blizzardof09 Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 430 this morning I've seen the most intense thunder and lightning it was incredible. The rain is gonna be absolutely drenching today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 I shouldn't be so quick to say that something like October 2005 wont happen again in our lifetimes-- we've obviously seen an uptick of big events in the last few years, so it's entirely possible we'll live to see some of those October 2005 records broken..... perhaps even in the not to distant future. I've mentioned a coujple of times that I consider the 3 days in October 2005 the most remarkable weather event I've seen out here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 My memory is shot...I can't even remember the time of day the storm you mention started....lol....though i distinctly recall the 2/11/1983 blizzard starting at 1:00 PM Friday afternoon.... Yep, that's one of my all time favorites-- the first truly big one I can remember and the only one for the next 13 years until January 1996 came along. January 26-27, 2011 was the one where we were supposedly going to start out as rain and have to wait for a changeover because the NAO was positive.... but it came in early, started as snow and stayed snow and fell heavily, changed to a mixture in the afternoon when the precip was light and came back with a BOOM in the early evening with thundersleet and even a rotating signature on the radar just south of Long Island along with hail (real hail mixed in with the sleet lol) and changed over to heavy snow by 10 PM.... I believe Islip recorded 5 inches of snow in one hour! and we all finished with over a foot of snow, with some places close to 20"-- almost the equal of the post Xmas Blizzard. I wonder if you measured over 3 feet of snow in Jan 2011 because you already had 20" from the storm on 1/11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 I've mentioned a coujple of times that I consider the 3 days in October 2005 the most remarkable weather event I've seen out here... Very memorable for me too and great timing because I had just gotten my wx station for my birthday that year (my present to myself lol)-- on Sept. 15 so it got a workout right away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Yep, that's one of my all time favorites-- the first truly big one I can remember and the only one for the next 13 years until January 1996 came along. January 26-27, 2011 was the one where we were supposedly going to start out as rain and have to wait for a changeover because the NAO was positive.... but it came in early, started as snow and stayed snow and fell heavily, changed to a mixture in the afternoon when the precip was light and came back with a BOOM in the early evening with thundersleet and even a rotating signature on the radar just south of Long Island along with hail (real hail mixed in with the sleet lol) and changed over to heavy snow by 10 PM.... I believe Islip recorded 5 inches of snow in one hour! and we all finished with over a foot of snow, with some places close to 20"-- almost the equal of the post Xmas Blizzard. I wonder if you measured over 3 feet of snow in Jan 2011 because you already had 20" from the storm on 1/11. And there were still massive weenie suicides that evening of the 26th because initially it appeared the 2nd round may be more south hitting PHL and C-S NJ but it eventually kicked northeast. That event was notorious for the short term high res models predicting the evolution of that 2nd round so well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Yep, that's one of my all time favorites-- the first truly big one I can remember and the only one for the next 13 years until January 1996 came along. January 26-27, 2011 was the one where we were supposedly going to start out as rain and have to wait for a changeover because the NAO was positive.... but it came in early, started as snow and stayed snow and fell heavily, changed to a mixture in the afternoon when the precip was light and came back with a BOOM in the early evening with thundersleet and even a rotating signature on the radar just south of Long Island along with hail (real hail mixed in with the sleet lol) and changed over to heavy snow by 10 PM.... I believe Islip recorded 5 inches of snow in one hour! and we all finished with over a foot of snow, with some places close to 20"-- almost the equal of the post Xmas Blizzard. I wonder if you measured over 3 feet of snow in Jan 2011 because you already had 20" from the storm on 1/11. Measured 41.7" of snow out here in January 2011...easily the snowiest month since I moved here...probably will need to go through some of those 70 page + archived threads from last winter to brush up on how that storm went down...though my records show 14" out here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Measured 41.7" of snow out here in January 2011...easily the snowiest month since I moved here...probably will need to go through some of those 70 page + archived threads from last winter to brush up on how that storm went down...though my records show 14" out here... that would be the one..... and it was your second biggest snowstorm that month, because 1/11 was 20" ... you must have had an amazing snow pack by the end of the month! