ptb127 Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 No topics on this yet but what do you guys think of the heavy rain threat this weekend? http://www.nco.ncep....fs_p60_084m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAPPG Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 When do you believe main threat is? Will it come in quick and leave, or slow down and linger? Unfortunately I have major outdoor plans for sunday eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Another low is going to develop and linger right off the Delmarva coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 add OBS / Discussion to title Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 If the qpf from some of the models verify, I may end up with a 3 day weekend. We're working on the I-476 widening project south of the Lansdale interchange, and if it gets too muddy the Turnpike Commission won't let us run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 My basic thinking is, this is basically a summer Miller B. With an energy transfer, someone gets jackpotted, there's a dryslot, and a sharp cutoff between the two. The 18z GFS jackpots Point Pleasant, NJ or thereabouts with 4.51" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 My basic thinking is, this is basically a summer Miller B. With an energy transfer, someone gets jackpotted, there's a dryslot, and a sharp cutoff between the two. The 18z GFS jackpots Point Pleasant, NJ or thereabouts with 4.51" of rain. 12z euro for pt pleasant is .5 or less.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 what does it paint around these parts? 12z euro for pt pleasant is .5 or less.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 what does it paint around these parts? about 1-1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 12z euro for pt pleasant is .5 or less.... When you average the models (GFS and Euro) and look at the synoptics, it appears the center of max QPF is near and just west of the River. I'm thinking max is near Stroudsburg or NWNJ at around 3". This seems to be somewhat of an orographic lift event, which is why I went to that area for max QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 The 15z SREF really loves NE PA...literally. Look at the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted August 13, 2011 Author Share Posted August 13, 2011 This looks a lot like it's going to be convective in nature.. like training of hvy rains/thunderstorms. Don't know how widespread it will be.. Looking forward to a tombo update after 0z runs are done with QPF #'s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Quick look at the 06Z RGEM paints a 6.9 inch max. just west of Philadelphia the next 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 A pretty clear signal that we're going to get a good bit of rain out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 BEFORE GETTING A BREAK BY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THIS BREAK WOULD NOT BE VERY LONG LASTING AS THE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY, THE LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE MAXIMIZED AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A PORTION OF THE AREA COULD ENTER INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM IF THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT SURGES FAR ENOUGH NORTHWARD. IF THIS HAPPENS, WE COULD BECOME UNSTABLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA, AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BECOME STRONG. THE SPC DOES HAVE A PORTION OF OUR AREA OUTLINED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY, SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. REGARDING THE PRECIPITATION THAT WE ARE EXPECTING, WE STILL HAVE SOME VARIANCE IN THE AMOUNT OF QPF. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE SHIFTED THEIR HIGHER AMOUNTS FURTHER EAST TOWARD THE COAST, WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP THE HIGHER AMOUNTS TO OUR WEST. STILL OVER THE 24 TO 36 HOUR TIME PERIOD FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, WE EXPECT ON AVERAGE ABOUT ONE AND A HALF TO TWO INCHES, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS AND TRAINING EFFECTS. THIS IS BELOW ANY FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE, SO AT THIS POINT WE WILL STILL REFRAIN FROM ANY KIND OF WATCH AND CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IN THE HWO. THE SURFACE LOW AS WELL AS THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE AREA AND ARE LIKELY TO STILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SEVERAL POCKETS OF VORTICITY SWIVELING THROUGH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH, SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT AND HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY, RAINFALL SHOULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND LESS WIDESPREAD MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. Good write up from our friends at Mt.Holly. I'm inclined to say a flash flood watch should be issued. With some of the qpf amounts the models are printing out, the saturated column, and the dynamics at play, it seems likely that someone will see isolated amounts above the 1-2" expected, possibly up to 5"... Always the poor drainage/small creek flooding with this type set up. SPC has us in a day 2 slight risk as well, so i'm still on top of that potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Good write up from our friends at Mt.Holly. I'm inclined to say a flash flood watch should be issued. With some