gkrangers Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Nasty stuff headed for Monmouth and Ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 The radar appearance is basically the worst case scenario. All the heavy stuff looks like it's headed right for the areas that have been getting pummeled (NYC and east). Won't be surprised with another 3"-6" of rain for NYC and vicinity. Currently, heavy rain again in Astoria. Approaching 6" for sure now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Other nearby PWS ... Bellmore, NY 8.85 inches South Freeport, NY 8.32 inches East Farmingdale, NY 8.54 inches Long Beach, NY 8.20 inches We really might be approaching October 2005 totals before this thing is done with us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 The radar appearance is basically the worst case scenario. All the heavy stuff looks like it's headed right for the areas that have been getting pummeled (NYC and east). Won't be surprised with another 3"-6" of rain for NYC and vicinity. Currently, heavy rain again in Astoria. Approaching 6" for sure now. Ha no model predicted anything like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ict1523 Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 The rain is unrelenting. Even when it lightens up its still steady. Im surprised flooding is not worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Ha no model predicted anything like this. SPC WRF and NAM had 6"-8" around NYC. So they were fairly accurate. The 10"+ amounts are astounding though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 People were asking motorists not to drive past their houses here since the waves were pouring down their downward sloping driveways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 At least the rivers are not expected to reach flood stage as of now but they've risen rapidly in the past 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 The radar appearance is basically the worst case scenario. All the heavy stuff looks like it's headed right for the areas that have been getting pummeled (NYC and east). Won't be surprised with another 3"-6" of rain for NYC and vicinity. Currently, heavy rain again in Astoria. Approaching 6" for sure now. It looks to be pivoting slightly more northerly and move more towards northern NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 At least the rivers are not expected to reach flood stage as of now but they've risen rapidly in the past 12 hours. Be glad this rain hit the more sandy soils with small river basins, instead of the Raritan or Passaic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 It looks to be pivoting slightly more northerly and move more towards northern NJ i dont see that at all yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Be glad this rain hit the more sandy soils with small river basins, instead of the Raritan or Passaic. There not out of the woods by any means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 There not out of the woods by any means I think they are..in terms of not getting 8-12" of rain like further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 RA 68.1/68 2.62" total precipitation Rainfall has not been extreme in Dobbs Ferry, but we're still heading towards a mess tonight for my delivery shift with the heaviest rains spreading into the area from the SW. I imagine we'll have a good chance of surpassing 6" when this event has wound down, just insane here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Yellow and some orange colors on the radar seem to be expanding a little as it is approaching NYC area..... Is there even a main low yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 RA 68.1/68 2.62" total precipitation Rainfall has not been extreme in Dobbs Ferry, but we're still heading towards a mess tonight for my delivery shift with the heaviest rains spreading into the area from the SW. I imagine we'll have a good chance of surpassing 6" when this event has wound down, just insane here. Heh, expect this to happen in the winter too when we're getting 20" of snow and you're enjoying all your cold dry air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Someone just posted a great video of a drive down a flooded Park Ave here in Long Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 depending on the track of the main low..it is possible it may not stop raining in NYC for many hours.. The low (still west)seems to be moving ESE and a pivot point feature will occur somewhere..here the rain will stop sagging east and then turn north the rain looks like it wants to end in western NJ but then more moves in/develops from the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 i dont see that at all yet That super heavy rain appears to be headed right for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Yellow and some orange colors on the radar seem to be expanding a little as it is approaching NYC area..... Well that changed rather quickly. Nice heavy batch forming south of Eastern Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 That super heavy rain appears to be headed right for NYC. I'll be at 10 soon in brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Up to 4.01 inches here. Rain has tapered off now as the heavy stuff seems to be shifting to the east. Is another batch of rain expected tonight or is this mainly it? I'm honestly surprised at how well the Raritan River has taken all of this rain. 4 inches of rain here and yet it's not even expected to get to action stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 That super heavy rain appears to be headed right for NYC. yeah but not northern/northwest jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 NAM/SREF still seem a little too far west with the rain..especially if you look at the radar trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Up to 4.01 inches here. Rain has tapered off now as the heavy stuff seems to be shifting to the east. Is another batch of rain expected tonight or is this mainly it? Would like to know also.... Imagine if this starts to pivot and the heavy rains stay over NYC, Queens and Nassau for a few more hours? Rainfall totals would be unreal as if the 8" - 10" already fallen is not record breaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 2-4 more inches of rain for NYC seems likely, shouldn't cause too many problems besides the usuall street and poor drainage areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Up to 5.04" for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 354 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2011 SYNOPSIS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT...THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN TRACKING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THEN OFF THE COAST EARLY THURSDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE AREA LATE THURSDAY BEFORE PASSING EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/ CUTOFF 850-500 HPA OVER NE OHIO AT 19Z...DRIFTS SE INTO NORTHERN WVA/SW PA BY MONDAY MORNING. IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND IT A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN VA AT 19Z...TRACKS TO OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS COULD END UP IN ANOTHER COUPLED JET STRUCTURE TONIGHT...LIKE LAST NIGHT...SO WITH CONTINUED SUB- TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED...SOLID ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND IMPACT OF SHORTWAVES...ANOTHER WET NIGHT...ON NET...IS ON TAP FOR THE TRI- STATE. IN THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM...THE QUESTION IS DOES FILLING DRY SLOT OVER CENTRAL PA WORK INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW HAVE SOME DOUBTS...BUT DO THINK IT WILL HELP CONSOLIDATE PRECIP MORE OVER THE NW PARTS THAN SE PARTS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING...AS SUGGESTED BY ALL GUIDANCE IN RESPONSE TO FORECAST LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. RAIN SHOULD THEN OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...AIDED BY APPROACHING LOW LEVEL JET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 Im feeling left out here in the western burbs. You know what they say about being bullseyed 24 hours out. I do think come tomorrow northern NJ will be the main focus point but as of now I would agree that my earlier thoughts about the rain pivoting westward has not commenced yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted August 14, 2011 Share Posted August 14, 2011 And beginning to see a back edge moving into se PA and Hunterdon and Warren Counties of NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.