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Heavy rain event 8/14-8/15 discussion/obs


ptb127

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There is still so much activity down towards southeat PA and the Delmarva region I really don't see how the city and points west dont get clobbered.

Thankfully we received some of the lowest amounts in the region and the majority of the rain is now over. Good news for our rivers in this area, means we avoid some serious flooding.

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I decided to do some investigating as to how historic this event was. Assuming I am interpreting these tables correctly (and someone please correct me if I am doing so incorrectly), it seems Newark Airport's 24-hour rainfall total of ~6.5" is approximately a once in 25 year event (90% confidence interval = 5.69 - 6.72 inches).

http://hdsc.nws.noaa...t.html?bkmrk=nj

I tried to investigate for NY but the data isn't updated yet - the latest charts are from the early '60s.

Looks like down south, Malaga, NJ had a 1 in 100 year event today with their 8.53" and Elmer, NJ had approximately a 1 in 150 year event.

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I decided to do some investigating as to how historic this event was. Assuming I am interpreting these tables correctly (and someone please correct me if I am doing so incorrectly), it seems Newark Airport's 24-hour rainfall total of ~6.5" is approximately a once in 25 year event (90% confidence interval = 5.69 - 6.72 inches).

http://hdsc.nws.noaa...t.html?bkmrk=nj

I tried to investigate for NY but the data isn't updated yet - the latest charts are from the early '60s.

Looks like down south, Malaga, NJ had a 1 in 100 year event today with their 8.53" and Elmer, NJ had approximately a 1 in 150 year event.

Wow..cool site. Never seen that before.

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take a look at the radar down by Baltimore, this is far from over

Just some energy associated with the ULL. I would expect the majority of rain is over with, especially for your area. Maybe a few more brief periods of rain, but nothing major. Most of that energy should fizzle out as the low departs the area.

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Commute tomorrow AM looking messy. LIRR shut down still on the Long Beach and Far Rockaway branches.

So that explains why I haven't seen or heard any trains whatsoever.

It just intensely poured but it looks to have stopped. It's just been torrential rain for almost 24 hours straight. I haven't seen anything like this since Hurricane Dennis (2005 in FL) and that pseudo tropical storm in Spring 2010, however this event blows the latter two out of the water (no pun intended) in terms of rainfall and duration, the other two storms had a lot of visual damage whereas this one doesn't.

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So that explains why I haven't seen or heard any trains whatsoever.

It just intensely poured but it looks to have stopped. It's just been torrential rain for almost 24 hours straight. I haven't seen anything like this since Hurricane Dennis (2005 in FL) and that pseudo tropical storm in Spring 2010, however this event blows the latter two out of the water (no pun intended) in terms of rainfall and duration, the other two storms had a lot of visual damage whereas this one doesn't.

I missed October 2005's rain event here, but this has to be worse-because today's 10+ inches of rain here around Long Beach/Lido fell in mainly a 12 hour period. 2005's fell over several days. The ground is literally just sopping wet-we're lucky we had little wind with this because otherwise trees would be crashing down all over the place. It was like the Floodapocalypse around here especially early-mid morning. I don't think I've ever seen the intensity and longevity of those thunderstorms we had around 4-5am either. Rain came down tremendously hard, and for HOURS. It's something you maybe see in Texas or Florida every few years. Not much that's even tropical dumps this much rain this far north.

In terms of "visual impact", I definitely agree there also. Roads weren't bad across much of Long Beach (Island Park was very different) by noon or so, but basements all over town were inundated. Again, we're very lucky this didn't come with much wind. March 2010's storm was much the opposite-very high winds at 75-80 mph, but showery rain during the worst of it, and tree/house damage was worse.

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Commute tomorrow AM looking messy. LIRR shut down still on the Long Beach and Far Rockaway branches.

Yup and many of the roads flooded out. I'm 5 minutes away from that Lynbrook road that they keep showing on TWC. I want the next batch of heavy rain to get here-- if it's going to rain like this, might as well get over a foot lol.

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we are getting into historic rainfall territory...NYC should end up with over 5" today...Here are the wettest days on record...

8.28" on 9/23/1882. 11.83" from 9/21-23.

7.57" on 4/15/2007.

7.40" on 11/8/1977. 9.19" from 11/7-8.

7.33" on 10/9/1903. 11.80" from 10/8-10.

5.60" on 11/8/1972.

5.54" on 9/21/1966.

5.02" on 9/16/1999.

4.98" on 10/1/1913.