of the qpf amounts the models are printing out, the saturated column, and the dynamics at play, it seems likely that someone will see isolated amounts above the 1-2" expected, possibly up to 5"... Always the poor drainage/small creek flooding with this type set up. The NAM pretty much drops 3-6" of rain over the region...could be overdone and NAM-induced bias but it wouldn't surprise me if some ppl got more than 3 by the time Monday is out. I think they'll pull the trigger on the FFW for Sunday/Sunday night. I'm more "meh" on severe wx threat -- rain is huge player here...could be some downbursts in spots though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 This looks a lot like it's going to be convective in nature.. like training of hvy rains/thunderstorms. Don't know how widespread it will be.. Looking forward to a tombo update after 0z runs are done with QPF #'s 0z euro is wetter east of the river than 12z.. Basically an inch of rain from jersey shore to about vineland...then vineland to about west chester 1-5-1-75...then pocnos lehigh valley rest of chester county, reading on west to mdt 1.75-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Yeah looks like 12z gfs wants to keep the heaviest off to our east. . Pretty much the only model that far east? Last nights sref ensembles really wanted to pound my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 12 gfs is funky looking.. pops a little low off the coast and hits jersey hard with a thin band of .5maxima per 6hr...it also shows showers/unsettled weather into wed. Not sure if it's a feeback issue or whatnot...It's just goofy looking. hr 78: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 This is possibly the most interesting heavy rain event in years, at least down here at the shore. It has been so dry down here with numerous bust events since May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 12z sref mean for total precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott W Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Here it comes, a bit early. So much for my round of golf this afternoon at Downingtown CC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Here it comes, a bit early. So much for my round of golf this afternoon at Downingtown CC! Seems like it's coming a lot early, at least for some areas. I should be able to mow the crabgrass before it starts here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 I think I would move if I received another 6 inches of rain from one event. I'm my basement floods again, I might just snap. Everyone else who needs the rain, I hope you get some...a lot of areas are really dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Flood Watch http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=PAZ070&warncounty=PAC045&firewxzone=PAZ070&local_place1=Brookhaven+PA&product1=Flood+Watch FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 310 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011 DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ001-007>010-012-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071- 140315- /O.NEW.KPHI.FA.A.0010.110813T2200Z-110815T1000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NEW CASTLE-CECIL-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET- MIDDLESEX-MERCER-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER- MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...NEWTON... WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE... NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING... ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN... DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA 310 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WATCH FOR THE PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES OF CARBON, MONROE, NORTHAMPTON, LEHIGH, BERKS, BUCKS, MONTGOMERY, CHESTER, DELAWARE AND PHILADELPHIA, THE NEW JERSEY COUNTIES OF SUSSEX, WARREN, MORRIS, HUNTERDON, SOMERSET, MIDDLESEX AND MERCER, FOR NEW CASTLE COUNTY IN DELAWARE AND FOR CECIL COUNTY IN MARYLAND. * THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT * A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN MUCH OF THE REGION WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. * THE FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RESULT IN FLOODING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. BE SURE TO CHECK FOR UPDATED FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. IF YOU LIVE IN AN AREA THAT IS PRONE TO FLOODING, BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF FLOODING DEVELOPS. && $$ IOVINO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 We've got thunder, lightning and very heavy rain here in Middletown, DE. I haven't seen such a prolonged period of dark clouds and heavy rain with lightning in a very long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 18z NAM has a retrograding Low and drops the bomb on us 5-6" north of the PATPK and east of the NE extension, 3-5" elsewehere. Maximum is in the 6-7" shading in north Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 18z NAM through 42hrs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 60hr totals through 66... Also, the h5 low becomes closed off on the 18z nam between hours 57 and 66..Hence, the copious amounts of rain... up to 7" through 72hrs... and still raining... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 glad i cut the grass today. its gonna take a while to dry out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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