Potential December 12th-13th threat

[phil882]

My rough call. Likely this will come down to nowcasting for western NC mountains after midnight, as its a close call. Theres big bust potential in the mountains and maybe even western Foothills during the pre-dawn Sunday morning event, as either option could occur: precip arrives mainly as snow, and pick up 2 to 5" by early Morning, or the bulk is rain or mix, only ending as snow toward dawn. Eventually the changeover will arrive while some good precip rates are still occuring, before the wrap around and upslope, which still looks impressive. For the areas west of the Apps and south toward northern ATL burbs, some snow showers should easily make it that far south during Sunday afternoon and overnight, with a few spots picking up dustings north of town. More duration snow showers along the NC/GA border counties for possible 1" accumulations , scattered among the dustings that occur.

Upslope potential is high with this, good duration of 36 hours should be easily achievable with high ratios, so I have no doubt parts of Avery and Watauga will get atleast 12" , with 6" -12" also fairly common in the southwest Smokies along the TN/NC border. Several bands of streamers with white out and blizzard conditions at times in the high country.

Are those 4" amounts you have in WNC elevation dependent? I still have a hard time seeing downtown Asheville or even the airport getting anything other than rain for the synoptic portion of the event.

[NEGa]

sure is.

GFS is very cold for you too, at the surface. As usual its a close call between 32 and 33 for your area, but something other than rain is possible around your neck of the woods.

850 6Z Sun:

2M temps 12z Sun:

thanks, and thanks for the maps! those do look pretty good for ne ga...and you are right, its usually a close call. for a while the close calls went the colder route. the last couple of years, with one or two exceptions, its been the 33 and rain (or worse literally 32.1 and rain lol). when i first moved back and it was almost always colder for quite a few years i think i got spoiled. then the last two or three years squashed the optimism

this one is tough since a degree or two either way will make a huge difference for quite a few of us. at least the waiting is going to be over soon and the event, whichever way it goes, should kick in later tonight

[FoothillsNC]

Are those 4" amounts you have in WNC elevation dependent? I still have a hard time seeing downtown Asheville or even the airport getting anything other than rain for the synoptic portion of the event.

I tried to spell out what I think *could* happen. Covering all the bases , If you read it I think in the text I put that bust potential is very high, and the precip could start as rain, remain mostly rain, or start as rain and go quickly to snow. If the latter happens then there would be accums. Even Asheville. I'm not sure that will happen but I just covered the bases. There may be no prefrontal snow there, just all backend stuff which would cut down to near nothing. Sounds like you feel pretty strongly AVL won't get snow on the front side, You may be right. I just like making calls if its right, oh well , if not, it won't be the first bust for me.

[isohume]

Thanks for your response. Sounds like we have something to look foward to. I have heard that GSP is one of the hardest offices to forecast in because of all the microclimates in the mnts. would you agree with this?

It can be demanding at times with the many variable interactions to consider. The mountains create all sorts of challenges...from flooding to temps to p-types to vsby/cigs to svr wx to fire wx to wind flow...you name it. The mountains also make it difficult to forecast across the adjacent non/mtns. Rarely do we get a classical looking systems (svr or winter) and even benign looking events can become tricky and hard to nowcast for across the piedmont. It also doesn't help we have 3 states to fcst for...this produces additional fcst coordination issues with fire wx, aviation and decision support, etc. 

