WXinCanton Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 I think I might do a short chase tomorrow if it looks good. Go up to Pickens county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 sorry but when does the 12z come out? thank you in advance. =) http://www.daculaweather.com/dacula_model_update.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 http://www.daculawea...odel_update.php wow that helps alot! thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Buddy, good to see ya posting again. Im calling for an inch or more for the valley with 2-4" above 3500'. Im really curious to see how the initial front reacts with these marginal setups. If we get a good coating then we are game for nice (anything is nice for Jackson) accumulations from the NW flow setup. You will do much better than I as you are up Buff but still I think we all do well out this setup. Great writeup and looking forward to your obs. O also I almost forgot, I will put out a snow map this afternoon on the site (around 3pm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 06z NAM run came in colder for western NC. Right now Asheville's wetbulb is 27, Boone's is 24. I know they're going to rise today, but theres always been shown a cold pocket aloft , as well as surface, remaining there. Still think the prefrontal precip somewhere in there will be mostly snow, several quick inches. You still think so, huh? GSP is definitely not on board with that scenario and has mentioned (as have other offices) that the cold GFS is an outlier. From my experience, the warm nose is almost always underestimated in the mountains, so I think the frontal precip will be rain changing to snow. Sure would be nice to see all snow, though. Here's the million dollar question. If the NAM has been trending colder towards the GFS, then that may change everything! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 NWS- Gives me rain tonight with lows in the low 30's ? You would think they would mention ice/snow mix possible when predicting low 30's ? .TONIGHT...CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. .SUNDAY...RAIN. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. .SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE EVENING. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 50 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 10 ABOVE. .MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. BLUSTERY AND COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 4 ABOVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 I'm liking this picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Considering GSP hasn't issued any watches or warnings, not even so much as an advisory, this must be a nonevent. I'll tell my grandmother to go ahead and travel 35 miles to Asheville Monday morning for her doctors appointment. Looking forward to maybe something down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Considering GSP hasn't issued any watches or warnings, not even so much as an advisory, this must be a nonevent. I'll tell my grandmother to go ahead and travel 35 miles to Asheville Monday morning for her doctors appointment. Looking forward to maybe something down the road. They will issue them when it gets underway. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Classic joe. So what were you forested last week? What did you end up with? Need to invent a NWSF drinking game. Ever 1" that Joe Gets, you gots to drink 12oz of something Considering GSP hasn't issued any watches or warnings, not even so much as an advisory, this must be a nonevent. I'll tell my grandmother to go ahead and travel 35 miles to Asheville Monday morning for her doctors appointment. Looking forward to maybe something down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 NWS- Gives me rain tonight with lows in the low 30's ? You would think they would mention ice/snow mix possible when predicting low 30's ? similar here - 100% chance of rain and low to mid 30s lol. obviously i was hoping this morning for that extra few degree lowering but didnt happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 You still think so, huh? GSP is definitely not on board with that scenario and has mentioned (as have other offices) that the cold GFS is an outlier. From my experience, the warm nose is almost always underestimated in the mountains, so I think the frontal precip will be rain changing to snow. Sure would be nice to see all snow, though. Here's the million dollar question. If the NAM has been trending colder towards the GFS, then that may change everything! Well I never committed, but have been watching this possibility for about 3 days now, and just always like to keep options open and watch/mention the possibility. Its hard to say who and where. Also, the same fears about the warm nose I definitely recall from about this time last year, not sure if it was you, but I do remember on the big Dec 18 event the same worries there. I'm not a forecaster who goes explicitly by soundings verbatim but always look at the big picture. The *possibility* is there, but not definite. I'll be honest, most of the 4" + snow events in Western NC aren't forecast ahead of time. I've lived and watched the wx here all my life, and know that to be true. Just because GSP is not on board doesn't preclude snow around here. That said, I haven't even begun to look at any 12z stuff yet, and will probably eat all these words Considering GSP hasn't issued any watches or warnings, not even so much as an advisory, this must be a nonevent. I'll tell my grandmother to go ahead and travel 35 miles to Asheville Monday morning for her doctors appointment. Looking forward to maybe something down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 FFC at least admitts the uncertainty of which way to go... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 825 AM EST SAT DEC 11 2010 .UPDATE... THINGS STILL ON TRACK FOR A WET SATURDAY NIGHT THEN TURNING WINDY AND COLDER SUNDAY WITH AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS THAT COULD ACCUMULATE OVER PARTS OF FAR N GA IF THE MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS VERY UNCERTAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Buddy, good to see ya posting again. Im calling for an inch or more for the valley with 2-4" above 3500'. Im really curious to see how the initial front reacts with these marginal setups. If we get a good coating then we are game for nice (anything is nice for Jackson) accumulations from the NW flow setup. You will do much better than I as you are up Buff but still I think we all do well out this setup. Great writeup and looking forward to your obs. O also I almost forgot, I will put out a snow map this afternoon on the site (around 3pm). Yea I suspect I'll end up just fine. I'm about 1/2 mile up the road from the 'snow line' as I call it up this road. Basically about halfway up Buff, the snow sticks before it sticks anywhere else. I suspect I could end up with 4" IMBY (presuming the system doesn't just dissappear) but I'm a bit of an anomaly for the area, as I'm downslope from Blackrock, and I get some