Potential December 12th-13th threat

[WeatherNC]

I feel dumb but would somebody explain what a CAD is to me please. Never heard that term. Or post a link.

Thanks!

C.A.D. ---> Cold Air Damming

Better than I can explain it...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_air_damming

http://www.google.com/images?client=safari&rls=en&q=Cold+Air+Damming&oe=UTF-8&um=1&ie=UTF-8&source=og&sa=N&hl=en&tab=wi&biw=1440&bih=677

http://www.comet.ucar.edu/class/comap/06_Aug2_1999/docs/hartfield/cadamg/index.htm

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/weatherpapers/030/index.html

http://casil.met.fsu.edu/~bogdanoff/documents/met3300.pdf

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/hq/ssd/erps/tem/tem4.pdf

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/publications/preprint_WAF04_stanton.pdf

http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter_wx/Patterns.php

Enjoy!!!

The last two links which are from NC State are particularly helpful once you grasp the fundamental mechanism.

[Tyler Penland]

C.A.D. ---> Cold Air Damming

Better than I can explain it...

http://en.wikipedia....old_air_damming

http://www.google.co...iw=1440&bih=677

http://www.comet.uca...adamg/index.htm

http://www.theweathe.../030/index.html

http://casil.met.fsu...nts/met3300.pdf

http://www.erh.noaa....ps/tem/tem4.pdf

http://www4.ncsu.edu...F04_stanton.pdf

http://www.nc-climat...wx/Patterns.php

Enjoy!!!

The last two links which are from NC State are particularly helpful once you grasp the fundamental mechanism.

Thanks! Anybody having trouble with the radio show or just me? Already 22.3º ouside btw.

Wait. I bet its central time aint it.

[WeatherNC]

Thanks! Anybody having trouble with the radio show or just me? Already 22.3º ouside btw.

Wait. I bet its central time aint it.

No issue here, you need to create a blogtalk account if you do not have one to chat, and get live... DT is one, throwing bones at his listening audience...

[WeatherNC]

No issue here, you need to create a blogtalk account if you do not have one to chat, and get live... DT is one, throwing bones at his listening audience...

Never mind, DT talking about my 1", which still has some patches on the ground, next show is in 15 min per AMwx blogtalk...

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/americanwx

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

See the post below as it was the post before my facepalm, I do add to the discussion, and I will add facepalms were I see fit, so stop trolling my posts.

I understand you are new.... but the MODs will not tolerate your attitude or senseless posts. If you don't have anything useful to post, then don't post. My advice to you is .....read more and post less.

[BullCityWx]

Well, the 0z GFS IS about 200 miles further south this run:

[Cyclonicjunkie]

I understand you are new.... but the MODs will not tolerate your attitude or senseless posts. If you don't have anything useful to post, then don't post. My advice to you is .....read more and post less.

Not really that new, and most of my posts are valid wx posts, I have an attitude because someone has been nitpicking my posts every since I disagreed with them on a certain subject. There is nothing wrong with posting a smiley. I have already contacted a Mod about this situation, so there is no need to clutter up this thread with personal crap.

[Weather Czar]

At least it trended farther south with that vort energy. Maybe a trend? or just the GFS being the GFS. Still major differences from run to run with this model.

[lilj4425]

New GFS really dumps on the Upstate SC, NE Georgia, and Western NC areas this run at hr132: http://www.nco.ncep....fs_pcp_132m.gif Too bad it looks like rain for the most part.

[dsaur]

That piece coming in Wed. looks like it could put some flurries down, if folks in central Ala, and Ga. south are under the right cloud. Probably just a virga flizzard, but if it can find some moisture, maybe a flake hits the ground. It has been on the map a long time, and I find if the gfs 12 days back says an historic cold and snow is coming... and keeps the energy in some form... there is a good chance it will be sort of cold, and some flakes might flutter down with the partly cloudy.

28,29, and 30 depending where you are in the yard at near midnight. You mountain folks are sure getting the best of this cold! T

[superjames1992]

The 0z GFS is a little better, but the bottom line is that it's still rain all the way up into Nova Scotia. An inland runner is bad for anyone on the east coast. I reckon the Ohio Valley folks are thrilled, though!

[Midlo Snow Maker]

I understand you are new.... but the MODs will not tolerate your attitude or senseless posts. If you don't have anything useful to post, then don't post. My advice to you is .....read more and post less.

[John1122]

Honestly what intrigues me most about this storm is how powerful it's being modelled right now. It will produce wide spread super strong winds and someone on the NW, W and if that strong, the S side of it is liable to get a decent dumping of snow too, while people due N and NE of the low may see warm air and rain wrapped all the way up to the North side of the system.

[lilj4425]

Feast your eyes (cause you know it will only be temporary) on the ensemble mean: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemblep12132.gif and http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemblep12144.gif

[MillzPirate]

Looks like warm up-rain, dry out and cold

[RevDodd]

Honestly what intrigues me most about this storm is how powerful it's being modelled right now. It will produce wide spread super strong winds and someone on the NW, W and if that strong, the S side of it is liable to get a decent dumping of snow too, while people due N and NE of the low may see warm air and rain wrapped all the way up to the North side of the system.

With that sort of setup, we wouldn't sniff snow on this side of the region, but could be the makings of some strong/severe weather. And, as someone noted yesterday, any rain is a good rain for us. It'll be interesting to see the continued evolution of this system.

And yep ... the rev said "evolution."

