Potential December 12th-13th threat

[Cheeznado]

I'm from Aiken, and this bitter cold is awful without snow. Wind cuts right through you. My daughter is already asking when it is going to snow. She is 3, I had to tell her what she saw last year is more than I had seen in my life and she probably won't see a few inches before she is my age, much less 10.

Take her up to the mountains!

[SBUWX23]

Indeed this run of the ECMWF is extreme. If the 510 vortex closes off over Tristate region thats going to be a blockbuster advection cold wave for the Carolinas piedmont. Its how that area gets its absolute coldest surface temps and the models/mos will bust pretty badly on the 2m temps. Already it has highs in the 20s down to ATL BHM and CLT areas Monday and Tuesday, but I've noticed models go too warm when there is due northerly flow like will likely be happening. If this run is right, then this will be the coldest oubreak since 1996 and possibly getting close to 1989, both were brutal here.

If my memory serves me right from what I have read in the past, Dec 1989 was brutal but then a switch was flipped and it was torch time. Many will not like that if something like 1989 were to occur.

[WeatherNC]

Where do we go after this? With this kind of blocking extending from Greenland to the Bering Strait, would the cold and amplification reload, or would this cause the height fields across conus to flatten out?

[rduwx]

If my memory serves me right from what I have read in the past, Dec 1989 was brutal but then a switch was flipped and it was torch time. Many will not like that if something like 1989 were to occur.

Didn't we have a decent snowstorm in Jan or Feb of 89? I was at Louisburg College and remember having to drive home w/ it snowing like crazy.

EDIT: I checked NOAA's website and don't see anything for that timeframe but I know we had a good storm that year.

[FoothillsNC]

If my memory serves me right from what I have read in the past, Dec 1989 was brutal but then a switch was flipped and it was torch time. Many will not like that if something like 1989 were to occur.

Yeah, it switched and that was that for my area of NC. I think everyone went warm after the cold December in the central and eastern states. Thats one reason I don't like using up all the cold air in December but that very well may happen. I know a lot of forecasters were going with cold December and March and a warm Jan. The NAO and its strong blocking is whats allowing this to happen, but it can't keep happening atleast to this extreme. Toward the end of the run, the warm air backs westward in Canada, leaving the 50/50 vortex in place but weakened, which looks reasonable. That looks like a breakdown inthe pattern to milder/wetter for the southern states if you ask me.

[packfan98]

Rookie question: Is the big L sitting off of Wilimington anything to get excited about? Just wishful thinking on my part.

12z ECM 500 mb Height Anomalies for Day 7..

[SBUWX23]

Rookie question: Is the big L sitting off of Wilimington anything to get excited about? Just wishful thinking on my part.

No that L is there for the lowest 500 mb height anomaly.

[FoothillsNC]

Didn't we have a decent snowstorm in Jan or Feb of 89? I was at Louisburg College and remember having to drive home w/ it snowing like crazy.

EDIT: I checked NOAA's website and don't see anything for that timeframe but I know we had a good storm that year.

if memory serves correct, I think there was a Feb. storm in NC that year, I was in DC at the time and missed it. Don't know the details.

The interesting thing on the 2m temps off Euro, the morning lows aren't all that impressive outside the mountains..it looks similar there to the current cold wave. I think the reason is the surface high holds back in the upper midwest, our surface winds never totally decouple. If they were, which I'm sure they will in some areas, then radiational cooling would send surface temps toward 5 in a few areas of Georgia , Tenn and the Carolinas, outside the moutains.

[Brian]

if memory serves correct, I think there was a Feb. storm in NC that year, I was in DC at the time and missed it. Don't know the details.

The interesting thing on the 2m temps off Euro, the morning lows aren't all that impressive outside the mountains..it looks similar there to the current cold wave. I think the reason is the surface high holds back in the upper midwest, our surface winds never totally decouple. If they were, which I'm sure they will in some areas, then radiational cooling would send surface temps toward 5 in a few areas of Georgia , Tenn and the Carolinas, outside the moutains.

Interesting from FFC-KATL

Long term /Friday through Tuesday/...

next system to affect the County Warning Area still on target for this weekend. Both

GFS and European model (ecmwf) appear colder than the previous run...but at this

point will not make large changes...however will start to hedge a

bit on precipitation type Sunday. The onset of the precipitation appears to be delayed

by 12 hours and will delay mentioning any precipitation until Saturday.

