k*** Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Ah, thanks, I didn't think to check post-2000 WPAC seasons. It's weird, I almost want to keep the streak going – but I'm probably in the minority. I don't mind either...another week or two of this would be fun just because it causes some of the NHC bashers to freak out about the inflation of storm numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011 200 PM AST SUN AUG 14 2011 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO THE SEVENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.6N 63.1W ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 let's see if this one can bust wxwatcher91's trolling about no 50kt storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 small storm...decent chance Bermuda doesn't get TS winds from this since it will be on the west side of a small system. BWS This is Bermuda "smoking" from differential heating over the Island with SSW winds ahead of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegreatdr Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Another convective low north of Bermuda is causing that SSW flow. =) It's beginning to seem like 1984, where most systems originated from/within the westerlies. small storm...decent chance Bermuda doesn't get TS winds from this since it will be on the west side of a small system. BWS This is Bermuda "smoking" from differential heating over the Island with SSW winds ahead of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Another convective low north of Bermuda is causing that SSW flow. =) It's beginning to seem like 1984, where most systems originated from/within the westerlies. yeah I noticed, that isn't from Gert lol. Besides Igor, Bermuda had a couple close passes from **** systems last year that caused us to issue TS warnings etc. only to get 10 kt winds and a few showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Small point: it's TD 7, not TD 7L. Don't know why I care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 The in situ environment isn't terrible right now...less than 10 kt of shear...warm SSTs...some upper level diverge and a reasonable pocket of moist air according to the PWAT analysis. I wonder if it can do something decent in the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 I believe Gert's track will verify east of the NHC official track. Also, it may end up b a bit stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 I am starting to feel very 20/0/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 Ah, thanks, I didn't think to check post-2000 WPAC seasons. It's weird, I almost want to keep the streak going – but I'm probably in the minority. I'm totally down for a continuation of ATL TS's and EPAC hurricanes....just to see the reaction of the weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 The in situ environment isn't terrible right now...less than 10 kt of shear...warm SSTs...some upper level diverge and a reasonable pocket of moist air according to the PWAT analysis. I wonder if it can do something decent in the next 24 hours. Agreed... its pretty much swallowing up 92L right now and has actually developed a pretty decent CDO. It's small size and current favorable environment argue that this could get significantly stronger than the 50 knot forecast the NHC currently has. Cat 1 hurricane intensity is certainly within the realm of possibility. The latest microwave also suggests that an inner core is developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 current Bermuda radar BWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 a larger composite view showing the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 small storm...decent chance Bermuda doesn't get TS winds from this since it will be on the west side of a small system. BWS This is Bermuda "smoking" from differential heating over the Island with SSW winds ahead of the system. Bermuda may get more from 92L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 a larger composite view showing the center. Looks like this thing is trying to form an eye, much better than anything that has formed this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 15, 2011 Author Share Posted August 15, 2011 50 knots, in the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king, er, queen. OK, it doesn't have an eye, but I think you get the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegreatdr Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 If it forms an eye within visible satellite imagery, it would be the third TC to do so in the Atlantic this year, after Bret and Cindy. Looks like this thing is trying to form an eye, much better than anything that has formed this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 16, 2011 Author Share Posted August 16, 2011 Ya murio. Pining for the fjords... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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