Potential December 12th-13th threat

[snowman22]

NWS down here has 50 degrees and Sunny but, i dont agree. I think it will be Cloudy with the Occasional Flurries with Temps in the 30-45 range. Just my opinion and also if this -NAO countinues, it could be a very cold winter. Hopefully we can get a Feb. 12 down here.

[K4CF]

I really can't speak for them. Not sure why their waiting , but I would think in the night shift they put up a watch or an advisory. Its hard to see the upcoming event not requiring a watch or atleast an advisory by tomorrow morning. Forecasting snow amounts is always tricky, but in this event, I think everyone knows theres going to be several inches at the very minimum for the northern mountain counties...however forecasting in Bumcombe Co. is always harder to do because of the unique geography. Some upslope works, some don't, and for various parts of the county it can change from 1" to several. In an arctic outbreak like this, usually all of the mountain counties get some accumulation. I'm expecting advisory levels in Asheville, and blizzard warnings in Avery before its all over with Tuesday evening.

I know it's curse word around here, but accuweather says there's "3.2 inches of snow on the way" for me when it's all over on Monday....here in northern Mitchell county, NC

[BullCityWx]

NWS down here has 50 degrees and Sunny but, i dont agree. I think it will be Cloudy with the Occasional Flurries with Temps in the 30-45 range. Just my opinion and also if this -NAO countinues, it could be a very cold winter. Hopefully we can get a Feb. 12 down here.

Any particular reason why you disagree?

At no point is the KMGM sounding's close to snow until the moisture is long gone.

[tnweathernut]

I know it's curse word around here, but accuweather says there's "3.2 inches of snow on the way" for me when it's all over on Monday....here in northern Mitchell county, NC

It's beyond a curse word, it's the kiss of death. I have NEVER, and I repeat........................NEVER seen their forcast turn out right here in Johnson City. For the record, we will have yet another opportunity for that forecast to be right. They are predicting 5.2 inches here.

[Wild Weather Monger]

Of note, practically all of the 18z GFS ensemble members have substantially more QPF behind the front in the SE. Makes the OP a bit of an outlier at only 42 hours.

http://raleighwx.ame...rs/18zf042.html

For the Atlanta area, the backside snow showers will be moving in from a west to wnw trajectory which usually allows the snow/flurries to make it further east into N Central Ga. 330 true flow or more, is the kiss of death for MBY, so am liking my chances of a Sunday evening flizzard.

[jrips27]

Accufail is giving me 1.9" of snow on Sunday

[snowman22]

Accufail is giving me 1.9" of snow on Sunday

If accuweather was a student it would have an F everytime.

[NEGa]

Of note, practically all of the 18z GFS ensemble members have substantially more QPF behind the front in the SE. Makes the OP a bit of an outlier at only 42 hours.

http://raleighwx.ame...rs/18zf042.html

For the Atlanta area, the backside snow showers will be moving in from a west to wnw trajectory which usually allows the snow/flurries to make it further east into N Central Ga. 330 true flow or more, is the kiss of death for MBY, so am liking my chances of a Sunday evening flizzard.

where are you located?

[Wild Weather Monger]

where are you located?

Loganville. Roughly 30-40 miles east of Downtown Atlanta.

[FoothillsNC]

the 00Z GFS is still maintaining 2m temps at or below freezing over most of western NC, even right into extreme northern tier of Ga. I kind of figured it would with such a cool beginning anyway, and the 850's have pockets of 0 over the NC mountains, and at 925 at at 24 and 30 hours. What is pretty amazing to watch is the crashing height field. It happens so incredibly fast with the approach of that intensifying trough, about the fastest I can ever remember seeing it happen.

That said, I would not at all be suprised, like I said last night, about this being a dump of snow, not rain, in places of the mountains, maybe all of them, even into Ga I wouldnt be shocked. In fact the more I think about this entire setup, with such close soundings, I'd put that in the forecast. For n. Ga mountains up into Tenn and NC mountains as well...a very distinct possibility of this being a rain to snow very quick scenario. Some places probably starting as snow. If I had the chance, think I'd go on a chase. If you miss the front end snow, you'd get into a few hours later anyway, but heavy synoptic snow is my favorite...and I'm almost positive now some place in the Apps will get just that....a 6" pasting on the front end, with nice big wet flakes.

