Snow_Miser Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al952011.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201108121210 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2011, DB, O, 2011081212, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL952011 AL, 95, 2011081212, , BEST, 0, 348N, 668W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, Four concurrent Invests at once... should be an interesting hurricane season... EDIT: The first Public Advisory on TD 6 has now been issued. BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062011 500 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NORTH OF BERMUDA...MOVING AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.0N 63.9W ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM N OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.85 INCHES And there is a pretty good chance that it could become TS Franklin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 12, 2011 Author Share Posted August 12, 2011 What's odd is that on the Satellite Services Division site, they don't have a floater on 95L. 95L is the small blob roughly a few hundred miles to the east of North Carolina. It should definitely be a fish storm, and it will continue heading to the NE. In my opinion, this storm looks a lot like TD 1 of 2009. It should also take a similar path to TD 1 of 2009, (although further east.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 12, 2011 Author Share Posted August 12, 2011 Looking good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 isn't it attached to a front? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 isn't it attached to a front? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 12, 2011 Author Share Posted August 12, 2011 isn't it attached to a front? Yep... if this can edge away from the front, then it could become a Tropical Cyclone. We'll have to wait and see, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 95l is definitely a separate entity still and should be the first invest of the current bunch to become a TC briefly before extra tropical transition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 The 12z OPC surface analysis showed 95L attatched to a weak stationary front: http://www.opc.ncep...._full_ocean.jpg If the front can wash out or if 95L can seperate from it (which it may be doing now, I don't see a ton of evidence of a strong front on current visible satellite images, although there are weak signs it's still attatched on both sides) 95L could probably develop into a tropical cyclone at any time. It has a well defined LLC under convection with good outflow due to being on the edge of the westerlies: Edit: Just saw that the 2pm TWO increased this to a 60% chance of development Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Its like a baby attached to its umbilical cord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 95l is definitely a separate entity still and should be the first invest of the current bunch to become a TC briefly before extra tropical transition. Isn't it funny how we start "naming" proto-TCs before they form, and then the name turns out to be a later name, because something unexpected developed from something else first? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 TD 6 is born BEGINNHC_ATCF invest_RENUMBER_al952011_al062011.ren FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201108122008 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_RENUMBER_al952011_al062011.ren FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201108122008 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 I agree with the call, it's unmistakably a TC right now. It's probably already a TS in fact given the relatively fast storm motion adding to the winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Pretty similar to the last Franklin, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 i expect the named thunderstorm complex thread to be bumped shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 i expect the named thunderstorm complex thread to be bumped shortly Not until 96L pops up near 32N/73W... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 i expect the named thunderstorm complex thread to be bumped shortly How depressing 6-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 This is so frustrating. At least we are getting the lame names out of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Wow-- lame. I can't think of a less-interesting setup. The silver lining is that it'll get Franklin out of the way. I don't want to chase a Franklin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Irene and Gert are the 1950/60s style names, like Hazel, that just sound impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Irene and Gert are the 1950/60s style names, like Hazel, that just sound impressive. Agreed. Those are two classic names. One of these days they will score big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Irene and Gert are the 1950/60s style names, like Hazel, that just sound impressive. "I" names have always been my fav... especially recently with Ivan, Ike, and Igor. Second only to "C" in terms of number of names retired... Because the name of a TC clearly has an effect on what it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 "I" names have always been my fav... especially recently with Ivan, Ike, and Igor. Second only to "C" in terms of number of names retired... Because the name of a TC clearly has an effect on what it does. yes it does indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Hi Franklin BEST TRACK: AL06, 373N 612W, 35kts, 1006mb, TS SIX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Tropical Storm Franklin is definitely on the move northeast this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 OK, cool. This is Franklin and it's moving out to sea. I will not be chasing a Franklin. This piece of crap has therefore served its purpose. Cool. The only other name I'm really not into is Harvey. Otherwise, they're all good. This aside, it's amazing that we're up to six named storms, with none of them reaching hurricane strength. Very weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 OK, cool. This is Franklin and it's moving out to sea. I will not be chasing a Franklin. This piece of crap has therefore served its purpose. Cool. The only other name I'm really not into is Harvey. Otherwise, they're all good. This aside, it's amazing that we're up to six named storms, with none of them reaching hurricane strength. Very weird. Doing some cursory research, if Franklin does not become a hurricane, this would be the first time ever that we have had six tropical storms to start the year with none of them becoming hurricanes. Of course some of the storms this year may not have been designated tropical storms in previous eras. In fact, doing some quick looking up, the only time we have had the first five tropical storms of they year not become hurricanes was in 1907. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Doing some cursory research, if Franklin does not become a hurricane, this would be the first time ever that we have had six tropical storms to start the year with none of them becoming hurricanes. Of course some of the storms this year may not have been designated tropical storms in previous eras. In fact, doing some quick looking up, the only time we have had the first five tropical storms of they year not become hurricanes was in 1907. Thank you for doing that research! I was curious to know these stats but was too lazy to check. That is amazing-- that Franklin will make this a first-time-ever occurrence. Cool in its own lame way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 OK, cool. This is Franklin and it's moving out to sea. I will not be chasing a Franklin. This piece of crap has therefore served its purpose. Cool. The only other name I'm really not into is Harvey. Otherwise, they're all good. This aside, it's amazing that we're up to six named storms, with none of them reaching hurricane strength. Very weird. The 2011 name list was used in 1981, 1987, 1993, 1999 and 2005. Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Emily, Gert, Harvey, Irene, and Jose have all been used before some of them notable (Bret '99, Emily '93, '05, Irene '99 and Jose '99) but in general those are names relatively untouched in hurricane history. I have long expected Hurricane Gert to stand out in the books but with 94L seeming to spin as the visible comes up, I have my doubts. Personally, Hurricane Harvey sounds like a decent name. Irene kinda bores me especially after the long, ill-defined storm of the name in 2005. I say Hurricane Harvey or Hurricane Jose. They can have Irene. Enough with the big "I" storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Doing some cursory research, if Franklin does not become a hurricane, this would be the first time ever that we have had six tropical storms to start the year with none of them becoming hurricanes. Of course some of the storms this year may not have been designated tropical storms in previous eras. In fact, doing some quick looking up, the only time we have had the first five tropical storms of they year not become hurricanes was in 1907. Not quite true -- 2002 had 6 tropical storms before the first hurricane (Gustav). 2006 also had 5 tropical storms before the first hurricane (Ernesto), although a case can me made that Ernesto never even reached hurricane strength. So with Franklin, we're tied with the record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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