Potential December 12th-13th threat

[SBUWX23]

I guess no one here really cares that after this inland storm the cold shot may in fact be more impressive than the one being observed now.

[BullCityWx]

I guess no one here really cares that after this inland storm the cold shot may in fact be more impressive than the one being observed now.

Hopefully the Euro doesnt back off more on the cold as it did at 0z....this cold snap is probably going to be our only excitement until close to christmas, if then.

[SBUWX23]

Hopefully the Euro doesnt back off more on the cold as it did at 0z....this cold snap is probably going to be our only excitement until close to christmas, if then.

The ensembles look plenty cold still.

[weatherheels]

I guess no one here really cares that after this inland storm the cold shot may in fact be more impressive than the one being observed now.

I do. I'm not of the opinion that it shouldn't be cold if it isn't gonna snow. The cold looks mighty impressive. This looks to be one of the coldest air masses I can remember in sometime for this part of December. I'm hoping we get widespread single digit readings around here, even though the heating bill is gonna be sky high this month.

[FoothillsNC]

Hopefully the Euro doesnt back off more on the cold as it did at 0z....this cold snap is probably going to be our only excitement until close to christmas, if then.

yeah it was looking like a quick cold spell and getting a little more less impressive, but still plenty cold. The angle of the trough or lobe in the east means the coldest would be out of here a little quicker than this shot, but also if it cuts off and hangs around for days it would still be cold for a good duration. I'd like to see a winter storm hit here this month but I know odds are very against it in a Nina pattern and all the east to west or nw to se moving systems. We need have a system dig into the southern rockies while we have a huge vortex still in place in the Northeast, but not too big or we'll end up with what we have going on tomorrow....supression.

[MotoWeatherman]

Since I'm on the flurry watch for North Georgia I'm happy to see the GFS still looks good for flurries and snow showers for north Georgia wrapping on the back side of this system. 700mb and 850mb moisture look very good Sunday afternoon thru Sunday night. Of course if everything trends as far north as the Euro then it would not look as good for that.

[Gastonwxman]

12z GFS takes our storm back NE after going through Missouri and Kentucky.

[FoothillsNC]

12Z gfs is still on board with good snowshowers in the Tenn Valley into a lot of Alabama and n. Ga Sunday and Monday. The cold comes in NC at first from the Southwest. We've had a few instances of this before. By Monday and Tuesday the flow is perfect for a Lake Michigan tap to deliver an amazing upslope snowstorm into Tenn/NC. Easily going to be over a foot of snow in that setup for the preferred upslope regions.

[MotoWeatherman]

Checking out the 12zGFS surface temps still shows brutal cold on Monday and Tuesday. Forget what you see on the MOS numbers the sfc temp maps suggest upper 20's for highs in Atlanta on Monday with near 20 for a high in my area. Also shows lows in the teens for Atlanta on Tuesday and single digits in far NE GA.

Edit:

For Tuesday 2m Temp maps also suggest highs below freezing in Atlanta on Tuesday also....brrr.......

[WXinCanton]

Checking out the 12zGFS surface temps still shows brutal cold on Monday and Tuesday. Forget what you see on the MOS numbers the sfc temp maps suggest upper 20's for highs in Atlanta on Monday with near 20 for a high in my area. Also shows lows in the teens for Atlanta on Tuesday and single digits in far NE GA.

Thats has to be close to record low maximums. If we could get a couple good snowshowers/bursts what ever fell would surely stick.

[MotoWeatherman]

Thats has to be close to record low maximums. If we could get a couple good snowshowers/bursts what ever fell would surely stick.

I'll let Larry dig up the ATL records.

What you said about the snowshowers is what I'm hoping for. That's pretty much the best we can hope for this this. Based on the past several GFS runs it would indicate there could be enough snowshowers to give many areas a dusting to locally 1". Still a long ways to go and the Euro is not as good for this as the GFS...at least not yet.

[BullCityWx]

12Z gfs is still on board with good snowshowers in the Tenn Valley into a lot of Alabama and n. Ga Sunday and Monday. The cold comes in NC at first from the Southwest. We've had a few instances of this before. By Monday and Tuesday the flow is perfect for a Lake Michigan tap to deliver an amazing upslope snowstorm into Tenn/NC. Easily going to be over a foot of snow in that setup for the preferred upslope regions.

