ptb127 Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 No topics on this yet but what do you guys think of the heavy rain threat this weekend? http://www.nco.ncep....fs_p60_084m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 The NAM wants to hold most of the rain to our west until late in the day on Sunday, and dumps alot of rain over the same areas. The GFS is slightly more progressive, we will have to see if its a resolution issue or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 our heaviest rains will probably occur sunday night after 00z with the development of a secondary low pressure system Sunday night looks like slow moving heavy elevated convection with the potential for training of cells. Monday is looking like more of the same with the instability possibly becoming surface based. Euro would agree with you guys. 00z euro has 2+ for the area, most of the rain stays to our west during sunday. Sunday night and monday is the bulk..........eastern PA get 3-4 on the euro 00z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 GFS still insisting we get rain all day Sunday with a good .75" by evening. NAM says nothing til early evening. That's a pretty big disparity for less than 48 hours out but I guess par for the course lately. Euro would agree with you guys. 00z euro has 2+ for the area, most of the rain stays to our west during sunday. Sunday night and monday is the bulk..........eastern PA get 3-4 on the euro 00z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 It has been being discussed, it is just that everyone posts every single thought on everything weather-related in the one August "superthread" within this subforum. It drives me nuts. We already have a subforum, we can branch out the threads a little guys.... I had an all-day beach trip planned for Sunday so seeing the model disparity this close in is a bit disheartening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 The 12z euro has less then a inch of rain for us now...keeps all the heavy rain in cny and central pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 the convective nature of this event is bound to screw someone over. with the models now showing weaker secondary development, it might be all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 the convective nature of this event is bound to screw someone over. with the models now showing weaker secondary development, it might be all of us. how is a summer rainstorm missing us "screwing us"...winter i get...but rain in the summer...i think if it misses us its a score... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 The 12z euro has less then a inch of rain for us now...keeps all the heavy rain in cny and central pa Not surprised, PA tends to do well with these scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 the convective nature of this event is bound to screw someone over. with the models now showing weaker secondary development, it might be all of us. yea, best dynamics could stay west and north of the area. We'll see. NWS has a long discussion on it saying there is alot of flip flopping in the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 how is a summer rainstorm missing us "screwing us"...winter i get...but rain in the summer...i think if it misses us its a score... agreed---i was talking in terms of those who were rooting for the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 15z srefs. Heaviest West and North but we still get a decent dose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 The 18z NAM gets us all pretty good from NYC North and West. It starts the rain early Sunday morning in the form of showers and is still raining in parts of our region at the end of its run on Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 It will be interesting to see if the 0z models hold with the 18z more eastward focus for the rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 hopefully everything misses, who is actually rooting for this nasty rain on a summer Sunday in August Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Nobody in the thread is rooting for rain lol (maybe yanksfan) we are discussing the weather and the reality that its going to rain and some models like the srefs/gfs/rgem are showing a good amount of it. It doesnt matter if we want dry and sunny weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mgerb Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Nobody in the thread is rooting for rain lol (maybe yanksfan) I'll root for it. I love a good, heavy rain storm. Bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kborne Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 I'll root for it. I love a good, heavy rain storm. Bring it! Yep, I agree. Heavy rain any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 So the NAM finally caught up and now brings rain in all day Sunday, lasting into Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 I'll root for it. I love a good, heavy rain storm. Bring it! Normally I wouldn't take it but the weather's just been so damn boring lately. If it's going to be cloudy we might as well have an excessive rain event, that's my philosophy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Very good recipe for hvy rains given the synoptics evolving over the next 48 hours. Upper level s/w trough propagating east, becoming neutral to even slightly negatively tilted by Sunday night. Closed lows at H7 and 850mb however, with surface flow originating in the sub-tropics, providing plenty of moisture feed into the area. So we've got upper level dynamics via the s/w trough, low level convergence via a deep moisture feed off the Atlantic, etc, and H7 vertical velocities are progged to be fairly impressive so I'd think there will be locallized totals higher/much higher than modelling currently suggests. Would not be surprised to see some locations w/ training convection record over 4" of rain while others may only see 1" or less. Overall though it should be a pretty widespread rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 00z euro is a bit wetter for the area 1+.........still keeps the big amounts in eastern PA and upstate Ny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Both the 00z NAM, and GFS had the heavy rain further east then previous runs, places the heavier stuff over NJ/NYC metro, 2"+ amounts. Not sure if the Euro would be the model of choice now since we are within 24 hours of the start of the event. 00z euro is a bit wetter for the area 1+.........still keeps the big amounts in eastern PA and upstate Ny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 It gone rain on SUN, and MON too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 00Z RGEM 48 hours total rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lindywx Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 6Z GFS has come east with flooding rains encompassing L.I. through hour 60 to the tune of possibly 3-5". Quite a soaker as it looks like mostly a stratiform rain with some convective elements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 You can put a vote for rain here also. Ill take it. Main reason is to put negative days for the monthly anomaly and I enjoy a good downpour also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 You can put a vote for rain here also. Ill take it. Main reason is to put negative days for the monthly anomaly and I enjoy a good downpour also. I'll take the rain also. I like long duration rainfalls once in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 Guidance converging on a good soaker across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 13, 2011 Share Posted August 13, 2011 12z NAM is 1"-2" across the board with heavier amounts of 2"-4" in western Jersey. Starts early tomorrow morning and right through Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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