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Rainfall through 8AM: NYC 3.20 LGA 3.88 JFK 5.61 TEB 1.17 EWR 3.27 HPN 0.95 CDW 1.20 FRG 3.65 ISP 1.48 BLM 1.81 SMQ 2.64 DXR 0.41 BDR 0.98 12N 2.09 FWN 0.67 HWV 0.84 MGJ 0.41 NEL 0.70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 And there were still massive weenie suicides that evening of the 26th because initially it appeared the 2nd round may be more south hitting PHL and C-S NJ but it eventually kicked northeast. That event was notorious for the short term high res models predicting the evolution of that 2nd round so well. SG, I remember you called the changeover back to snow correctly, from the night before, because you said it would occur sometime around 10 PM..... the thing that amazed all of us was the intensity of it, we basically accumulated that foot plus of snow in 3-4 hours before the storm pulled out (not including the few inches we got that morning.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 that would be the one..... and it was your second biggest snowstorm that month, because 1/11 was 20" ... you must have had an amazing snow pack by the end of the month! I've said a couple of times that perhaps except for February 1934, January 2011 is likely the best winter month out here since 1900... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Rainfall through 8AM: NYC 3.20 LGA 3.88 JFK 5.61 TEB 1.17 EWR 3.27 HPN 0.95 CDW 1.20 FRG 3.65 ISP 1.48 BLM 1.81 SMQ 2.64 DXR 0.41 BDR 0.98 12N 2.09 FWN 0.67 HWV 0.84 MGJ 0.41 NEL 0.70 JFK leading the pack for a change I have 5.3" so it's very close.... and we got 2.8" in one hour-- Ray, can you check and see what the most amount of rain JFK has gotten in one hour is? I'm pretty sure that 11+" figure that William posted from Oct 15, 2005 was their 24 hr record but I'm not sure what their one hour rainfall record is lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 3.60" so far for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 I've said a couple of times that perhaps except for February 1934, January 2011 is likely the best winter month out here since 1900... The only thing that might compare is that mysterious norlun month Ed mentioned-- what was it, December 1909? The month where parts of Eastern LI saw over 40" of snow? Close to 50" at Bridgehampton or Cutchogue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Wow. 3".25" to 5.75" of rain for NYC area already? That's unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 The only thing that might compare is that mysterious norlun month Ed mentioned-- what was it, December 1909? The month where parts of Eastern LI saw over 40" of snow? Close to 50" at Bridgehampton or Cutchogue? Yep...that one comes to mind...though it was December 1904...but I do think the heaviest axis of snow was right over the Twin Forks...I recall Cold Spring Harbor being around 30" to 35"..and even less in the city...and it likely was not as cold as February '34 or January 2011...an element which I did factor into my decision.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Yep...that one comes to mind...but I do think the heaviest axis of snow was right over the Twin Forks...I recall Cold Spring Harbor being around 30" to 35"..and even less in the city...and it likely was not as cold as February '34 or January 2011...an element which I did factor into my decision.... Yes, and I think from this area out to EWR there was something like 25-28" of snow.... so not nearly as much. That would suck to see the Twin Forks with so much snow and everyone else half of that lol. For you, I would put January 2011 first because I believe the two biggest storms were bigger..... for this area I would put Feb 1934 first because there was only 6-9" of snow on 1/11 We've also got to mention February 2003 and February 2010-- I think February 2003 comes out as #1 for here and February 2010 is #1 for NYC. If we hadn't gotten shaved by 2/6/10 February 2010 might have been #1 for everyone..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Yes, and I think from this area out to EWR there was something like 25-28" of snow.... so not nearly as much. That would suck to see the Twin Forks with so much snow and everyone else half of that lol. For you, I would put January 2011 first because I believe the two biggest storms were bigger..... for this area I would put Feb 1934 first because there was only 6-9" of snow on 1/11 December 1904 snowfall: New York Keene Valley 5.5" Saranac 7.2" Adams 15.5" Lowville 25.8" Binghamton 10.9" Albany 12.5" Middletown 21.1" Scarsdale 33.0" NYC (Central Park) 21.6" NYC Weather Bureau (lower Manhattan) 26.8" Cold Spring Harbor 33.2" Cutchogue 49.0" (40" snow depth on 12/18, 26" snow depth on 12/25, 10 consecutive days w/29 - 40" on ground 12/13-22) Southampton 57.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 December 1904 snowfall: New York Keene Valley 5.5" Saranac 7.2" Adams 15.5" Lowville 25.8" Binghamton 10.9" Albany 12.5" Middletown 21.1" Scarsdale 33.0" NYC (Central Park) 21.6" NYC Weather Bureau (lower Manhattan) 26.8" Cold Spring Harbor 33.2" Cutchogue 49.0" (40" snow depth on 12/18, 26" snow depth on 12/25, 10 consecutive days w/29 - 40" on ground 12/13-22) Southampton 57.4" Wow, I guess that winter is the reason why some people think Albany is in a snowhole LOL 12.5"? 7.2" in Saranac.... even more surprising. That must have been one cold dry month up there..... that almost reminds me of Feb 2010..