SACRUS Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 12z NAM is 1"-2" across the board with heavier amounts of 2"-4" in western Jersey. Starts early tomorrow morning and right through Monday. Luckily I flew back today. Looks like a soggy couple of days sunday and monday. It has certainly taken a much wetter turn as has been a constant case of late when things seemingly go dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Fall feel today. Has the look too as some trees are starting to die out/turn from the summer heat. Love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Guidance converging on a good soaker across the region. that's a big jump from last night's runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 The SPC WRF has storms in here by tomorrow morning and has significant convection after that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 I have not been below 80 since July 3rd.I am looking forward to the clouds and the rain.Nobody should be complaining.I believe in the past 2 summers only 4 weekend days were washouts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 I have not been below 80 since July 3rd.I am looking forward to the clouds and the rain.Nobody should be complaining.I believe in the past 2 summers only 4 weekend days were washouts. Save the rain for the fall, who wants an all day soaker in the summer, especially on a weekend. Plenty wet of late too. Here's to a miracle of it being less than forecast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted August 13, 2011 Author Share Posted August 13, 2011 How do you convert the Canadian model QPF? Looks like a soaker down here in NE PA too. We are actually a few inches above normal for the year.. had a very wet spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 How do you convert the Canadian model QPF? Looks like a soaker down here in NE PA too. We are actually a few inches above normal for the year.. had a very wet spring 1" = 25;5 mm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 12Z RGEM Total Rain 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 The SPC WRF has storms in here by tomorrow morning and has significant convection after that as well. Do you got a link.. i lost my bookmark on it. TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Do you got a link.. i lost my bookmark on it. TIA http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/conus/12/ http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/conus/00/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 18Z NAM prints out a tremendous amount of rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWarning Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 18Z NAM prints out a tremendous amount of rainfall. OMG I just saw it. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_p60_060m.gif 5-7" bullseye over the Delaware River from Souther PA, NJ border to New York State border. Could be a very bad situation if this played out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 18Z NAM prints out a tremendous amount of rainfall. yeah, it closes off the h5 low between 54 and 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 yeah, it closes off the h5 low between 54 and 66 Euro looks like 2 - 3 widespread maybe more. Awful - seems like any dry pattern is ended with a deluge, typical of late. Should have stayed in Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 So none of that long island dry slot some were worrying about? As long as it moves west to east (or even southwest or northeast) we should all be in for some flooding rains! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Of course i wouldnt want anyone to get harmed with flooding rains but i like long rain events every once in a while but 5-7" of rain is nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 wow 12z euro is very wet for the area....sunday and monday washouts.......3-4 inches for the metro area..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Nice. 3"+ for all of us! Bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Nice. 3"+ QPF as all snow for all of us! Bring it! What you'll hopefully be typing in December, January and February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Nice. 3"+ for all of us! Bring it! wacka-doo . save it for fall. Interesting how this is prolonged into Tue morning, could be talking some bad flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 wacka-doo . save it for fall. Interesting how this is prolonged into Tue morning, could be talking some bad flooding. I would too, but rarely do we see three straight months of summerlike weather-- usually it's either June or August that's a washout lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Like a snowstorm, as we get closer, the bullseye keeps shifting more and more NE. By tonight's 0z, I hope NYC is in the 4"-6" bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 I would too, but rarely do we see three straight months of summerlike weather-- usually it's either June or August that's a washout lol. June was pretty much average. With 2-3 shots of heat. All stations finished only +1 to +2. August will probably finish similar or even lower. I guessed -.5 to + 1, before month started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 I would too, but rarely do we see three straight months of summerlike weather-- usually it's either June or August that's a washout lol. Just wishful thinking, id be more pleased with a few hours of tstorms. We did luck out most of last weekend and we had been dry, so we're do for the usual 3 - 6 inch rain event and it will be interesting to track. I just cant see rooting for it in the middle of August, on a weekend. Still think we could get back to and above normal by the end of this week/next weekend and maybemore so the week of the 22nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Mt. Holly finally posted flood watches for eastern PA and parts of central and NW NJ for two to three inches with locally higher amounts possible. Not surprised to see this at all, especially after the incredible 18z NAM run (although keep in mind that the 18z NAM has been known to overdo QPF right before events in the past). Taken verbatim though it would be 6-7 inches of rain for my area, which would likely cause some pretty severe flooding. Wouldn't be surprised to see Upton follow suit later tonight with the flood watches. I, for one, and definitely looking forward to this rain event. The weather has been far too boring around here recently, and I always enjoy a good soaking rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 June was pretty much average. With 2-3 shots of heat. All stations finished only +1 to +2. August will probably finish similar or even lower. I guessed -.5 to + 1, before month started. I think we were +3.3 for June out this way-- weird, how much variance we had this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Mt. Holly finally posted flood watches for eastern PA and parts of central and NW NJ for two to three inches with locally higher amounts possible. Not surprised to see this at all, especially after the incredible 18z NAM run (although keep in mind that the 18z NAM has been known to overdo QPF right before events in the past). Taken verbatim though it would be 6-7 inches of rain for my area, which would likely cause some pretty severe flooding. Wouldn't be surprised to see Upton follow suit later tonight with the flood watches. I, for one, and definitely looking forward to this rain event. The weather has been far too boring around here recently, and I always enjoy a good soaking rainstorm. Soaking rainstorms are much more fun than thunderstorms with small coverage and dont last very long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Mt. Holly finally posted flood watches for eastern PA and parts of central and NW NJ for two to three inches with locally higher amounts possible. Not surprised to see this at all, especially after the incredible 18z NAM run (although keep in mind that the 18z NAM has been known to overdo QPF right before events in the past). Taken verbatim though it would be 6-7 inches of rain for my area, which would likely cause some pretty severe flooding. Wouldn't be surprised to see Upton follow suit later tonight with the flood watches. I, for one, and definitely looking forward to this rain event. The weather has been far too boring around here recently, and I always enjoy a good soaking rainstorm. If the past is any indicator, look for Upton to pull the trigger for Flood Watches sometime early Monday morning and/or after several inches of rain have already fallen. Jk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 sheesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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