Frontal passage will occur Saturday night with what appears to be some

substantial rainfall Saturday night across north Georgia ahead of the

front. Much colder air pours into the County Warning Area behind the front on

Sunday. There appears to be enough wrap around to produce

precipitation...low level thicknesses are indicating much of this could be

a mix of rain/snow Sunday afternoon...becoming all snow Sunday

evening before exiting the County Warning Area. Amounts...however look light and at

this point do not see a significant snowfall from this. But being in

the long term...this needs to be watched from run to run.

[rduwx]

if memory serves correct, I think there was a Feb. storm in NC that year, I was in DC at the time and missed it. Don't know the details.

The interesting thing on the 2m temps off Euro, the morning lows aren't all that impressive outside the mountains..it looks similar there to the current cold wave. I think the reason is the surface high holds back in the upper midwest, our surface winds never totally decouple. If they were, which I'm sure they will in some areas, then radiational cooling would send surface temps toward 5 in a few areas of Georgia , Tenn and the Carolinas, outside the moutains.

Thanks Foothills....I just found some information on it. February 17-18, 1989 Raleigh had 6.2 inches.

[kanc2001]

Indeed this run of the ECMWF is extreme. If the 510 vortex closes off over Tristate region thats going to be a blockbuster advection cold wave for the Carolinas piedmont. Its how that area gets its absolute coldest surface temps and the models/mos will bust pretty badly on the 2m temps. Already it has highs in the 20s down to ATL BHM and CLT areas Monday and Tuesday, but I've noticed models go too warm when there is due northerly flow like will likely be happening. If this run is right, then this will be the coldest oubreak since 1996 and possibly getting close to 1989, both were brutal here.

in a somewhat related note, '89 featured a blockbuster snow for the coastal carolinas and a white xmas taboot. I shiver remembering how cold that outbreak was. '89 was a moderate La Nina too, right?

edit: I guess I meant winter 89-90, the major snow here was in Dec. 89

[Tyler Penland]

Thanks Foothills....I just found some information on it. February 17-18, 1989 Raleigh had 6.2 inches.

My dad remembers that storm as being worse than the '93 blizzard here.

[griteater]

Thanks Foothills....I just found some information on it. February 17-18, 1989 Raleigh had 6.2 inches.

There was another one Feb 23-24, 1989 - http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1989/us0223.php

Snow Totals:

Aiken, SC - 7

Columbia, SC - 4

Savannah / Charleston / Wilmington - 1

Charlotte, NC - 5

Raleigh, NC - 4

Gatesville, NC - 18

Atlantic City, NJ - 18

[rduwx]

My dad remembers that storm as being worse than the '93 blizzard here.

The '89 storm was a good storm. Like I said before I was trying to get home from Louisburg and the snow was coming down so hard I couldn't see anything on the road. By the time I made it home my eyes were killing me from concentrating on the road. I was living in Marietta, Ga. during the '93 storm and that was a great storm. What I remeber the most about the '93 storm was the wind. We ran across the street from the apartments I was living in at the time to the QT and I swear I thought I had frostbite by the time I made it in the store. Anyway, sorry about the trip down memory lane, back to talking about the current weather.

[burgertime]

According to the 12z Euro freezing temps are around 32 in Orlando around lunch time on next Thursday. That my friends is cold.

[FoothillsNC]

According to the 12z Euro freezing temps are in Orlando around lunch time on next Thursday. That my friends is cold.

stock up on the OJ now. This is the type of cold wave to really get Florida peninsula as well as south Ga with some serious cold.

[burgertime]

stock up on the OJ now. This is the type of cold wave to really get Florida peninsula as well as south Ga with some serious cold.

Whoops meant temps are freezing. Yea if the Euro is correct that would just be incredible cold for that area...and literally killer cold for this area. Gotta worry about old, poor and homeless in this type of cold.

[EmersonGA]

in a somewhat related note, '89 featured a blockbuster snow for the coastal carolinas and a white xmas taboot. I shiver remembering how cold that outbreak was. '89 was a moderate La Nina too, right?

edit: I guess I meant winter 89-90, the major snow here was in Dec. 89

I seem to remember a good dusting on Christmas that year. Probably the only white Christmas I'll ever see.

[DaculaWeather]

I'll let Larry dig up the ATL records.

What you said about the snowshowers is what I'm hoping for. That's pretty much the best we can hope for this this. Based on the past several GFS runs it would indicate there could be enough snowshowers to give many areas a dusting to locally 1". Still a long ways to go and the Euro is not as good for this as the GFS...at least not yet.

