NCSNOW Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Yeah that makes sense. NAO looks to go positive around Christmas last I saw too. Eyewall you got a link for this. I only use Allens and out 15 days its stays negative west and east. Of course I havent checked today and will soon. Just wandering if you have a good recomendation to a 30 day nao forecast link. Also I'm growing real skeptical of the disaster scenerio thats been painted for our winter as a whole D,J,F. I was in this camp of thinking, but yesterday I read DT asking where is Nina (due to current surface obs), he and others are raisng all sorts of doubts now for various reasons. Not all but alot of the consenus from what I'm reading here and there is the consistency of the nao staying negative over the next 80 days, this Nina being more like ones back in the 50's compared to most recent ones e.t.c. I'm sure the nao will flucuate and become neutral or slightly positive for brief intervals, but over the long haul I think it will continue on the negative side as whole. Now the lack of moisture this winter is spot on and should unfold as projected IMO. No STJ influence would be the main culprit. However temps are another story. Just don't see a blowtorch. In fact I expect when all is said and done we average out or only deviate +1 or -1. Just my opinion and hopefully others can expound or offer up their opinions, espeacilly mets. Thanks in advance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 18z GFS ens members, still showing a fair amount of uncertainty... A couple would imply some SN for central and western NC, and the majority support the idea of some isolated sn-showers on the back side. Members n002 and n004 would be good tracks for southern snows (especially for parts of NC), but I assume those are most likely outliers until there is more support. Nice to see at least a couple of decent solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Given the 18Z Ensemble mean, Nashville seems to do well..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 18z GFS ens members, still showing a fair amount of uncertainty... A couple would imply some SN for central and western NC, and the majority support the idea of some isolated sn-showers on the back side. Interesting to me that at hour 132, 4 of the members are winding this system up in the SE (AL to NC). As you mention, a lot of uncertainty remains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 It'll be interesting to see what the 0z 12/8 ens members look like. Operational looks like it is trending north w/ the surface low just a tad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 8, 2010 Author Share Posted December 8, 2010 The Ensemble mean, especially, is almost always SE of the OP GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Todays colds will be nothing compared to whats coming if the 0z GFS verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 8, 2010 Author Share Posted December 8, 2010 Todays colds will be nothing compared to whats coming if the 0z GFS verifies. And the Euro is colder in the upper levels than the GFS. Insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 And the Euro is colder in the upper levels than the GFS. Insane. Whether we get snow or not in the SE this December, if that verifies...it will be one of the highlights of this winter season IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Todays colds will be nothing compared to whats coming if the 0z GFS verifies. The GFS has looked pretty reasonable to me, on these cold outbreaks. The reason the next one is so cold is that it takes part of the cold vortex lobe moving in tandem w/ the southern stream and stalls it near the lakes, then completely merges it with the srn stream, causing one very large vortex. All that is blocked from the rising heights in Greenland, so the expansive cold thats in southern Canada and the Lakes gets sling-shotted due south, so whats in Michigan is about the same as what arrives in NC and GA just slightly modified. At one point during the middle of the day, the 2m temps are 32 or less right down to the Ga, Fl border (if I recall its 18z Monday or Tues). That would be stunningly cold for Tallahassee and Valdosta. The 510 height contour engulfs all of NC for a time, another rare treat. Thats only happened in a few outbreaks I can think of 83 , '85, '89 with 850's around -16 or lower for a good time. Beyond that, the vortex in the northeast remains mostly stationary and a southern stream system may take the low road. Usually, models are too slow with moisture coming east, but they also tend to hold the 50/50 in place too long erroneously. Either way, we've got some interesting options around days 9 or 10 on this run. One final note, the ridging in high latitudes works west to cover Canada. This acts as a split flow, and we'll have a limited supply of cold air, but normally that 5H looks is pretty good for southern Winter events of some type because the westerlies and storm track is displaced very far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 That's some nasty s**t being projected on the latest GFS run for next Tuesday. http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=kmrn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 0z GFS ens mean south of the 18z and 12z mean at 120hrs, and around about 500 miles south of the 0z operational, which suggests continued disagreement amongst the members After this, the COLD cometh... those are ensemble mean 850 T anomalies btw, which are impressive to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 0z GFS ens mean south of the 18z and 12z mean at 120hrs, and around about 500 miles south of the 0z operational, which suggests continued disagreement amongst the members After this, the COLD cometh... those are ensemble mean 850 T anomalies btw, which is impressive to say the least That's quite a southward shift. I didn't think the ensembles would go so far with our system. Of course, Jeremy did mention how they tend to be further SE than the OPs, so I suppose it was to be somewhat expected. We're definitely in for it now with the next shot of cold. Like some of you alluded, this one looks to be really nasty and perhaps as bad as this week. Some of us might end up struggling to reach 30! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Can someone explain how the ensemble mean compares to the operational run of a model? I assume that the ensemble mean is the average of all of the ensemble members. What goes into the operational run of a model that makes it the defacto run of the model that is used as lead guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Can someone explain how the ensemble mean compares to the operational run of a model? I assume that the ensemble mean is the average of all of the ensemble members. What goes into the operational run of a model that makes it the defacto run of the model that is used as lead guidance? This is an excellent question that I would also like to hear the answer to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Can someone explain how the ensemble mean compares to the operational run of a model? I assume that the ensemble mean is the average of all of the ensemble members. What goes into the operational run of a model that makes it the defacto run of the model that is used as lead guidance? The initialization is not perturbed at all (i.e., the initial data in the model run (hour 0) is based on actual collected data) with the op. run. However, it is perturbed for all other members I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Looks like the Euro shifted South and East somewhat with 0z. 12z had the LP moving from Central Oklahoma up to SW Michigan. 