Potential December 12th-13th threat

[Brian]

Isn't FFC notorious for having horribly forecasts in these scenarios?

Yes, tomorrow they will have mid 50s...lol

[audioguy3107]

Isn't FFC notorious for having horribly forecasts in these scenarios?

In a word..........yes.

[Batman]

Sorry, in this case that is a horriible forecast, even if it is seven days out-there is is not THAT much uncertainty- I will sell the house, the farm and the ranch if the high next Tuesday is anywhere close to the upper 40s....

Good post Cheez. Maybe their strategy is to be conservative. But that is beyond conservative. It is stupid. If your interpretation of the 12Z models is correct, they could miss Tuesday's high by 20 degrees. That is horrible at any range. However, those of us in GA. have grown used to it.

Another interesting point is that as prolonged as our cold spell was last winter, I don't remember getting much below 10 for a low. We had about 12 nights straight in the teens, but can't recall single digits here in IMBY. Would be very interesting if next weeks shot gets us below our coldest low of last winter!

[Tyler Penland]

There are many on here with more knowledge than I. I would would love to here other arguements, but the lakes cutter solution depicted the last couple days on the 12th- 13th storm has not made much sense to me considering the pattern. I know the arguement being made about west vs east -NAO and the fact that there is not a strong PNA ridge, but we have a strong trough in the east with a strong NW flow. Early next week could be even stronger. To throw a storm right in the middle of that for a two day period that cuts to the great lakes, does not seem likely to me. I am not trying to say we should all get snow from this at all! I just think the lakes cutter solution seems very strange.

I was sort-of thinking the same thing. La Nina trends towards a lakes-cutter and I know the current La Nina is a strong one, but can it overcome all that? And no, I am also not saying we will get any snow.

[SBUWX23]

Sorry, in this case that is a horriible forecast, even if it is seven days out-there is is not THAT much uncertainty- I will sell the house, the farm and the ranch if the high next Tuesday is anywhere close to the upper 40s....

I guess I dont follow there forecasts too well. I do agree with you above about the fact there isnt that much uncertainty.

[Brian]

I guess I dont follow there forecasts too well. I do agree with you above about the fact there isnt that much uncertainty.

I would just like to know what they are looking at????

[Itunis]

I would just like to know what they are looking at????

As others have said they're looking heavily at climo. I will bet an arm and a leg they drop highs by at least 10 degrees by the AM package unless the models shift significantly.

[griteater]

Why is the forecast from our wonderful FFC so conservative next week, upper 40s Tuesday, that's not cold, imo...

Bottom line, looking at 7 day NWS forecasts is like watching John Fox football - annoyingly conservative. Checking out the latest posts on AmericanWx is the route to take if you want to know what the real 'possibilities' are down the road.

[jburns]

Because they are sticking closer to climatology as there is sitll uncertainty in the specifics. Its a 7day forecast and the bigger concerns are in the short term.

I guess they can use that method to give a forecast for any day months ahead. Except climatology is not a forecast.

[eyewall]

FAIL!

SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL

APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MODELS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE ALL TRENDED

NORTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWER. THE GFS

BRINGS THE LOW ACROSS KENTUCKY AND UP THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN WHERE AS

THE EUROPEAN IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH...BRING THE LOW ACROSS CHICAGO

AND SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD

KEEP CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IN THE WARM SECTOR A LITTLE LONGER

ALLOWING HIGHS TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY FROM 50 IN THE TRIAD TO NEAR OR

SLIGHTLY ABOVE 60 IN THE SOUTHEAST. WITH THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM

SLOWER...HAVE CUT BACK THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP LEAVING

SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE TRIAD FROM 0-6Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY PRECIP THAT

MIGHT LINGER INTO THE AREA DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF IN SITU COLD

AIR DAMMING PRIOR TO THE FRONT MOVING IN. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION

ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD ENTER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BETWEEN

6-12Z SUNDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

EXPECTING THE BULK OF THE WEATHER TO EXIT THE AREA BY 6Z ON MONDAY

WITH SOME LINGERING RAIN IN THE EAST. IF THERE IS A SEVERE

THREAT...IT WOULD BE A HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE EVENT. AT THIS POINT

THERE IS LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY HOWEVER BOTH BULK AND 0-1 KM SHEER

VALUES ARE HIGH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO

EVALUATE THE SEVERE THREAT BUT HAVE LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST

FOR NOW. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WITH THE TRACK FURTHER

NORTH THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY SNOW DUE TO WRAP AROUND EFFECTS ON THE

BACK SIDE OF THE LOW HAS DECREASED. EXPECTING LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT TO

DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST AS COLD AIR

ADVECTION SETS IN. THESE TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY BASED UPON THE FINAL

TIMING OF THE SYSTEM.

[Brian]

FAIL!

SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL

APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MODELS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE ALL TRENDED

NORTHWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWER. THE GFS

BRINGS THE LOW ACROSS KENTUCKY AND UP THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN WHERE AS

THE EUROPEAN IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH...BRING THE LOW ACROSS CHICAGO

AND SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD

KEEP CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IN THE WARM SECTOR A LITTLE LONGER

ALLOWING HIGHS TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY FROM 50 IN THE TRIAD TO NEAR OR

SLIGHTLY ABOVE 60 IN THE SOUTHEAST. WITH THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM

SLOWER...HAVE CUT BACK THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP LEAVING

SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE TRIAD FROM 0-6Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY PRECIP THAT

MIGHT LINGER INTO THE AREA DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF IN SITU COLD

AIR DAMMING PRIOR TO THE FRONT MOVING IN. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION

ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD ENTER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BETWEEN

6-12Z SUNDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

EXPECTING THE BULK OF THE WEATHER TO EXIT THE AREA BY 6Z ON MONDAY

WITH SOME LINGERING RAIN IN THE EAST. IF THERE IS A SEVERE

THREAT...IT WOULD BE A HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE EVENT. AT THIS POINT

THERE IS LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY HOWEVER BOTH BULK AND 0-1 KM SHEER

VALUES ARE HIGH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO

EVALUATE THE SEVERE THREAT BUT HAVE LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST

FOR NOW. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WITH THE TRACK FURTHER

NORTH THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY SNOW DUE TO WRAP AROUND EFFECTS ON THE

BACK SIDE OF THE LOW HAS DECREASED. EXPECTING LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT TO

DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST AS COLD AIR

ADVECTION SETS IN. THESE TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY BASED UPON THE FINAL

TIMING OF THE SYSTEM.

LOL--Thats even worse than the FFC debacle..........................

[eyewall]

LOL--Thats even worse than the FFC debacle..........................

Yeah except RAH is pretty damn good. I meant fail in this looks terrible for us. If we don't get a setup by Christmas or shortly after I am afraid we will torch to some degree around the new year and that would put off snow chances for some time.

[Brian]

Yeah except RAH is pretty damn good. I meant fail in this looks terrible for us. If we don't get a setup by Christmas or shortly after I am afraid we will torch to some degree around the new year and that would put off snow chances for some time.

Sorry did not mean anything... Snow chances actually look better for us, imo...

[eyewall]

Sorry did not mean anything... Snow chances actually look better for us, imo...

Yes they do. This is pretty much the disaster scenario for snow lovers east of the mountains.

[BullCityWx]

Yeah except RAH is pretty damn good. I meant fail in this looks terrible for us. If we don't get a setup by Christmas or shortly after I am afraid we will torch to some degree around the new year and that would put off snow chances for some time.

DT pretty much said the goose is cooked last night for snow lovers on the east coast until at least December 20th, if we want a large scale storm.

[eyewall]

DT pretty much said the goose is cooked last night for snow lovers on the east coast until at least December 20th, if we want a large scale storm.

Yeah that makes sense. NAO looks to go positive around Christmas last I saw too.

[strongwxnc]

Damn that goose..

Headed to Asheville on Friday, so I should get to see some snow on the ground....

DT pretty much said the goose is cooked last night for snow lovers on the east coast until at least December 20th, if we want a large scale storm.

[Jon]

Yeah except RAH is pretty damn good. I meant fail in this looks terrible for us. If we don't get a setup by Christmas or shortly after I am afraid we will torch to some degree around the new year and that would put off snow chances for some time.

RAH is pretty good, except when they labeled the clipper as a non-event the evening before....they fixed it later that night, though

I do like to read their AFD's, normally they're on the money.

DT pretty much said the goose is cooked last night for snow lovers on the east coast until at least December 20th, if we want a large scale storm.

Models are showing we have the moisture there hours 312-360....buuut we have to wait a week or so before we start talking about that one.

[BullCityWx]

Wow, the 12z GFS really was pretty bullish on RH outside of the mountains:

[Stormsfury]

There was another one Feb 23-24, 1989 - http://www.meteo.psu...1989/us0223.php

Snow Totals:

Aiken, SC - 7

Columbia, SC - 4

Savannah / Charleston / Wilmington - 1

Charlotte, NC - 5

Raleigh, NC - 4

Gatesville, NC - 18

Atlantic City, NJ - 18

Summerville SC got 4" of snow from that and at 5:30 am in the morning as I was getting up, observed thundersleet as I went outside to smoke my morning cigarette. Hard to believe just a week prior, an all time February high of 87º was set at KCHS (next day 24 hours later, 41º drizzle while the event in NC was ongoing from a backdoor cold front/damming situation.

[BullCityWx]

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kakh

That's the coldest run yet.

[Brian]

wow......:snowman:

[weatherheels]

http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=kakh

That's the coldest run yet.

lol, looking at that for kgso it shows next Tuesday being extremely cold. Tuesday will have temps throughout the day in the mid teens warming up to a little over 20 before midnight.