What happened in 1882? Tropical system? Didn't NYC have an 11 inch rainfall total somewhere from the early 1900s at The Battery?

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I pulled out my personal totals for October 2005:

15.29" of rain for the month

Daily rain totals

0.10 in. (2.5 mm) on day 7

1.66 in. (41.5 mm) on day 8

0.01 in. (0.3 mm) on day 9

0.18 in. (4.5 mm) on day 10

0.28 in. (7.0 mm) on day 11

3.89 in. (97.3 mm) on day 12

1.85 in. (46.3 mm) on day 13

5.19 in. (129.8 mm) on day 14

0.01 in. (0.3 mm) on day 15

0.01 in. (0.3 mm) on day 18

0.01 in. (0.3 mm) on day 21

0.73 in. (18.3 mm) on day 22

0.55 in. (13.8 mm) on day 24

0.79 in. (19.8 mm) on day 25

0.02 in. (0.5 mm) on day 26

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So far this month (closing in on 9 inches of rain) plus site records:

Averages\Extremes for the month of August to 14 2011

---------------------------------------------------

Average temperature 76.5 °F (24.7 °C)

Average humidity 67 %

Average dewpoint 63.7 °F (17.6 °C)

Average barometer 29.790 in.

Average windspeed 3.4 mph

Average gustspeed 6.1 mph

Average direction 216 ° ( SW)

Rainfall for month 8.810 in. (220 mm)

Rainfall for year 32.900 in. (822 mm)

-----------------------------------------------------------

Maximum rain per minute 0.160 in. ( 4 mm) on day 14 at time 04:13

Maximum temperature 91.4 °F (33.0 °C) on day 08 at time 16:42

Minimum temperature 59.8 °F (15.4 °C) on day 12 at time 06:35

Maximum humidity 93 % on day 14 at time 20:51

Minimum humidity 24 % on day 02 at time 15:02

Minimum pressure 29.481 in. on day 08 at time 03:22

Maximum pressure 30.082 in. on day 05 at time 11:08

Maximum windspeed 20.0 mph from 323 on day 08 at time 16:59

Maximum gust speed 32.0 mph from 312 on day 08 at time 17:00

Maximum heat index 96.8 °F (36.0 °C)on day 07 at time 13:36

Growing degrees days : 398.1 °F

------------------------------------------------------------

Daily rain totals

0.36 in. (9.0 mm) on day 3

0.01 in. (0.3 mm) on day 4

0.03 in. (0.7 mm) on day 6

0.29 in. (7.2 mm) on day 7

0.01 in. (0.3 mm) on day 8

0.47 in. (11.7 mm) on day 9

7.63 in. (190.7 mm) on day 14

------------------------------------------------------------

Record high temperature:102.6 °F at: 14:25 on: Jul 22 2011

Record low temperature:6.1 °F at: 04:36 on: Jan 22 2005

Record high wind gust:56.0 mph at: 19:53 on: Mar 13 2010

Record high average speed:41.4 mph at: 15:50 on: Mar 13 2010

Record high rain rate:0.830 in/min at: 06:06 on: Aug 14 2011

Record low barometer:28.579 in at: 06:08 on: Apr 16 2007

Record high barometer:30.803 in at: 10:29 on: Jan 28 2005

Record dailyrain:7.630 in at: 22:15 on: Aug 14 2011

Record rain in 1 hour:2.680 in at: 05:03 on: Aug 14 2011

Record low wind chill :-12.6 °F at: 04:36 on: Jan 22 2005

Warmest day on record 94.1 °F at: 18:59 on: Jul 22 2011

Coldest night on record 9.9 °F at: 06:00 on: Jan 24 2005

Coldest day on record 13.6 °F at: 18:00 on: Jan 27 2005

Warmest night on record 88.5 °F at: 06:00 on: Aug 02 2006

Warmest August temperature: 91.4 °F 2011

Coldest August temperature: 59.7 °F 2011

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I got 8.25 inches of rain total for the 14th. as I got into the heavy downpours between 7 and 11PM.There was once again torrential rainfall with a couple of those cells.This was the single greatest rainstorm I have ever experienced for any single day.I have had over 13 inches of rain since the heat wave.

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Easily the heaviest one day rainfall totals that I have seen here on the South Shore.

...NASSAU COUNTY... LIDO BEACH 10.87 625 PM 8/14 SKYWARN SPOTTER WANTAGH 10.08 725 PM 8/14 SKYWARN SPOTTER BELLMORE 9.07 520 PM 8/14 SKYWARN SPOTTEER

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