Here's averages and records for our area. http://www.daculaweather.com/dacula_records.php

[WXinCanton]

I seem to remember a good dusting on Christmas that year. Probably the only white Christmas I'll ever see.

I remember the Christmas dusting. I was a freshmen in highschool, my first year in GA.

[DaculaWeather]

The '89 storm was a good storm. Like I said before I was trying to get home from Louisburg and the snow was coming down so hard I couldn't see anything on the road. By the time I made it home my eyes were killing me from concentrating on the road. I was living in Marietta, Ga. during the '93 storm and that was a great storm. What I remeber the most about the '93 storm was the wind. We ran across the street from the apartments I was living in at the time to the QT and I swear I thought I had frostbite by the time I made it in the store. Anyway, sorry about the trip down memory lane, back to talking about the current weather.

That storm had thunder and lightening... one of the best I've ever seen!

[MotoWeatherman]

Here's averages and records for our area. http://www.daculawea...ula_records.php

Is that for Atlanta? What is missing from what was asked is the record min HIGH. Do you know that information for Atlanta? TIA

[MotoWeatherman]

For those of use who want flurries or snow showers in GA the 12z EURO does not look near as good as the GFS. Everything is too far north to create measurable amounts. Many runs to go.......

[Cheeznado]

12/14 15 in 1917 17 in 1962 17 in 1914 12/15 11 in 1914 11 in 1901 17 in 1985+ 12/16 12 in 1951 12 in 1901 15 in 1989+

Above are the records for ATL (top 3) that are most likely to be threatened.

I did some looking at the Dec 1983 and Jan 1985 cold outbreaks and this one will not really be in that league. With those situations the thicknesses/850 temps were a lot colder to the north- 1000-500 thickness values well below 500 and 850 temps below -25. In this case, we will have maybe 504 thickness up to the north. Here, the 850mb temps are progged to maybe reach -15, in the above cases, it was -18 to -20. In both above cases the highs on at least one day in ATL did not make 20, the lowest mins were 0 and -8.

Therefore while this will be a very cold outbreak, it will not rise to truly historical levels- I am guessing we will have one or 2 days with highs below freezing and maybe ATL will have a low around 10.

[Brian]

12/14 15 in 1917 17 in 1962 17 in 1914 12/15 11 in 1914 11 in 1901 17 in 1985+ 12/16 12 in 1951 12 in 1901 15 in 1989+

Above are the records for ATL (top 3) that are most likely to be threatened.

I did some looking at the Dec 1983 and Jan 1985 cold outbreaks and this one will not really be in that league. With those situations the thicknesses/850 temps were a lot colder to the north- 1000-500 thickness values well below 500 and 850 temps below -25. In this case, we will have maybe 504 thickness up to the north. Here, the 850mb temps are progged to maybe reach -15 here, in the above cases, it was -18 to -20. In both above cases the highs on at least one day in ATL did not make 20, the lowest mins were 0 and -8.

Therefore while this will be a very cold outbreak, it will not rise to truly historical levels- I am guessing we will have one or 2 days with highs below freezing and maybe ATL will have a low around 10.

Why is the forecast from our wonderful FFC so conservative next week, upper 40s Tuesday, that's not cold, imo...

[SBUWX23]

Why is the forecast from our wonderful FFC so conservative next week, upper 40s Tuesday, that's not cold, imo...

Because they are sticking closer to climatology as there is sitll uncertainty in the specifics. Its a 7day forecast and the bigger concerns are in the short term.

[Brian]

Because they are sticking closer to climatology as there is sitll uncertainty in the specifics. Its a 7day forecast and the bigger concerns are in the short term.

OK, Thanks......

[Cheeznado]

Because they are sticking closer to climatology as there is sitll uncertainty in the specifics. Its a 7day forecast and the bigger concerns are in the short term.

Sorry, in this case that is a horriible forecast, even if it is seven days out-there is is not THAT much uncertainty- I will sell the house, the farm and the ranch if the high next Tuesday is anywhere close to the upper 40s....

[Brian]

Sorry, in this case that is a horriible forecast, even if it is seven days out-there is is not THAT much uncertainty- I will sell the house, the farm and the ranch if the high next Tuesday is anywhere close to the upper 40s....

Well they are always drinking down in that office...lol...

[burgertime]

Sorry, in this case that is a horriible forecast, even if it is seven days out-there is is not THAT much uncertainty- I will sell the house, the farm and the ranch if the high next Tuesday is anywhere close to the upper 40s....

Isn't FFC notorious for having horribly forecasts in these scenarios?