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Yes, and I think from this area out to EWR there was something like 25-28" of snow.... so not nearly as much. That would suck to see the Twin Forks with so much snow and everyone else half of that lol. For you, I would put January 2011 first because I believe the two biggest storms were bigger..... for this area I would put Feb 1934 first because there was only 6-9" of snow on 1/11 We've also got to mention February 2003 and February 2010-- I think February 2003 comes out as #1 for here and February 2010 is #1 for NYC. If we hadn't gotten shaved by 2/6/10 February 2010 might have been #1 for everyone..... February '34 had 37.6" of snow in nearby Setauket...including 3 storms of 8"+ including an 18.1" event from the 19th to the 20th...and it was the coldest month on file... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Wow. 3".25" to 5.75" of rain for NYC area already? That's unbelievable. How are your streets doing down there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Not much of an AFD, but what an event going on down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 February '34 had 37.6" of snow in nearby Setauket...including 3 storms of 8"+ including an 18.1" event from the 19th to the 20th...and it was the coldest month on file... Well that combo of cold + snow definitely takes the cake...I bet they had a long duration snow cover too, maybe even moreso than this past winter? If NYC was -15, there must have been some -20s on Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Not much of an AFD, but what an event going on down there. Yeah, William and I were comparing it to October 2005 lol. The funny thing is, it's just the beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 The heaviest daily rainfall that I was able to find for JFK was 6.27 inches back on 6/30/84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Yeah, William and I were comparing it to October 2005 lol. The funny thing is, it's just the beginning. There is a little weak vortmax or perhaps wave or something coming up from Belmar area. That will give another dumping. We'll have to watch the convection to the south of LI, because that might mess around with the heavy rain processes to the north. However, if that moves north and stalls. Watch out. Summer time rain events are always tough to figure out because they are all driven by convergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 How are your streets doing down there? Im not outside yet. They should be ok. I'm sure the usual places like the GCP by Linden Place and the Cross Island are flooded out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 The heaviest daily rainfall that I was able to find for JFK was 6.27 inches back on 6/30/84. You missed October 2005-- was that 11"+ total a daily total? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 There is a little weak vortmax or perhaps wave or something coming up from Belmar area. That will give another dumping. We'll have to watch the convection to the south of LI, because that might mess around with the heavy rain processes to the north. However, if that moves north and stalls. Watch out. Summer time rain events are always tough to figure out because they are all driven by convergence. I added up these figures twice and it came out to 7.41" It has to be off lol http://classic.wunderground.com/history/airport/KJFK/2011/8/14/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA 12:51 AM 75.0 °F 64.0 °F 69% 29.99 in 10.0 miles SSW 5.8 mph - N/A Overcast 1:51 AM 75.0 °F 64.9 °F 71% 29.97 in 8.0 miles SSW 4.6 mph - 0.00 in Rain Light Rain 2:10 AM 73.4 °F 66.2 °F 78% 29.96 in 4.0 miles SSW 10.4 mph - 0.06 in Rain , Thunderstorm Thunderstorms and Rain 2:28 AM 71.6 °F 68.0 °F 88% 29.97 in 3.0 miles SW 11.5 mph - 0.13 in Rain , Thunderstorm Heavy Thunderstorms and Rain 2:47 AM 69.8 °F 68.0 °F 94% 29.94 in 2.0 miles Calm Calm - 0.39 in Rain , Thunderstorm Heavy Thunderstorms and Rain 2:51 AM 70.0 °F 66.9 °F 90% 29.94 in 5.0 miles North 3.5 mph - 0.42 in Rain , Thunderstorm Thunderstorms and Rain 3:30 AM 71.6 °F 66.2 °F 83% 29.93 in 2.0 miles NE 9.2 mph - 0.02 in Rain , Thunderstorm Heavy Thunderstorms and Rain 3:36 AM 71.6 °F 66.2 °F 83% 29.91 in 1.0 miles NNE 16.1 mph - 0.02 in Rain , Thunderstorm Heavy Thunderstorms and Rain 3:51 AM 71.1 °F 66.9 °F 87% 29.91 in 1.0 miles WNW 11.5 mph 20.7 mph 0.23 in Rain , Thunderstorm Heavy Thunderstorms and Rain 4:51 AM 69.1 °F 66.9 °F 93% 29.91 in 2.0 miles West 4.6 mph - 2.83 in Rain , Thunderstorm Heavy Thunderstorms and Rain 5:51 AM 70.0 °F 66.9 °F 90% 29.93 in 2.0 miles North 4.6 mph - 0.56 in Rain , Thunderstorm Heavy Thunderstorms and Rain 6:44 AM 69.8 °F 66.2 °F 88% 29.94 in 2.0 miles Calm Calm - 0.84 in Rain Heavy Rain 6:51 AM 69.1 °F 66.9 °F 93% 29.94 in 2.0 miles Calm Calm - 0.87 in Rain Heavy Rain 6:56 AM 69.8 °F 66.2 °F 88% 29.93 in 1.8 miles Calm Calm - 0.04 in Rain Heavy Rain 7:51 AM 70.0 °F 66.9 °F 90% 29.93 in 3.0 miles ESE 6.9 mph - 0.70 in Rain Rain 8:23 AM 69.8 °F 66.2 °F 88% 29.92 in 5.0 miles ESE 5.8 mph - 0.11 in Rain Rain 8:51 AM 69.1 °F 66.9 °F 93% 29.91 in 4.0 miles East 10.4 mph - 0.19 in Rain Heavy Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Another round of heavy rain headed up from Sandy Hook. JFK should be over 6" within the next hour and LGA well over 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Another round of heavy rain headed up from Sandy Hook. JFK should be over 6" within the next hour and LGA well over 4". easily. So much for the N&W bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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