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Heavy rain event 8/14-8/15 discussion/obs


ptb127

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The rain shield is starting to pivot more to the North.North and west will be the focus of the steadier heavier rains and should start to play catchup as the afternoon progresses.

Well that was not a good call now was that?

7.04 here and still adding up.The DOT cleaned out a lot of sewers in the area during the spring and it shows.WHile there is flooding in the usual spots and was big flooding during the most intense rainfall earlier this morning,the flooding is not as bad as one would think with 7 inches of rain.

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why did the models didn't see this situation.. they all said 2-3...inches..and some places like my house has seen more than 7..

also..should i expect more tonight? im in hudson country (one block from hudson river lol) / NJ

No model was able to forecast this perfectly. When you are dealing with a convective event, it will outdo the models a lot of times. And some models, like the NAM, showed this for 2 days prior.

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No model was able to forecast this perfectly. When you are dealing with a convective event, it will outdo the models a lot of times. And some models, like the NAM, showed this for 2 days prior.

It will never get the QPF right, but it's one of those things where situational awareness comes into play. Sometimes you can double the QPF that a meso model like the NAM, shows

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Or in the winter, cut it in half!

LOL, well yeah...sometimes.

It just depends on the circumstance. For instance in the winter when the models showing over an inch of QPF with 850-800mb temps near 0 the whole time, and the 700 low going over BGM probably means cutting QPF in half, dryslot approaching within hours, and then ending as IP/RA....lol.

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Basements are still in bad shape here in Long Beach, a lot of pumping still going on. Almost everyone I know who has a basement or sloped garage sustained some kind of flooding damage today. In Island Park, some areas had water so high that it went into homes themselves. Numerous road closures also.

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my 4" rain guage was always more than my 8" rainwise tipping guage...sometimes as much as 10% more......

The heavier that the rain is falling, the more that is missed when one bucket tips and the other is moving into the catch position. Little difference during light rain, but greater and greater as intensity increases.

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