0z has it moving from NE Arkansas up to Pennsylvania. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 6Z GFS says no dice with the low moving through southern Ohio. Will be interesting to see the 6Z ensembles and if they disagree with the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 6Z GFS says no dice with the low moving through southern Ohio. Will be interesting to see the 6Z ensembles and if they disagree with the op. 6z did have the LP crossing the Apps this time instead of running up them. Sets up a decent upslope event once again for the East TN/West NC mtns too. LeConte can use the snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Sunday: Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Sunday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Monday: A 20 percent chance of snow. Partly sunny and windy, with a high near 27. Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 15. Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 36. Some really cold air and if we are lucky a little snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 6Z ensemble mean...some major changes from the OP run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 6Z ensemble mean...some major changes from the OP run. And if you look at the individual members there are some very southern solutions although they are the outlier at this point in time. But the 6z did trend south on the ensembles. Either way it looks like super cold is on the way for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday and flurries and snow showers still look like a good possibility to me across the northern half of GA Sunday afternoon/night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 6Z ensemble mean...some major changes from the OP run. What does this mean exactly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 What does this mean exactly? It means we could get a trend south. The way models work is that they look at data collected then spit out say 1,000 different scenarios of those 1,000 700 come out exactly the same. That is what ends up showing up on the main model. However mets and enthusiasts also like to look at the ensemble maps which would be the other solutions it spit out a high frequency but not high enough to make the cut. What sometimes ends up happening is that one of the solutions that came up a lot but not enough to make the final call ends up being the right solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 It means we could get a trend south. The way models work is that they look at data collected then spit out say 1,000 different scenarios of those 1,000 700 come out exactly the same. That is what ends up showing up on the main model. However mets and enthusiasts also like to look at the ensemble maps which would be the other solutions it spit out a high frequency but not high enough to make the cut. What sometimes ends up happening is that one of the solutions that came up a lot but not enough to make the final call ends up being the right solution. Although I highly doubt we can get a trend south far enough to put us back in the game I do believe that models will begin to trend south either later today or tomorrow. The blocking is so intense that I think models have been to quick in moving it. This is just my opinion but I don't see the storm cutting as much as has been depicted the past several days. It's a bit of a hunch but that is my feels on the matter. Either way some might intense cold is looking to stay around for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Always nice to wake up to the 192hr z DGEX sn-accum map painting a pretty picture... In all seriousness though, two camps in the overnight and early am guidance. One south and east on the lee side of the Apps, and the second north and west on the windward side. Ensemble means of both the EC and GFS are south and east of the operational track, and have trended such since the 12z run yesterday, at-least up to the DC area. Canadian and NOGAPS are on the western side of the envelope with a track through Kentucky, before moving ene to near DC at 120hrs. 0z UKMET has a 988 over Fayetteville at 120hrs, and a closed ULL centered near the Upstate of SC. Anyone who sees this low pass to there east and south stands a chance of seeing accum SN baring you don't get slotted. Fun times ahead for the rest of the week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Go figure it is barely above freezing during the day and in the teens at night, then the rain comes in, jumps up to mid 50's and lows above freezing, then the very next day back to freezing with no precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Always nice to wake up to the 192hr z DGEX sn-accum map painting a pretty picture... In all seriousness though, two camps in the overnight and early am guidance. One south and east on the lee side of the Apps, and the second north and west on the windward side. Ensemble means of both the EC and GFS are south and east of the operational track, and have trended such since the 12z run yesterday, at-least up to the DC area. Canadian and NOGAPS are on the western side of the envelope with a track through Kentucky, before moving ene to near DC at 120hrs. 0z UKMET has a 988 over Fayetteville at 120hrs, and a closed ULL centered near the Upstate of SC. Anyone who sees this low pass to there east and south stands a good chance of seeing accum SN baring you don't get slotted. Fun times ahead for the rest of the week... LOL, I'll take that map any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 With such a strong system and cold punch, IF and it's a BIG IF, the system cruises east of the apps, then yes, snow is a distinct possibility, behind the system Sunday night. I don't expect anything like the DGEX but the trends are favorable. Always nice to wake up to the 192hr z DGEX sn-accum map painting a pretty picture... In all seriousness though, two camps in the overnight and early am guidance. One south and east on the lee side of the Apps, and the second north and west on the windward side. Ensemble means of both the EC and GFS are south and east of the operational track, and have trended such since the 12z run yesterday, at-least up to the DC area. Canadian and NOGAPS are on the western side of the envelope with a track through Kentucky, before moving ene to near DC at 120hrs. 0z UKMET has a 988 over Fayetteville at 120hrs, and a closed ULL centered near the Upstate of SC. Anyone who sees this low pass to there east and south stands a good chance of seeing accum SN baring you don't get slotted. Fun times ahead for the rest of the week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 6Z ensemble mean...some major changes from the OP run. Still,.....for anyone wishing for snow east of the mtns, this thing has got to dig farther south before heading east. Going from past experiences, once the LP center gets north of our lattitude the downsloping kills any wrap-around moisture that may be present. The one trend I am most interested in right now is the height of the western ridge. If we can get that ridge to pump up more out west, then our chances of a southward jog would improve. Right now, it doen't look too promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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