[nchighcountrywx]

If I'm looking at this sounding, where's my snow growth layer?:

Date: 42 hour AVN valid 6Z MON 13 DEC 10
Station: 35.31,-81.23
Latitude:   35.31
Longitude: -81.23
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
	mb 	m 	C 	C    %   C 	C  deg knt   K 	K 	K 	K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 0 1000   -13                                                             	
SFC  967   254  -4.1  -6.0  86  2.0  -4.7 233  13 271.7 272.1 270.3 278.6  2.52
 2  950   393  -4.4  -7.2  81  2.7  -5.4 240  23 272.7 273.1 270.6 279.1  2.34
 3  900   819  -5.3 -10.0  69  4.7  -6.7 269  26 276.1 276.4 272.1 281.7  1.98
 4  850  1265  -8.0 -11.4  76  3.4  -9.0 290  37 277.8 278.1 273.0 283.1  1.88
 5  800  1734 -10.0 -13.9  74  3.8 -11.1 296  37 280.4 280.7 274.1 285.2  1.63
 6  750  2229 -13.1 -16.6  75  3.4 -14.0 296  34 282.3 282.6 274.8 286.4  1.40
 7  700  2750 -17.5 -18.9  88  1.4 -17.8 294  34 283.2 283.4 275.0 286.8  1.23
 8  650  3302 -19.7 -20.9  90  1.2 -19.9 281  30 286.7 286.9 276.7 290.1  1.12
 9  600  3895 -21.3 -23.9  80  2.5 -21.8 268  32 291.4 291.6 278.7 294.3  0.93
10  550  4531 -25.5 -28.3  77  2.8 -25.9 261  38 293.8 293.9 279.5 295.9  0.67
11  500  5215 -30.8 -34.0  73  3.2 -31.2 259  44 295.5 295.5 280.0 296.9  0.43
12  450  5954 -36.4 -40.5  66  4.1 -36.7 259  49 297.4 297.5 280.6 298.3  0.25
13  400  6761 -40.8 -47.5  48  6.7 -41.1 257  53 301.9 302.0 282.4 302.4  0.13
14  350  7666 -42.4 -54.8  24 12.5 -42.9 257  55 311.6 311.6 286.0 311.8  0.06
15  300  8709 -41.1 -61.3   9 20.2 -41.8 251  44 327.5 327.5 291.0 327.6  0.03
16  250  9940 -44.0 -63.1  10 19.2 -44.6 240  45 340.7 340.7 294.5 340.8  0.03
17  200 11427 -47.1 -67.0   9 19.8 -47.7 238  47 358.2 358.2 298.4 358.3  0.02
18  150 13315 -49.6 -76.0   3 26.4 -50.3 247  51 384.5 384.5 303.0 384.6  0.01
19  100 15951 -53.7 -82.5   2 28.8 -54.3 238  41 424.0 424.0 308.2 424.0  0.00
TRP                                         	0                              
WND                                         	0                         	

If that were my sounding, I'd want to see levels 6, 7 and 8 saturated.

[isohume]

Not bad! I know your likely not at work right now but do you think we might be getting anything similar SLR wise with this event? I think Dr. Perry and Dr. Miller are gonna be launching weather balloons from both  Poga Mountain and Warren Wilson College so it will be nice to have the added soundings to help out with this event. It seems that the valleys generally do better in regards to snowfall with these colder NWFS events.

Yeah, I'll be interested in seeing those soundings too. This airmass isn't as cold as the last one...but I bet B. Perry still gets high SLRs, probably not the 40:1s but I imagine 30:1 will happen. We need a better way to get these type of ratios in our grids. Right now...we can generally only go up to 25:1...and then the sn amounts need to be tweaked. But overall...we really need to start thinking these higher amounts given these types of nw flow air masses.     

[phil882]

I tried to spell out what I think *could* happen. Covering all the bases , If you read it I think in the text I put that bust potential is very high, and the precip could start as rain, remain mostly rain, or start as rain and go quickly to snow. If the latter happens then there would be accums. Even Asheville. I'm not sure that will happen but I just covered the bases. There may be no prefrontal snow there, just all backend stuff which would cut down to near nothing. Sounds like you feel pretty strongly AVL won't get snow on the front side, You may be right. I just like making calls if its right, oh well , if not, it won't be the first bust for me.