[Gastonwxman]

18z GFS similar to 6z, but a tad further north when it gets into NC and also faster with the system in the later runs:

18z at hr. 120:

6z GFS at hr. 132:

Both runs strangely have the system in nearly the same spot once it gets into NE VA.

[buckeyefan1]

There are many on here with more knowledge than I. I would would love to here other arguements, but the lakes cutter solution depicted the last couple days on the 12th- 13th storm has not made much sense to me considering the pattern. I know the arguement being made about west vs east -NAO and the fact that there is not a strong PNA ridge, but we have a strong trough in the east with a strong NW flow. Early next week could be even stronger. To throw a storm right in the middle of that for a two day period that cuts to the great lakes, does not seem likely to me. I am not trying to say we should all get snow from this at all! I just think the lakes cutter solution seems very strange.

Batman, I found this explanation by csnavywx in the Central/Western Discussion...

That 500mb map is ideal for cyclogenesis. Very broad and strong diffluence zone ahead, and the left front quad of the jet streak plowing into the trough axis, which is already starting to go neutral tilt. This progged storm looks like an idea candidate for Sutcliffe-Pettersen self-development process, which will cause a storm like this to bomb, mature quickly, and cause it to cut left pretty hard. (Self-development refers to a large-scale positive feedback process, which in favorable conditions, can help a cyclone deepen rapidly. To put it simply... DPVA induces a wave -> tightens the thermal gradient -> deepens the upper trough due to increased CAA ---> increases DPVA ---> strengthens the low -> tightens gradient ---> etc... eventually this is limited by the upper low outrunning the surface low and friction.)

^^^ This is why I this place

[CandymanColumbusGA]

About FFC... When I forecast (here in Columbus, GA out in the middle of no where) I don't even bother looking at their forecast until I get done. The past few mornings, I have had a good laugh! This morning for instance, at 4 am they had a chance for snow for tomorrow, then at 530am they had a chance for rain/sleet, then by 630 they had mostly cloudy conditions... NOW they have slight chance of sprinkles/flurries... Can you really CHANGE the forecast that many times in ONE day!? hahahaha! Also, for next week, I have been telling my chief that it may not get out of the 30s and he continues to go with GFS MOS and FFC. I don't know what they are doing up there, but whatever it is I want in! Can't wait to see what tomorrow brings!

[weatherfide]

About FFC... When I forecast (here in Columbus, GA out in the middle of no where) I don't even bother looking at their forecast until I get done. The past few mornings, I have had a good laugh! This morning for instance, at 4 am they had a chance for snow for tomorrow, then at 530am they had a chance for rain/sleet, then by 630 they had mostly cloudy conditions... NOW they have slight chance of sprinkles/flurries... Can you really CHANGE the forecast that many times in ONE day!? hahahaha! Also, for next week, I have been telling my chief that it may not get out of the 30s and he continues to go with GFS MOS and FFC. I don't know what they are doing up there, but whatever it is I want in! Can't wait to see what tomorrow brings!

I've seen their offices. I think I have an idea what may be going on there. Let's just say weather may not be their first passion.

[WeatherNC]

18z GFS ens members, still showing a fair amount of uncertainty... A couple would imply some SN for central and western NC, and the majority support the idea of some isolated sn-showers on the back side.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/18zf138.html

ens mean is a Memphis to Norfolk track, which has some support from a few less respected models, and obviously different than a Chi town special like the CMC and ECMWF are showing.

[Carvers Gap]

18z GFS ens members, still showing a fair amount of uncertainty... A couple would imply some SN for central and western NC, and the majority support the idea of some isolated sn-showers on the back side.

http://raleighwx.ame...rs/18zf138.html

WeatherNC. A fair number of those GFS ensemble members show some snowfall for NE TN. Seemed many of the solutions were further south. Would you discount those solutions as well? Or are those in play as a decent probability? Also, I don't know that I have ever thought about this. How is the operational run chosen?

I know the Euro has been somewhat "consistent" (that's relative) in going the Kentucky route w/ the low. Does it have any solutions as far south as the GFS? Honestly, I would feel better about TN's chances if the flow was a bit flatter. Those systems that dive from the NE are usually good for upslope, but not w/ the initial system.

[Nomad]

WeatherNC. A fair number of those GFS ensemble members show some snowfall for NE TN. Seemed many of the solutions were further south. Would you discount those solutions as well? Or are those in play as a decent probability? Also, I don't know that I have ever thought about this. How is the operational run chosen?

I know the Euro has been somewhat "consistent" (that's relative) in going the Kentucky route w/ the low. Does it have any solutions as far south as the GFS? Honestly, I would feel better about TN's chances if the flow was a bit flatter. Those systems that dive from the NE are usually good for upslope, but not w/ the initial system.

FWIW, I'm discounting those solutions that give NE TN snow other than upslope. Doesn't seem to fit the pattern. I'm not too distressed about it though. I'm not buying into this "warm from January on" idea. Warmer than this pattern, sure. Kills all of our snow chances warm, nah.