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Heavy rain event 8/14-8/15 discussion/obs


ptb127

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Looks like 3 to 4" (with a small 4"+ area) and wouldnt that include some that's already fallen?

some of it but if you look at the sim radar you can see thunderstorms basically camping out over the area. We also get the most flooding when the rain falls mostly to our north much more so than south of us which has been the case for most of the day so far. The Pompton Rive is one of the most flashiest rivers in the area with runoff coming from the Pequannock, Wanaque and the Ramapo, all to our North. When it falls right over us the river quickly rises and then falls just as fast. A 3" rain in 12 hours caused a 10 foot rise here in less than 24 hours back in March. The normal river height for this time of year is about 8' and the first flooding begins at 13' with major stage at 19'. By that time half the town is under water.

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I added up these figures twice and it came out to 7.41" It has to be off lol

http://classic.wunde...eq_statename=NA

12:51 AM 75.0 °F 64.0 °F 69% 29.99 in 10.0 miles SSW 5.8 mph - N/A Overcast

1:51 AM 75.0 °F 64.9 °F 71% 29.97 in 8.0 miles SSW 4.6 mph - 0.00 in Rain Light Rain

2:10 AM 73.4 °F 66.2 °F 78% 29.96 in 4.0 miles SSW 10.4 mph - 0.06 in Rain , Thunderstorm Thunderstorms and Rain

2:28 AM 71.6 °F 68.0 °F 88% 29.97 in 3.0 miles SW 11.5 mph - 0.13 in Rain , Thunderstorm Heavy Thunderstorms and Rain

2:47 AM 69.8 °F 68.0 °F 94% 29.94 in 2.0 miles Calm Calm - 0.39 in Rain , Thunderstorm Heavy Thunderstorms and Rain

2:51 AM 70.0 °F 66.9 °F 90% 29.94 in 5.0 miles North 3.5 mph - 0.42 in Rain , Thunderstorm Thunderstorms and Rain

3:30 AM 71.6 °F 66.2 °F 83% 29.93 in 2.0 miles NE 9.2 mph - 0.02 in Rain , Thunderstorm Heavy Thunderstorms and Rain

3:36 AM 71.6 °F 66.2 °F 83% 29.91 in 1.0 miles NNE 16.1 mph - 0.02 in Rain , Thunderstorm Heavy Thunderstorms and Rain

3:51 AM 71.1 °F 66.9 °F 87% 29.91 in 1.0 miles WNW 11.5 mph 20.7 mph 0.23 in Rain , Thunderstorm Heavy Thunderstorms and Rain

4:51 AM 69.1 °F 66.9 °F 93% 29.91 in 2.0 miles West 4.6 mph - 2.83 in Rain , Thunderstorm Heavy Thunderstorms and Rain

5:51 AM 70.0 °F 66.9 °F 90% 29.93 in 2.0 miles North 4.6 mph - 0.56 in Rain , Thunderstorm Heavy Thunderstorms and Rain

6:44 AM 69.8 °F 66.2 °F 88% 29.94 in 2.0 miles Calm Calm - 0.84 in Rain Heavy Rain

6:51 AM 69.1 °F 66.9 °F 93% 29.94 in 2.0 miles Calm Calm - 0.87 in Rain Heavy Rain

6:56 AM 69.8 °F 66.2 °F 88% 29.93 in 1.8 miles Calm Calm - 0.04 in Rain Heavy Rain

7:51 AM 70.0 °F 66.9 °F 90% 29.93 in 3.0 miles ESE 6.9 mph - 0.70 in Rain Rain

8:23 AM 69.8 °F 66.2 °F 88% 29.92 in 5.0 miles ESE 5.8 mph - 0.11 in Rain Rain

8:51 AM 69.1 °F 66.9 °F 93% 29.91 in 4.0 miles East 10.4 mph - 0.19 in Rain Heavy Rain

Try it now.

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You can really see whats taking place on radar now, the precip currently over northern NJ is dying out and the stuff down in Central NJ and over PA is intensifying, almost like a banding affect. It looks to moving more northerly now as well instead of NE. Probably close to what the 12z NAM was depicting.

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Hearing a lot of fire trucks going around now-must be a lot of house/basement flooding. Our main road (Park Ave) only has one lane open because of flooding. The West End of town must be completely inundated, since they flood very easily during even brief heavy rain bouts.

Down by me there were three houses with basement flooding just in a small area so the pumps must be going across town.

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Down by me there were three houses with basement flooding just in a small area so the pumps must be going across town.

Yeah, I took a drive around and the pumps are out in full force. Streets aren't so bad anymore since we're down to a moderate rain that the storm drains (at least around here) can handle. But compared to Island Park and the West End which are lower lying and harder to drain, it probably gets far worse there. 2 of my friends who live up in Island Park are flooded good right now.

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Gfs and euro had 2"-4" of total rain for NYC area on yesterdays runs.

We are already up to 4"-7" in the NYC metro.

Because models can't handle the short duration intensity that can happen. The NAM is probably the only one that can, since it's more mesoscale, but even that won't always get the intensity correct. Ir's one of those things where you know a sh*tload will fall..just a matter of where.

Looks like heavier stuff moved east, but more stuff pivoting up from NJ, like we mentioned earlier.

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Because models can't handle the short duration intensity that can happen. The NAM is probably the only one that can, since it's more mesoscale, but even that won't always get the intensity correct. Ir's one of those things where you know a sh*tload will fall..just a matter of where.

Looks like heavier stuff moved east, but more stuff pivoting up from NJ, like we mentioned earlier.

Yup. I know.

I was responding to the poster who said 12z GFS has another 2" of rain.

Models like SPC-WRF, NMM, ARW and NAM were all showing 6"-8" precip maximums. Location of it was a little off but the potential was shown well on these models.

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