GaWx Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Doing some cursory research, if Franklin does not become a hurricane, this would be the first time ever that we have had six tropical storms to start the year with none of them becoming hurricanes. Of course some of the storms this year may not have been designated tropical storms in previous eras. In fact, doing some quick looking up, the only time we have had the first five tropical storms of they year not become hurricanes was in 1907. As was mentioned, you missed 2002. This is still quite unusual. The chance for any one TS to become a H is ~60% without analyzing the specifics of that TS. So, chances of 1st six being only TS = ~.4 to 6th power or 0.4% (1/250). So, the simplest way to look at this is to say that about one in every 250 seasons has this occur. However, since there may be some conditions that may favor lots of TS's not becoming H's in any one season, the chance may actually be quite a bit larger than 1 in 250. Obviously, there could have been seasons other than 2002 do this before there were satellites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Not quite true -- 2002 had 6 tropical storms before the first hurricane (Gustav). 2006 also had 5 tropical storms before the first hurricane (Ernesto), although a case can me made that Ernesto never even reached hurricane strength. So with Franklin, we're tied with the record. Interestingly eniugh, 2002 was an el nino summer/autumn/winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Some seasons are just late bloomers.We didn't get the first hurricane in 2001 until September but kept going until early December. A few close in majors and nobody will remember what happened early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Some seasons are just late bloomers.We didn't get the first hurricane in 2001 until September but kept going until early December. A few close in majors and nobody will remember what happened early in the season. This board is to easy, all it would take is a Cat 5 storm raking into Florida and all would be forgiven! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Irene and Gert are the 1950/60s style names, like Hazel, that just sound impressive. Grannycanes™ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Franklin looks to follow in the footsteps of its five predecessors in terms of lameness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Is there any link between the predominance of the -NAO and named storms failing to make hurricane status? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Looks like Franklin's circulation has become compleatly entangled with the frontal boundary... look for this to go post-tropical in the next 6-12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegreatdr Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Gert in 1993 was reasonably impressive, if you look at its size and effects on land. It mainly impacted Central America and Mexico. It even survived passage across the width of Mexico and became a tropical depression in the eastern Pacific (TD-14E). The 2011 name list was used in 1981, 1987, 1993, 1999 and 2005. Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Emily, Gert, Harvey, Irene, and Jose have all been used before some of them notable (Bret '99, Emily '93, '05, Irene '99 and Jose '99) but in general those are names relatively untouched in hurricane history. I have long expected Hurricane Gert to stand out in the books but with 94L seeming to spin as the visible comes up, I have my doubts. Personally, Hurricane Harvey sounds like a decent name. Irene kinda bores me especially after the long, ill-defined storm of the name in 2005. I say Hurricane Harvey or Hurricane Jose. They can have Irene. Enough with the big "I" storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Grannycanes™ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 The End SATELLITE IMAGERY...INCLUDING MICROWAVE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA...INDICATE THAT FRANKLIN HAS BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVERTHE NORTH ATLANTIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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