[WXinCanton]

6Z GFS looks a little further south as well. This might be getting to a potential flizzard.

[burgertime]

6Z GFS looks a little further south as well. This might be getting to a potential flizzard.

6z certainly gives people in west and central NC some back end snow. This is a bit weenish of me but usually when the storm is exiting it seems like it overdoes the qpf and we just end up with partly cloudy and some drizzle/flurries. For Ga the sfc temps aren't right but alas it's all just speculation at this point.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

6z certainly gives people in west and central NC some back end snow. This is a bit weenish of me but usually when the storm is exiting it seems like it overdoes the qpf and we just end up with partly cloudy and some drizzle/flurries. For Ga the sfc temps aren't right but alas it's all just speculation at this point.

The 06z GFS seems to want to continue the south/east trend........ If this thing come far enough south/east, some of our mtn folks might get their winter snowfall averages before Christmas.

[burgertime]

The 06z GFS seems to want to continue the south/east trend........ If this thing come far enough south/east, some of our mtn folks might get their winter snowfall averages before Christmas.

Maybe our luck has changed and instead of the NE trend we get a southeast trend until the storm is here and we're under a blizzard warning.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

I was expecting to see the 0z Euro trend towards the GFS, but thats not the case. Looks like the GFS is right back to its original idea (Miller B turning into a Noreaster, Blizzard of 96 anyone) and the Euro holding onto its ugly lake cutter. Going to be some interesting AFD's for a couple of days, but i'm loving the 6zgfs

*Troll shield on*

[FoothillsNC]

6z certainly gives people in west and central NC some back end snow. This is a bit weenish of me but usually when the storm is exiting it seems like it overdoes the qpf and we just end up with partly cloudy and some drizzle/flurries. For Ga the sfc temps aren't right but alas it's all just speculation at this point.

its really not much precip here. At 132 when CLT turns cold enough aloft for snow, its over, other than trace flurries. Here's how much qpf the GFS gives. Its a classic case of eyewall's map (cold chasing moisture). For us to get snow from a system traveling so far south, we'll need the ULL to really be strong and wrapped up and have cold underneath it when it arrives. But if it were to keep trending south, maybe we'd have a couple of hours of heavy snowfall rates before the downsloping squashed all lift.

[BullCityWx]

DT seemed to think it was just the GFS biases showing last night since it's by far the furthest south of the modelling.

[Batman]

There are many on here with more knowledge than I. I would would love to here other arguements, but the lakes cutter solution depicted the last couple days on the 12th- 13th storm has not made much sense to me considering the pattern. I know the arguement being made about west vs east -NAO and the fact that there is not a strong PNA ridge, but we have a strong trough in the east with a strong NW flow. Early next week could be even stronger. To throw a storm right in the middle of that for a two day period that cuts to the great lakes, does not seem likely to me. I am not trying to say we should all get snow from this at all! I just think the lakes cutter solution seems very strange.

[eyewall]

6z certainly gives people in west and central NC some back end snow. This is a bit weenish of me but usually when the storm is exiting it seems like it overdoes the qpf and we just end up with partly cloudy and some drizzle/flurries. For Ga the sfc temps aren't right but alas it's all just speculation at this point.

Unfortunately cold chasing the moisture almost never works out here east of the mountains. The GFS is usually too agressive with the cold as it is being it is usually delayed by the terrain to the west. I wouldn't put too much hope in that.

[burgertime]

its really not much precip here. At 132 when CLT turns cold enough aloft for snow, its over, other than trace flurries. Here's how much qpf the GFS gives. Its a classic case of eyewall's map (cold chasing moisture). For us to get snow from a system traveling so far south, we'll need the ULL to really be strong and wrapped up and have cold underneath it when it arrives. But if it were to keep trending south, maybe we'd have a couple of hours of heavy snowfall rates before the downsloping squashed all lift.

Yea I figured as much, thanks for giving the explanation though I just know it always seems overdone on the models (scientific I know ). Should be interesting to see what the 12z says. Of course it's still 5 days out.

[burgertime]

Unfortunately cold chasing the moisture almost never works out here east of the mountains. The GFS is usually too agressive with the cold as it is being it is usually delayed by the terrain to the west. I wouldn't put too much hope in that.

Oh trust me, I wasn't resting my hopes on it at all. I know all to well not to trust any map. What I meant was that the GFS always over does the QPF amount giving folks false hope.

[audioguy3107]

Unfortunately cold chasing the moisture almost never works out here east of the mountains. The GFS is usually too agressive with the cold as it is being it is usually delayed by the terrain to the west. I wouldn't put too much hope in that.

When it's a cold chasing moisture setup (here in N Ga.), I've learned to not even pay attention. Never works.

[FoothillsNC]

When it's a cold chasing moisture setup (here in N Ga.), I've learned to not even pay attention. Never works.

you guys have a much, much higher shot at seeing wrap around flakes than places east of the Apps for sure. I'm still not sure which way the storm will develop yet, but most likely either scenario will send atleast a little bit of snow down to n. Ga mountains with the Sunday system. If it were to wrap up very strongly like a couple or runs ago, then there would be quite a bit of wrap around snow down to n Ga and probably even ATL area, but the system could be just too progressive yet. Still unknown. East of the Apps has very little hope for wrap around either way, unless the storm were to begin bombing out in central GA which is extremely unlikely at this point.

[oconeexman]

Then the upstate would officially be shutout by all!

Good luck Ga