY =NEW= EAR FALLS - PERRAULT FALLS - WESTERN LAC SEUL SIOUX LOOKOUT - EASTERN LAC SEUL. AT 5:40 PM EDT WEATHER OBSERVATIONS AT THE SIOUX LOOKOUT AIRPORT INDICATE A TORNADO TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AIRPORT. WEATHER RADAR ALSO INDICATES SEVERAL OTHER THUNDERSTORMS EXHIBITING ROTATION IN THE TO THE NORTHEAST OF KENORA AND ALSO JUST EAST OF GRASSY NARROWS. THE MOTION OF THE THUNDERSTORMS IS TO THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 70 KM/H. ]WEATHER SUMMARY FOR NORTHERN ONTARIO ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 6:36 PM EDT TUESDAY 16 AUGUST 2011. ------------------------------------------------------------- ==WEATHER EVENT DISCUSSION== ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS CONFIRMED, THROUGH PHOTO AND VIDEO EVIDENCE, ONTARIOS FOURTH TORNADO OF THE SEASON. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT A TORNADO WITH A LONG TRACK - ROUGHLY 80 KM - FROM WEST OF KENORA NORTHEASTWARD TO BETWEEN LAC SEUL AND SIOUX LOOKOUT AND POSSIBLY BEYOND OCCURED ON TUESDAY AUGUST 16TH BETWEEN ABOUT 4:15 PM AND 5:45 PM EDT. A FUJITA SCALE RATING OF THIS STORM HAS YET TO BE ESTABLISHED, BUT WOULD BE DETERMINED BASED ON EVIDENCE OF DAMAGE THAT MAY BE FORTHCOMING. THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AS FURTHER INFORMATION IS RECEIVED. THIS WEATHER SUMMARY CONTAINS PRELIMINARY INFORMATION AND MAY NOT CONSTITUTE AN OFFICIAL OR FINAL REPORT. END/OSPC Video of the tornado: http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/storm_watch_stories3&stormfile=dryden_tornado_warning_160811 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Jesus that has to be one of the longer track Canadian tornadoes of recent times if it is confirmed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Jesus that has to be one of the longer track Canadian tornadoes of recent times if it is confirmed... usually they start out with a long path then they break it down into separate tornadoes. I don't know how NW ON damage surveys are conducted since it's a days drive from the WFO. They might have some engineers in the ares take a look that will report back with their findings. So the survey may not be too accurate. Will have to wait and see I'm just speculatig. And four tornados for the year so far is almost pathetic. Most years we'd be up to 15-20 by now. Dreadfully slow yr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 And four tornados for the year so far is almost pathetic. Most years we'd be up to 15-20 by now. Dreadfully slow yr. All of the dynamics have been staying south of the border this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Couple of OBs from Sioux Lookout Airport signifying the tornado CYXL 162138Z CCA 18016G21KT 15SM +FC FEW020 BKN045CB OVC120 RMK CF2CB4AC2 TORNADO NW MOVG E OCNL -SHRA CYXL 162123Z 18016G21KT 15SM TS FEW020 BKN045CB OVC120 RMK CF2CB4AC2 TORNADO NW MOVG E OCNL -SHRA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 I like the Setup on the 18z GFS for the OV. Nice height falls. It may verify over the lakes though but still a good setup for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/storm_watch_stories3&stormfile=dryden_tornado_warning_160811 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 The Forest Fire Services of Northern Ontario are taking a helicopter up today to survey the damage paths from the tornado for Environment Canada. Here is a new video of the tornado as it passed near Dryden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 small svr threat here today along front but really wish i was in northeast CO today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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