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Heavy Rains for the area 8/14-8/17 Discussion/OBS


ptb127

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off and on heavy rains here. a few flashes and bigger rumbles

1/4 inch so far.

although latest GFS...18z...pushes the thump Conn. offshore. we shall see

man the Nam is pushing 6-7+ in the NE PA yikes

Looks like the 18z NAM consolidates the surface low and intensifies it to much near the New Jersey coast, thus it really cranks out the QPF.

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Do you think this is a plausible scenario, or do you think the NAM is out to lunch?

It is possible, but I think it is a bit overdone. It all depends on the amplification of the upper trough that comes into the Mid Atlantic region Sunday.

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0.00" so far. I guess that batch down in Delaware just fell apart? I wasn't home for a while.

This whole set-up makes me reminiscent of 1/26/2011, with the NAM and RGEM having significantly higher QPF totals than the globals, and the 500mb vort closing off right over us as the energy transfers to a developing coastal at the surface. In that instance, the NAM and RGEM verified...I wonder if they will this time?

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FFW out for that area. 2-3 inches of rain already? With the main event not even started yet? Look out.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

FLASH FLOOD WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

956 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...

NORTHEASTERN BERKS COUNTY...

LEHIGH COUNTY...

NORTHAMPTON COUNTY...

* UNTIL 145 AM EDT...

* AT 947 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES

AND RAIN GAGE REPORTS INDICATED BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS

FALLEN OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.

WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN ON THE WAY...FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED OR

ALREADY OCCURRING. ROADWAY FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED...AND

SMALL STREAMS IN THE VICINITY OF HEAVY RAIN WILL EXCEED THEIR

BANKS.

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Yes but compare what was progged in the Lehigh Valley from 18z to 00z on the 00z nam, and then look at the area to west near MDT. WAY OFF. Areas close to here and west have had 1-3 inches of rain whereas the 00z NAM has some of these area barely a trace.

But yes, PHL has the dry slot, but yours will come.

All I know is the my DirecTV here in the LV has had 2 major outages tonight and that usually happens with big storms coming in from the west. Once they are hitting, all things are good. Very intense lightning now..big storm incoming.

NAM says FFW cancel for Metro Philly, through 36hr only 0.75-1.00" as opposed to 1.5-3.00" from the 12Z run

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