Ed Lizard Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al942011.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201108121249 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 12, 2011 Author Share Posted August 12, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 12, 2011 Author Share Posted August 12, 2011 Its the NAM, but the thread isn't drowning in traffic, so what the heck... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 12, 2011 Author Share Posted August 12, 2011 92L gets an airplane and the closer invest doesn't. 000NOUS42 KNHC 121400 COR WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1000 AM EDT FRI 12 AUGUST 2011 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z AUGUST 2011 TCPOD NUMBER.....11-073 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: LOW LEVEL INVEST AT 14/1800Z NEAR 24.0N 59.0W. 3. REMARKS: FOLLOW-ON FLIGHT ON 15 AUG AT 18Z NEAR 28N 64W. THEN 12 HOURLY REQUIREMENTS AFTER THAT. POSSIBLE TASKING ON SUBSEQUENT ATLANTIC SYSTEM ON 16 AUG. ---CORRECTED II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE. NLM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Is this one the remnant of Emily? Or is she gone forever? Sorry so many disturbances to keep track of.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Is this one the remnant of Emily? Or is she gone forever? Sorry so many disturbances to keep track of.. I haven't been tracking it that closely, but if you go into the General Atlantic thread, CUMet makes a pretty compelling case that 94L is not related to Emily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 I haven't been tracking it that closely, but if you go into the General Atlantic thread, CUMet makes a pretty compelling case that 94L is not related to Emily. Yep, found that post. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Looks like we've got ourselves a tangerine! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Looks like we've got ourselves a tangerine! They upgraded to 30% at the 8 PM update and it has remained status quo since as far as the updates are concerned... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Looking better, just need some deeper convection to initiate consolidation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 425 MILES SOUTHEAST OFBERMUDA HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FORA TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THISSYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICALCYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT10 TO 15 MPH. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OFTHIS SYSTEM. Stewart has raised the ante to 60% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Based off the well defined surface circulation and the increasing convection over the center... this system will likely become a tropical cyclone within 12 hours. 94L will likely become the future Gert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Yep, looks like this will be classified in the near-future as the low-level swirl is vigorous and convection respectably organized around the center. The broad disturbance as a whole has made the split the ECMWF/GFS were advertising, with the northern part developing and going out to sea. The southern split actually has some low-level vorticity, but if anything were to organize, it would take a very long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 And this will be seven lame tropical storms in a row. Just wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 The next POS Depression is declared... BEGINNHC_ATCF invest_RENUMBER_al942011_al072011.ren FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201108140037 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 14, 2011 Author Share Posted August 14, 2011 Thread title edit. TS Watches for Bermuda... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Compelling stuff right here. Better get out my tracking map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 And this will be seven lame tropical storms in a row. Just wow. watch out for ginx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 14, 2011 Author Share Posted August 14, 2011 watch out for ginx Cat 4 Irene hits Tampa in 2 weeks, like Charley but further North, just like the TWC "It Could Happen Tomorrow", and 7 or 8 lame-o's to start the season will be forgotten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Cat 4 Irene hits Tampa in 2 weeks, like Charley but further North, just like the TWC "It Could Happen Tomorrow", and 7 or 8 lame-o's to start the season will be forgotten. it might be more fun to cycle through the whole list on lame tropical storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 14, 2011 Author Share Posted August 14, 2011 it might be more fun to cycle through the whole list on lame tropical storms Like 2005, except all lame. Lame-o Greek letter storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 14, 2011 Author Share Posted August 14, 2011 It looks like the shear is lessening, I'm starting to see a hint of feathery cirrus to the West/Southwest of the convection. /Always glass half full. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 14, 2011 Author Share Posted August 14, 2011 Airplane data tomorrow! NOUS42 KNHC 131515WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTSCARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.1115 AM EDT SAT 13 AUGUST 2011 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z AUGUST 2011 TCPOD NUMBER.....11-074 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA #1 (94L...NEAR BERMUDA) FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 A. 14/1800Z B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST C. 14/1500Z D. 31.5N 62.5W E. 14/1730Z TO 14/2230Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT 2. SUSPECT AREA #2 (92L...SOUTH OF BERMUDA) FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 A. 15/1200Z B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST C. 15/0900Z D. 30.0N 64.5W E. 15/1130Z TO 15/1630Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT 3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE FIX MISSION FOR 16/0000Z NEAR 34.0N 64.0W IF SECOND SYSTEM DEVELOPS. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE. SEF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 14, 2011 Author Share Posted August 14, 2011 It looks like the shear is lessening, I'm starting to see a hint of feathery cirrus to the West/Southwest of the convection. /Always glass half full. Well, judging from IR imagery (vis should confirm) the center is completely exposed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 If current forecasts verify, Gert will be named and will remain a minimal to moderate tropical storm. As the seventh consecutive named storm that never intensified into a hurricane, Gert will break the record for the longest streak of consecutive tropical storms in the Atlantic hurricane database. The old record is held by 2002 with six, and tied currently with this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 in the Atlantic hurricane database And as far as I know, any basin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 If this gets named, we'll be on the "G" storm by the midpoint of August. I know they've all been tropical storms and mostly fish storms, but this is almost a record pace of formation, right? Only year I know of that we're behind would be 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 If this gets named, we'll be on the "G" storm by the midpoint of August. I know they've all been tropical storms and mostly fish storms, but this is almost a record pace of formation, right? Only year I know of that we're behind would be 2005. And 1995 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegreatdr Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 According to wikipedia, the northwest Pacific had a stretch of 7 tropical storms in a row during the 2008 Pacific typhoon season, with no typhoons between September 29 and December 15. =) That appers to be the longest such stretch of tropical storms in a row since 1980 for that basin. And as far as I know, any basin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 According to wikipedia, the northwest Pacific had a stretch of 7 tropical storms in a row during the 2008 Pacific typhoon season, with no typhoons between September 29 and December 15. =) That appers to be the longest such stretch of tropical storms in a row since 1980 for that basin. Ah, thanks, I didn't think to check post-2000 WPAC seasons. It's weird, I almost want to keep the streak going – but I'm probably in the minority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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