Check our soundings out...we actually stay pretty moist when the cold charges in. Best run for backside flurries/shsn yet for us.

[GaStorm]

I'll let Larry dig up the ATL records.

What you said about the snowshowers is what I'm hoping for. That's pretty much the best we can hope for this this. Based on the past several GFS runs it would indicate there could be enough snowshowers to give many areas a dusting to locally 1". Still a long ways to go and the Euro is not as good for this as the GFS...at least not yet.

The GFS has been pretty consistent on giving us snowshowers so hopefully it will happen.

[Stormsfury]

And it isn't cold now? KCHS just went above freezing, 34º, and I'm still holding at 32º! I just hate wasting cold like this BUT sneaky little s/w MIGHT be just potent enough to issue a snowflake warning Wednesday night across lower South Carolina if the very dry atmosphere in the lowest levels doesn't subliminate any snow that is falling aloft. There's only looking about a 6 hour window for this to occur.

[HWY316wx]

I guess no one here really cares that after this inland storm the cold shot may in fact be more impressive than the one being observed now.

I was just coming to make a post about the deep cold plunge for the Monday - Tuesday time frame and noticed flurries might still be a posibility.

This cold snap has been interesting to me, especially for how it holds even during afternoon heating hours from the sun.

[DeepSouthSC]

And it isn't cold now? KCHS just went above freezing, 34º, and I'm still holding at 32º! I just hate wasting cold like this BUT sneaky little s/w MIGHT be just potent enough to issue a snowflake warning Wednesday night across lower South Carolina if the very dry atmosphere in the lowest levels doesn't subliminate any snow that is falling aloft. There's only looking about a 6 hour window for this to occur.

Whew! Who are you telling, Stormsfury? It's about 35 degrees here now. I'm up-the-road from yourself, in Columbia. I also hate wasting cold weather on nada. Hopefully, we'll see something between the period of the 18th-23rd, this month. Seems interesting.

By the way, I see a couple of South Carolina folk in here. Buckeyestorm being another one. I'm looking forward to some interesting banter on this board.

[strongwxnc]

Welcome to the crew.

Whew! Who are you telling, Stormsfury? It's about 35 degrees here now. I'm up-the-road from yourself, in Columbia. I also hate wasting cold weather on nada. Hopefully, we'll see something between the period of the 18th-23rd, this month. Seems interesting.

By the way, I see a couple of South Carolina folk in here. Buckeyestorm being another one. I'm looking forward to some interesting banter on this board.

[Kevinhmd]

I was just coming to make a post about the deep cold plunge for the Monday - Tuesday time frame and noticed flurries might still be a posibility.

This cold snap has been interesting to me, especially for how it holds even during afternoon heating hours from the sun.

Shows you the effect of being so close to the solstice I guess (mimimum solar intensity - which doesn't really start to pick up again for the northern hemisphere until around the end of January). Compare this to what happened to our snows back in March the day after, when the sun came back out...

[NEGa]

Unfortunately cold chasing the moisture almost never works out here east of the mountains. The GFS is usually too agressive with the cold as it is being it is usually delayed by the terrain to the west. I wouldn't put too much hope in that.

there, fixed it for ya! lol

unless the cold air is in place in the se, you can usually forget the cold air making it in (unless its a cad with temps in the 30s and low dewpoints)

I do. I'm not of the opinion that it shouldn't be cold if it isn't gonna snow. The cold looks mighty impressive. This looks to be one of the coldest air masses I can remember in sometime for this part of December. I'm hoping we get widespread single digit readings around here, even though the heating bill is gonna be sky high this month.

ditto - while i would prefer snow/frozen precip with the cold temps, i will gladly take the cold. this current cold shot is much colder and longer lasting than i had thought this is winter

I'll let Larry dig up the ATL records.