[NCSNOW]

look at gfs from 30 hour to 36 hour. mybe Big frosty can get lucky again>.

hour 30

hour 36

Looks like moisture and cold arrive at sametime up in northern f-hills/mtns.

[NEGa]

the 00Z GFS is still maintaining 2m temps at or below freezing over most of western NC, even right into extreme northern tier of Ga. I kind of figured it would with such a cool beginning anyway, and the 850's have pockets of 0 over the NC mountains, and at 925 at at 24 and 30 hours. What is pretty amazing to watch is the crashing height field. It happens so incredibly fast with the approach of that intensifying trough, about the fastest I can ever remember seeing it happen.

That said, I would not at all be suprised, like I said last night, about this being a dump of snow, not rain, in places of the mountains, maybe all of them, even into Ga I wouldnt be shocked. In fact the more I think about this entire setup, with such close soundings, I'd put that in the forecast. For n. Ga mountains up into Tenn and NC mountains as well...a very distinct possibility of this being a rain to snow very quick scenario. Some places probably starting as snow. If I had the chance, think I'd go on a chase. If you miss the front end snow, you'd get into a few hours later anyway, but heavy synoptic snow is my favorite...and I'm almost positive now some place in the Apps will get just that....a 6" pasting on the front end, with nice big wet flakes.

depending on how things play out i am certainly thinking about this, esp since the road trip to chase would be less than 50 miles more or less and/or 30 min - 1 hour. the magical line looks to be just north of mby (of course, i wouldnt expect anything less ) but if its within a county and nothing is happening here i will certainly head out to see some snow

weenie comment: so i am assuming the lack of any obs means the echos in ga are virga? its below freezing now so it would be nice to see something reach the ground :end weenie comment

[Lookout]

The last few runs of the nam, including the 0z run, really is showing a fair amount of snow shower/flurry activity over the favored areas of western georgia/mountains, and alabama. The 0z nam radar composite looks pretty decent. As usual though, at best probably only a chance of a few brief flurries here due to the curse of downslope.

[Weather Czar]

the 00Z GFS is still maintaining 2m temps at or below freezing over most of western NC, even right into extreme northern tier of Ga. I kind of figured it would with such a cool beginning anyway, and the 850's have pockets of 0 over the NC mountains, and at 925 at at 24 and 30 hours. What is pretty amazing to watch is the crashing height field. It happens so incredibly fast with the approach of that intensifying trough, about the fastest I can ever remember seeing it happen.

That said, I would not at all be suprised, like I said last night, about this being a dump of snow, not rain, in places of the mountains, maybe all of them, even into Ga I wouldnt be shocked. In fact the more I think about this entire setup, with such close soundings, I'd put that in the forecast. For n. Ga mountains up into Tenn and NC mountains as well...a very distinct possibility of this being a rain to snow very quick scenario. Some places probably starting as snow. If I had the chance, think I'd go on a chase. If you miss the front end snow, you'd get into a few hours later anyway, but heavy synoptic snow is my favorite...and I'm almost positive now some place in the Apps will get just that....a 6" pasting on the front end, with nice big wet flakes.

And a lot of sleet it looks like for my area along with snow and some rain.

[NEGa]

The last few runs of the nam, including the 0z run, really is showing a fair amount of snow shower/flurry activity over the favored areas of western georgia/mountains, and alabama. The 0z nam radar composite looks pretty decent. As usual though, at best probably only a chance of a few brief flurries here due to the curse of downslope.

wow, that really demonstrated the dreaded downslope effect in ne ga!!! for a cad or good old fashioned n ga winter storm mby is great. for these events its just torture lol

i really really hate those stupid snow depth maps. and i really really hate that i have no self control to not look at them since i know how bad they are. the 0z gfs is putting down snow imby now for starting at hour 30 - 33 you'd think i would learn, esp at my age. and yet here i am year after year (i love any extreme wx, which is nice, but winter is of course my favorite)