Fair enough... Its definitely a borderline event and I'd love for your map to verify . I'm just feel like knowing these events from the past, its very difficult to get accumulating snowfall from a surface low pressure located to our north until the frontal passage occurs. Even last year on February 10th, we were expecting to pick up some snowfall from the pre-frontal band and it managed to warm up overnight above freezing with rain in Asheville. The 500mb setup for that system is actually quite similar to what we have now, except the current system is a bit larger and has picked up more gulf moisture.

[FoothillsNC]

This airmass isn't as cold as the last one...

The GFS has it pretty close to the last one it appears if not even colder, roughly for the same region of the Carolinas. This time it looks even colder on the eastern Tenn . side of the mountains. By 66 and 72 hours it has -18 close to -20 coming into nw NC. It may be over done on the cold, who knows.

Dec 6-7 Cold:

Dec 13-14 prog:

[John1122]

First Winter Storm Warnings have been issued by Nashville NWS for their Central and Northern Plateau counties.

[Weather Czar]

Just going off 850 temps the Canadian implies all snow for extrem western NC.

[DaculaWeather]

This looks encouraging

[FoothillsNC]

Just going off 850 temps the Canadian implies all snow for extrem western NC.

I'm not very fond of the Canadian but

[isohume]

The GFS has it pretty close to the last one it appears if not even colder, roughly for the same region of the Carolinas.  This time it looks even colder on the eastern Tenn . side of the mountains. By 66 and 72 hours it has -18 close to -20 coming into nw NC. It y be over done on the cold, who knows. 

The GFS was the colder outlier this morning. Not supported by the SREF, EC or the NAM. In any case...it's a nice cA airmass and SLRs should be rather high towards the end of the event like the previous event.    

[FoothillsNC]

The GFS was the colder outlier this morning. Not supported by the SREF, EC or the NAM. In any case...it's a nice cA airmass and SLRs should be rather high towards the end of the event like the previous event.

Ah, I thought you guys weren't going for the colder GFS. I will say the op. GFS was very accurate from 72 hours out on the big cold events here though, both last year and so far this year. The Euro has been a smidge warmer, and ensembles more tame as well. Guess we'll see.

[isohume]

Ah, I thought you guys weren't going for the colder GFS. I will say the op. GFS was very accurate from 72 hours out on the big cold events here though, both last year and so far this year. The Euro has been a smidge warmer, and ensembles more tame as well.  Guess we'll see.

We're not...it's the obvious outlier. 

[HurricaneTracker]

Yea the 06z nam was a snow run for KAVL. BUFKIT had heavy snow with an isothermal sounding at 11z on the 06z run. The 12z nam run is warmer by about 1 degree C which is just enough to have mainly rain for the synoptic portion of this event. Its only about a 5,000ft layer warm nose. I don't know how far snowfall can fall before it melts into rain, but I imagine a 5,000 foot layer of 33-34 degree temperatures is not that deep.

the 12Z NAM has Asheville going isothermal around 09Z Sunday morning, then maybe wavering to rain/snow mix before becoming all snow again by 15Z.

GFS is eerily similar in the sounding data, except that at 09-15Z it keeps it all snow and never really changes it back to rain.

THIS COULD BE VERY INTERESTING!! Foothills may very well verify with his snow pre-frontal precipitation forecast.

Oh, and I would definitely have and Advisory for all WNC counties regardless of elevation. The grocery stores and gas stations are jammed around here - most seem to be preparing for something worse than the current forecast/wording from GSP suggests...

[HurricaneTracker]

Are those 4" amounts you have in WNC elevation dependent? I still have a hard time seeing downtown Asheville or even the airport getting anything other than rain for the synoptic portion of the event.

After examining the respective 12Z data from GFS and NAM, I disagree.

In my opinion, it should start as snow, change to rain, and then end as snow. Should be enough for at least an inch or so at the valley floors before the upslope begins.

[FoothillsNC]

We're not...it's the obvious outlier.