What you said about the snowshowers is what I'm hoping for. That's pretty much the best we can hope for this this. Based on the past several GFS runs it would indicate there could be enough snowshowers to give many areas a dusting to locally 1". Still a long ways to go and the Euro is not as good for this as the GFS...at least not yet.

that would be nice - its dec and any snow prior to christmas in ga is a bonus snow for me. mby doesnt usually do well in these set ups, but every once in a while i get some good snow showers or flurries. at least it would be on a day when a road trip would be possible if its close enough

[DLI4SCwx]

Just got back on the board. Didn't know Eastern got moved over to here. I see most of usual gang is here, except for Lookout. He still around?

[Bozart]

I see most of usual gang is here, except for Lookout. He still around?

Yeah, I've seen him around.

[eyewall]

there, fixed it for ya! lol

unless the cold air is in place in the se, you can usually forget the cold air making it in (unless its a cad with temps in the 30s and low dewpoints)

ditto - while i would prefer snow/frozen precip with the cold temps, i will gladly take the cold. this current cold shot is much colder and longer lasting than i had thought this is winter

that would be nice - its dec and any snow prior to christmas in ga is a bonus snow for me. mby doesnt usually do well in these set ups, but every once in a while i get some good snow showers or flurries. at least it would be on a day when a road trip would be possible if its close enough

haha thanks. I will pin my hopes on a clipper 100 times before doing so on back end flakes. The only back end flakes any of us see out here is when we are stuck using 1 ply.

This event is looking like a solid fail for NC outside of the mountains who will of course see some upslope.

[HWY316wx]

Yeah, I've seen him around.

Oh yeah, Lookout rides into town when someone nees a smacking or something is on the horizon.

[buckeyefan1]

And it isn't cold now? KCHS just went above freezing, 34º, and I'm still holding at 32º! I just hate wasting cold like this BUT sneaky little s/w MIGHT be just potent enough to issue a snowflake warning Wednesday night across lower South Carolina if the very dry atmosphere in the lowest levels doesn't subliminate any snow that is falling aloft. There's only looking about a 6 hour window for this to occur.

Don't forget the black construction paper and a flashlight for verification purposes

Whew! Who are you telling, Stormsfury? It's about 35 degrees here now. I'm up-the-road from yourself, in Columbia. I also hate wasting cold weather on nada. Hopefully, we'll see something between the period of the 18th-23rd, this month. Seems interesting.

By the way, I see a couple of South Carolina folk in here. Buckeyestorm being another one. I'm looking forward to some interesting banter on this board.

Welcome to the best Americanwx has to offer....the SE CREW It's nice to have another poster around from the CAE area

[NEGa]

haha thanks. I will pin my hopes on a clipper 100 times before doing so on back end flakes. The only back end flakes any of us see out here is when we are stuck using 1 ply.

This event is looking like a solid fail for NC outside of the mountains who will of course see some upslope.

lol. i gotta say your map from last year on this was very accurate. wrap around works for the mtns, but the rest of us are usually left out of the fun.

btw, try using two ply instead

[fig]

It's nice to see so many from eastern have migrated over here! Looking forward to another eventful winter, and hoping I can get another couple/few inches this year! (Dec 18-23???!!!)

[FLO]

I'm from Aiken, and this bitter cold is awful without snow. Wind cuts right through you. My daughter is already asking when it is going to snow. She is 3, I had to tell her what she saw last year is more than I had seen in my life and she probably won't see a few inches before she is my age, much less 10.

[SBUWX23]

FWIW, the 12z ECM is indicating some very cold air after the storm next week.. 850 T anomalies for hr 168

[SBUWX23]

12z ECM 500 mb Height Anomalies for Day 7..

[FoothillsNC]

12z ECM 500 mb Height Anomalies for Day 7..

Indeed this run of the ECMWF is extreme. If the 510 vortex closes off over Tristate region thats going to be a blockbuster advection cold wave for the Carolinas piedmont. Its how that area gets its absolute coldest surface temps and the models/mos will bust pretty badly on the 2m temps. Already it has highs in the 20s down to ATL BHM and CLT areas Monday and Tuesday, but I've noticed models go too warm when there is due northerly flow like will likely be happening. If this run is right, then this will be the coldest oubreak since 1996 and possibly getting close to 1989, both were brutal here.