significant spillover occasionally even from upslope. Looking cold and grey out right now, and I will note that there is ice already on the road in places (down near the end of Buff someone spilled some water on the road last night, and its an ice sheet at the intersection) so I don't think with the road temps we're going to have ANY problem with snow sticking if it does fall. Like you said if we can get a nice quick burst at the start to coat things, any light snow after that are going to be gravy and additive. Add to that, Monday is going to be COLD. We're apparently barely going to break into the 20s, so whatever falls will be here for a day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 FFC at least admitts the uncertainty of which way to go... .UPDATE... THINGS STILL ON TRACK FOR A WET SATURDAY NIGHT THEN TURNING WINDY AND COLDER SUNDAY WITH AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS THAT COULD ACCUMULATE OVER PARTS OF FAR N GA IF THE MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS VERY UNCERTAIN. I love all the potential here, but we've lived here an awful long time to know that seeing accumulating snow from wraparound moisture pretty much never happens. I just can't see it happening. Hate to be pessimistic though, maybe we'll get some kind of weird early Christmas surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Classic joe. So what were you forested last week? What did you end up with? Need to invent a NWSF drinking game. Ever 1" that Joe Gets, you gots to drink 12oz of something LOL, I'll play !!! We'll call it Snow Pong. I ended up with 18 inches but was never upgraded out of a WWA. I think their new guidelines for a storm warning is 30 inches of snow, storm surge of 10+ feet, hurricane force winds, and 200 expected casualties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 FFC at least admitts the uncertainty of which way to go... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 825 AM EST SAT DEC 11 2010 .UPDATE... THINGS STILL ON TRACK FOR A WET SATURDAY NIGHT THEN TURNING WINDY AND COLDER SUNDAY WITH AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS THAT COULD ACCUMULATE OVER PARTS OF FAR N GA IF THE MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS VERY UNCERTAIN. This could bust either way...more likely the mountains get very little but this will be a very close call for higher elevations with upper level temps just a hair above freezing during the bulk of the precip and sfc temps in the low-mid 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 I love all the potential here, but we've lived here an awful long time to know that seeing accumulating snow from wraparound moisture pretty much never happens. I just can't see it happening. Hate to be pessimistic though, maybe we'll get some kind of weird early Christmas surprise. You are 100% correct. Just one time I would like for it to work out. One thing is for sure, the models have advertised it for a quite a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Classic joe. So what were you forested last week? What did you end up with? Need to invent a NWSF drinking game. Ever 1" that Joe Gets, you gots to drink 12oz of something Thats a big 10-4 word to the big bird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 LOL, I'll play !!! We'll call it Snow Pong. I ended up with 18 inches but was never upgraded out of a WWA. I think their new guidelines for a storm warning is 30 inches of snow, storm surge of 10+ feet, hurricane force winds, and 200 expected casualties. And we rag on FFC for hesitating to upgrade us to a warning when 2-4" falls You look to do well up there the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Looking borderline @24hrs on the 12z NAM, but the moisture looks a little heavier vs the 6z @ 30hrs. I don't see how the northern mountains aren't going to get plowed, though. WWA up for boone, but that's to be expected. Surely this qualifies for Advisory conditions over most of WNC though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 This is some serious wrap around: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Buddy, That's when you can get the good snows. You got to smell the rain to get the good snow (so they say ) I'll trade local's with you on this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 This is some serious wrap around: the nam has a very cold pool and strong 5H feature wrapping around the main upper low late Sunday into Monday . There's almost no way for it "not" to snow in Ga with this, all models have had it to some degree, and usually a ULL tracking this way gets some wrap around there, so I'm still confident of snow showers in central Tn, northern third of Alabama and down to ATL in GA, but more will be around in the northeast part of Ala, and nw Ga, until it all tapers more for the Upslope regions. Who knows if theres enough to accumulate, I'd think 1" or even a few spots of 2" are very possible in N. Ga most likely the Nw section. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 the nam has a very cold pool and strong 5H feature wrapping around the main upper low late Sunday into Monday . There's almost no way for it "not" to snow in Ga with this, all models have had it to some degree, and usually a ULL tracking this way gets some wrap around there, so I'm still confident of snow showers in central Tn, northern third of Alabama and down to ATL in GA, but more will be around in the northeast part of Ala, and nw Ga, until it all tapers more for the Upslope regions. Who knows if theres enough to accumulate, I'd think 1" or even a few spots of 2" are very possible in N. Ga most likely the Nw section. Would you say the snow shower activity will be mainly limited to north of I-85 (due to downslope) or will there be enough moisture to overcome this to some extent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 NAM has been pretty consistant with this system, too, since the 0z run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 That might be a good idea Bill. Something they also need to remember is that even though the valleys might not get the foot of snow, you have to traverse areas that do. Take a good friend of mine that lives just a couple of miles from me. He lives down on the Toe river at about 2800 feet and rarely gets much flow snow and is always much warmer that me. But, to get to Burnsville (our only town in the county) he'll cross three ridges that are 4k+. So even high elevation snow affects all of us no matter where you live here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Would you say the snow shower activity will be mainly limited to north of I-85 (due to downslope) or will there be enough moisture to overcome this to some extent? probably remaining north and west of 85, but a few flakes are possible, really anywhere east of the Apps with such strong winds, but not much at all. Just a novelty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 do any of you think i will see any snow shower activity here in rockingham county nc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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