Actually, looks like its pretty remarkably close to the Ukmet and op. ECMWF as well. All the models I'm seeing show this outbreak equally as cold, if not substantially colder for western NC mountains on this upslope, and def. on the Tennessee side. Should be some great powder with extreme ratios again. A sneak peak at the new 12Z Euro has -16 in nw NC at 66 and 72 hours. Not bad at all.(and was too warm on the last outbreak)

[DaculaWeather]

I think I see an eyewall forming in Iowa!!! http://www.daculawea...onal_master.php

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2121NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0146 PM CST SAT DEC 11 2010AREAS AFFECTED...NE IA...SE MN...CNTRL WI

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 111946Z - 120145Z HEAVY SNOW BANDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH MID-EVENING FROM NE IA INTOCNTRL WI. HOURLY RATES WILL AVERAGE 1-1.5 INCHES.4-5MB PRESSURE FALLS OVER NRN IL SUGGEST THAT THE SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER THROUGH 03Z. SUBSTANTIAL WARM CONVEYOR E OF THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT 2-3 G/KG MIXING RATIO NWWD INTO THE UPPER MS VLY WITHIN THE 295-300K LAYER. THIS WILL RESULT IN RATHER WIDESPREAD MODERATE-HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER AN EXPANSIVE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING.LATEST RUC/SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MAXIMUM IN PRESSUREA DVECTION/ADIABATIC ASCENT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SEWD FROM THE MSP/EAUAR EAS INTO NE IA...SE MN AND CNTRL WI BY THIS EVENING. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR APPEAR TO BE SHOWING A SECONDARY ENHANCED SNOW AXIS BEGINNING TO FORM KMCW-KLSE-KAUW. PIVOT POINT OF THE PROLONGED HEAVY SNOW RATES SHOULD DEVELOPSOMEWHERE NEAR/NW OF KLSE THIS EVENING BEFORE MIGRATING FARTHER EAFTER 03Z OR SO. TOPOGRAPHY OF THE POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE SURFACES/FRONTOGENESIS ALSO SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST MODERATE SNOWFALLRATES COULD EXTEND SWWD INTO CNTRL IA THROUGH LATE EVENING.ADDITIONALLY...BLIZZARD OVER THE OPEN COUNTRY OF SCNTRL/SWRN MN ANDWRN IA WILL SPREAD EWD. PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET WILL DEVELOP EWDTHROUGH IA WITH NLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASING TO 35-45 KTS AS FAR EAS THE MS RIVER BY 03Z AND E OF THE RIVER 03-06Z.

[FoothillsNC]

I just looked at the nam and GFS qpf for just the upslope /wraparound part of the storm..and they are very high. I couldn't believe how much qpf they both generate on the upslope and considering how cold it will be and the ratios, this is going to be one wallop of an upslope. I don't recall how much qpf it forecast on the last event, but this is a lot for an upslope , combined with extreme ratios, and Joe will be digging out once more. Also, snow accum. down to northern Ga as well.

[DLI4SCwx]

Looks like we could see a few flurries around in SC too. Based on the 18z NAM from what I can tell.

[DaculaWeather]

Can someone please explain this map to me?

[eyewall]

This is all you need to read in central NC:

THE LATEST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT ONCE THE COLD FRONT SURGES

THROUGH OUR REGION...THE MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY GET PINCHED OFF BY

VERY STRONG MID LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS.

SATURATION IN THE -10 TO -20 CELSIUS SNOW GROWTH ZONE IS LACKING

ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z/MONDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE A CLASSIC EXAMPLE OF

THE VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR CHASING THE MOISTURE IN WHICH A FEW PASSING

SNOW FLURRIES MAY BE SEEN ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT.

[burgertime]

Ding ding eyewall wins

[Carvers Gap]

Excerpt from WWA issued by NWS in Morristown, TN:

TNZ012>017-035-042-044-046-120930-

/O.UPG.KMRX.WS.A.0004.101212T1200Z-101214T0000Z/

/O.NEW.KMRX.WW.Y.0025.101212T1500Z-101214T0000Z/

SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-SULLIVAN-MORGAN-

NORTHWEST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-NORTHWEST CARTER-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ONEIDA...LA FOLLETTE...TAZEWELL...