[BullCityWx]

Date: 48 hour AVN valid 0Z MON 13 DEC 10
Station: 35.31,-81.23
Latitude:   35.31
Longitude: -81.23
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
    mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 0 1000   -20                                                                 
SFC  966   254  -1.8  -3.7  87  1.9  -2.4 250  14 274.1 274.6 272.5 282.3  3.01
 2  950   389  -2.1  -5.3  78  3.3  -3.2 255  25 275.1 275.6 272.6 282.6  2.70
 3  900   818  -4.1  -9.3  67  5.2  -5.8 275  32 277.3 277.6 273.0 283.2  2.09
 4  850  1266  -6.9 -12.5  65  5.5  -8.5 282  36 278.9 279.2 273.3 283.8  1.72
 5  800  1736  -9.7 -13.8  72  4.1 -10.9 278  33 280.8 281.1 274.3 285.5  1.64
 6  750  2232 -12.5 -14.9  82  2.4 -13.1 269  26 283.0 283.3 275.5 287.7  1.60
 7  700  2756 -15.4 -17.0  87  1.7 -15.7 255  25 285.5 285.7 276.5 289.8  1.44
 8  650  3313 -17.4 -19.9  80  2.6 -17.9 238  33 289.3 289.6 278.2 293.0  1.21
 9  600  3910 -20.2 -24.4  69  4.3 -21.0 231  41 292.8 292.9 279.3 295.5  0.88
10  550  4549 -24.7 -32.0  51  7.3 -25.7 228  45 294.8 294.9 279.7 296.3  0.48
11  500  5236 -29.1 -40.0  34 10.9 -30.1 227  50 297.6 297.6 280.6 298.4  0.24
12  450  5982 -33.2 -47.1  24 13.9 -34.1 225  55 301.6 301.6 282.2 302.0  0.12
13  400  6802 -36.8 -54.3  15 17.5 -37.7 221  61 307.1 307.2 284.3 307.4  0.06
14  350  7721 -38.9 -59.6   9 20.7 -39.7 217  68 316.3 316.3 287.6 316.4  0.04
15  300  8775 -41.0 -61.7   9 20.7 -41.8 219  73 327.5 327.5 291.0 327.6  0.03
16  250 10003 -44.4 -63.7  10 19.3 -45.0 220  69 340.0 340.0 294.4 340.2  0.03
17  200 11488 -47.4 -67.4   8 20.0 -48.0 221  75 357.7 357.7 298.2 357.8  0.02
18  150 13370 -51.1 -73.3   5 22.2 -51.7 239  73 382.0 382.0 302.6 382.1  0.01
19  100 15988 -55.0 -82.1   2 27.1 -55.5 231  50 421.4 421.4 307.9 421.5  0.00
TRP                                             0                              
WND                                             0                              

