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Heavy rain event 8/14-8/15 discussion/obs


ptb127

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I'm still not particularly sold on this rain event especially for east of the City. There does seem to be a broader rain shield that develops on most models that sweeps most people but if this is the kind of convective/daytime heating kind of event we're seeing today, it's hard for me to see coastal areas getting hit that hard, at least compared to NJ. I'd wager a lot that the usual suspects in north or central NJ run away with this event. Hopefully tomorrow and Monday I'm proven wrong.

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I'm still not particularly sold on this rain event especially for east of the City. There does seem to be a broader rain shield that develops on most models that sweeps most people but if this is the kind of convective/daytime heating kind of event we're seeing today, it's hard for me to see coastal areas getting hit that hard, at least compared to NJ. I'd wager a lot that the usual suspects in north or central NJ run away with this event. Hopefully tomorrow and Monday I'm proven wrong.

Im hoping for a noreaster kind of event :P

Correct me if Im wrong but didnt we see a big noreaster in August 1993 (and early August, I think) which actually brought snow to Mt Washington. Not saying we're going to get that, but it's illustrative how quick the turnaround can be. We got about 5-6 inches of rain from that.

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Im hoping for a noreaster kind of event <img src='http://208.71.34.143/public/style_emoticons/default/tongue.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':P' />Correct me if Im wrong but didnt we see a big noreaster in August 1993 (and early August, I think) which actually brought snow to Mt Washington.  Not saying we're going to get that, but it's illustrative how quick the turnaround can be.  We got about 5-6 inches of rain from that.

AUG 1994 was that storm.I got 4.5 of rain from that.

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Still 0.00 rainfall here, why are these storms moving so slowly?  Oh well, I like day time rain anyway <img src='http://208.71.34.143/public/style_emoticons/default/wink.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=';)' />

classic warm frontal thunderstorms which are usually heavy for us.JUst be patient,they are coming.

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GFS is quite adamant about having the heaviest rain be from the city east and into New England over the next 2 days. It'll be curious to see what wins over-the typical tendency of these storms to develop/train over NJ, or if a mechanism can develop to train these further east like many models suggest. Either way, somebody is in for a lot of flooding, as these storms won't move where they do develop for probably many hours. But it's hard for major synoptic scale rain events to happen this deep into the summer, so I think there will definitely be some holes where people get jipped.

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GFS is quite adamant about having the heaviest rain be from the city east and into New England over the next 2 days. It'll be curious to see what wins over-the typical tendency of these storms to develop/train over NJ, or if a mechanism can develop to train these further east like many models suggest. Either way, somebody is in for a lot of flooding, as these storms won't move where they do develop for probably many hours. But it's hard for major synoptic scale rain events to happen this deep into the summer, so I think there will definitely be some holes where people get jipped.

These storms coming towards NYC right now have the most intense rainfall we will see for this event.

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