SNEEDVILLE...ROGERSVILLE...KINGSPORT...WARTBURG...GREENEVILLE...

JOHNSON CITY...ELIZABETHTON

331 PM EST SAT DEC 11 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM

EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY

TO 7 PM EST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING: PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN...THEN CHANGE TO OR MIX

WITH SNOW SUNDAY MORNING. ALL THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO

SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE

SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS: TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 3 AND 6 INCHES

ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND NORTHEAST

TENNESSEE THROUGH MONDAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE

IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

* WINDS: SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH ON SUNDAY

NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH. WIND CHILL

VALUES WILL DROP TO ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ARE

EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WITH TEMPERATURES

DROPPING INTO THE TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT...ICE WILL LIKELY FORM ON

ROADS. ROADS MAY BECOME EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS...AND ANYONE

OUTDOORS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR BITTER COLD CONDITIONS.

[Carvers Gap]

Afternoon discussion from Morristown, TN, NWS:

(resembles discussions on the board today...)

THE QUESTION IS WHETHER PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE THE DEEP

MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING EXIT. WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD

AGREEMENT OVERALL...THEIR SOUNDINGS DIFFER IN THE TEMPERATURE

PROFILE BELOW 800 MB...WITH THE GFS BEING NEAR-FREEZING

ISOTHERMAL...AND THE NAM SHOWING A MORE DISTINCT 3C WARM NOSE. LEAN

MORE TOWARD THE NAM GIVEN THE STRONG S-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE

FRONT...BUT IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT COULD BE

HIGHER. TEMPS ALOFT DROP SHARPLY WITH FROPA SUNDAY MORNING...GOING

BELOW FREEZING FIRST IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AROUND 10Z...THEN IN

THE VALLEY AROUND 15Z. HOWEVER THE DRY SLOT CUTS OFF DEEP MOISTURE

SUNDAY MORNING...SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE PRECIP ONCE

THE COLD AIR MOVES IN. THERE COULD BE A COUPLE INCHES OF

ACCUMULATION IN THE MTNS TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A DUSTING IN

THE PLATEAU AND SW VA. ANY SNOW WILL LIKELY BE VERY WET...WITH A LOW

LIQUID/SNOW RATIO.

AS THE DEEP 500 MB CLOSED LOW TRACKS ACROSS KY AND INTO WV

SUNDAY...THE EVENT WILL TRANSITION TO A NW FLOW SNOW EVENT. STEEP

LAPSE RATES UNDER THE LOW WILL GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY

AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NEAR-SATURATION IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE

AND STRENGTHENING NW WINDS WILL MEAN IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR

SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND PERSISTENT SNOW

SHOWERS IN THE VALLEY. WINDS IN THE 900-850 MB LAYER REMAIN BETWEEN

25-35 KTS FROM THE NW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. VERY HIGH

LIQUID/SNOW RATIOS ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH THESE

CONDITIONS. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE LIKELY...AND WIND

ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED

AT TIMES IN THE MTNS. ANOTHER CONCERN IS WIND CHILLS...WHICH WILL BE

IN THE -5 TO -15 RANGE IN THE MTNS AND SW VA.

Personally, I'll be surprised if Kingsport gets more than two inches. We'll see. (edit) Kingsport does much better when a low pressure tracks through central NC. I always find it interesting when Weber City, VA, is under a WSW and Kingsport, TN, is under a WWA. I know it's arbitrary as far as borders and has to do more w/ elevation, but it's still interesting. BTW, those cities sit next to each other. For all intents and purposes, Weber City would be like a northern 'burb to Kingsport.

[rosie]

I just looked at the nam and GFS qpf for just the upslope /wraparound part of the storm..and they are very high. I couldn't believe how much qpf they both generate on the upslope and considering how cold it will be and the ratios, this is going to be one wallop of an upslope. I don't recall how much qpf it forecast on the last event, but this is a lot for an upslope , combined with extreme ratios, and Joe will be digging out once more. Also, snow accum. down to northern Ga as well.

Any accumulation is great!

[FoothillsNC]

Afternoon discussion from Morristown, TN, NWS:

(resembles discussions on the board today...)

THE QUESTION IS WHETHER PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE THE DEEP

MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING EXIT. WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD

AGREEMENT OVERALL...THEIR SOUNDINGS DIFFER IN THE TEMPERATURE

PROFILE BELOW 800 MB...WITH THE GFS BEING NEAR-FREEZING

ISOTHERMAL...AND THE NAM SHOWING A MORE DISTINCT 3C WARM NOSE. LEAN

MORE TOWARD THE NAM GIVEN THE STRONG S-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE

FRONT...BUT IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT COULD BE

HIGHER. TEMPS ALOFT DROP SHARPLY WITH FROPA SUNDAY MORNING...GOING

BELOW FREEZING FIRST IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AROUND 10Z...THEN IN

THE VALLEY AROUND 15Z. HOWEVER THE DRY SLOT CUTS OFF DEEP MOISTURE

SUNDAY MORNING...SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE PRECIP ONCE

THE COLD AIR MOVES IN. THERE COULD BE A COUPLE INCHES OF

ACCUMULATION IN THE MTNS TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A DUSTING IN

THE PLATEAU AND SW VA. ANY SNOW WILL LIKELY BE VERY WET...WITH A LOW

LIQUID/SNOW RATIO.

AS THE DEEP 500 MB CLOSED LOW TRACKS ACROSS KY AND INTO WV

SUNDAY...THE EVENT WILL TRANSITION TO A NW FLOW SNOW EVENT. STEEP

LAPSE RATES UNDER THE LOW WILL GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY

AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NEAR-SATURATION IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE

AND STRENGTHENING NW WINDS WILL MEAN IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR

SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND PERSISTENT SNOW

SHOWERS IN THE VALLEY. WINDS IN THE 900-850 MB LAYER REMAIN BETWEEN

25-35 KTS FROM THE NW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. VERY HIGH

LIQUID/SNOW RATIOS ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH THESE

CONDITIONS. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE LIKELY...AND WIND

ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED

AT TIMES IN THE MTNS. ANOTHER CONCERN IS WIND CHILLS...WHICH WILL BE

IN THE -5 TO -15 RANGE IN THE MTNS AND SW VA.

Morristown is on the ball with this. Great write up, and I strongly agree. Gonna be some near blizzard conditions in east and ne Tenn as well with this one. The 7h and 5H feature both plow right across thCumberland Plateau enroute to western NC, coinciding with some very strong lift and a fully saturated moisture depth. Should be quite an event.

[Carvers Gap]

Morristown is on the ball with this. Great write up, and I strongly agree. Gonna be some near blizzard conditions in east and ne Tenn as well with this one. The 7h and 5H feature both plow right across thCumberland Plateau enroute to western NC, coinciding with some very strong lift and a fully saturated moisture depth. Should be quite an event.

Though I'm not really qualified to compliment folks who do this for a living, I thought it was a great write-up as well.

[tnweathernut]

Morristown is on the ball with this. Great write up, and I strongly agree. Gonna be some near blizzard conditions in east and ne Tenn as well with this one. The 7h and 5H feature both plow right across thCumberland Plateau enroute to western NC, coinciding with some very strong lift and a fully saturated moisture depth. Should be quite an event.

Their write-up is excellent, but there is a difference in their forecast and their "advisory" vs. a winter storm warning. Unless I misunderstand the criteria required their wording suggest we should be under a winter storm warning, but their forecast is for a winter weather advisory. (speaking for the NE TN valleys) Maybe 3-6 no longer qualifies the valleys for a WSW. What am I missing?