Date: 54 hour AVN valid 6Z MON 13 DEC 10
Station: 35.31,-81.23
Latitude:   35.31
Longitude: -81.23
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
    mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 0 1000   -19                                                                 
SFC  966   254  -4.2  -5.8  89  1.6  -4.7 232  13 271.6 272.1 270.3 278.6  2.56
 2  950   386  -4.6  -7.0  83  2.4  -5.4 238  23 272.5 272.9 270.6 279.1  2.37
 3  900   812  -5.2 -10.1  68  4.9  -6.7 266  27 276.2 276.5 272.1 281.7  1.97
 4  850  1258  -7.7 -11.3  75  3.6  -8.8 288  38 278.1 278.4 273.1 283.5  1.89
 5  800  1728 -10.1 -13.8  74  3.7 -11.1 294  41 280.4 280.7 274.1 285.2  1.65
 6  750  2222 -13.4 -16.7  76  3.2 -14.2 295  40 282.0 282.2 274.6 286.1  1.38
 7  700  2743 -17.8 -19.0  90  1.2 -18.1 294  41 282.7 282.9 274.8 286.3  1.21
 8  650  3294 -20.3 -21.3  92  1.0 -20.5 287  35 286.0 286.2 276.3 289.3  1.08
 9  600  3885 -22.1 -24.2  83  2.1 -22.5 269  34 290.5 290.7 278.3 293.3  0.90
10  550  4520 -26.0 -28.3  81  2.3 -26.3 261  39 293.3 293.4 279.3 295.4  0.68
11  500  5202 -31.1 -33.4  80  2.3 -31.3 258  42 295.2 295.2 279.8 296.7  0.46
12  450  5941 -36.1 -39.7  69  3.6 -36.4 254  46 297.9 297.9 280.8 298.8  0.27
13  400  6750 -40.5 -46.7  51  6.2 -40.8 251  50 302.4 302.4 282.5 302.9  0.14
14  350  7655 -42.0 -56.2  20 14.2 -42.5 248  51 312.2 312.2 286.2 312.4  0.05
15  300  8701 -41.4 -62.2   9 20.8 -42.2 243  50 327.0 327.0 290.9 327.1  0.03
16  250  9931 -43.9 -63.5  10 19.5 -44.6 244  50 340.8 340.8 294.6 340.9  0.03
17  200 11418 -47.2 -68.0   7 20.9 -47.8 236  52 358.1 358.1 298.3 358.2  0.02
18  150 13308 -49.4 -75.9   3 26.4 -50.1 247  54 384.9 384.9 303.1 384.9  0.01
19  100 15946 -53.2 -82.1   2 28.9 -53.8 242  46 425.0 425.0 308.3 425.0  0.00
TRP                                             0                              
WND                                             0                          

Looks decent for wraparound flurries here on Sunday Evening.

[FoothillsNC]

wow, that really demonstrated the dreaded downslope effect in ne ga!!! for a cad or good old fashioned n ga winter storm mby is great. for these events its just torture lol

i really really hate those stupid snow depth maps. and i really really hate that i have no self control to not look at them since i know how bad they are. the 0z gfs is putting down snow imby now for starting at hour 30 - 33 you'd think i would learn, esp at my age. and yet here i am year after year (i love any extreme wx, which is nice, but winter is of course my favorite)

you'll end up with decent snow showers if nothing else. Not out of the question you turn over to snow pretty quickly after midnight tomorrow night either. Whats your elevation?

[Lookout]

the 00Z GFS is still maintaining 2m temps at or below freezing over most of western NC, even right into extreme northern tier of Ga. I kind of figured it would with such a cool beginning anyway, and the 850's have pockets of 0 over the NC mountains, and at 925 at at 24 and 30 hours. What is pretty amazing to watch is the crashing height field. It happens so incredibly fast with the approach of that intensifying trough, about the fastest I can ever remember seeing it happen.

That said, I would not at all be suprised, like I said last night, about this being a dump of snow, not rain, in places of the mountains, maybe all of them, even into Ga I wouldnt be shocked. In fact the more I think about this entire setup, with such close soundings, I'd put that in the forecast. For n. Ga mountains up into Tenn and NC mountains as well...a very distinct possibility of this being a rain to snow very quick scenario. Some places probably starting as snow. If I had the chance, think I'd go on a chase. If you miss the front end snow, you'd get into a few hours later anyway, but heavy synoptic snow is my favorite...and I'm almost positive now some place in the Apps will get just that....a 6" pasting on the front end, with nice big wet flakes.

Pretty big differences between the nam/gfs for asheville. Nam is clearly all rain. Not even close. Gfs though is almost surely all snow (especially given precip rates with only 850mb temps of less than 1c with all other levels subfreezing). The folks at gsp might have a headache with this one.

[NEGa]

you'll end up with decent snow showers if nothing else. Not out of the question you turn over to snow pretty quickly after midnight tomorrow night either. Whats your elevation?

sure would be nice - yeah i am being a bit anal and zooming in as close as i can, realizing that the models cant really resolve within the short distance that it would be to affect this area. its looking to be awfully close right now. my elevation is probably just under 1800' (which is nothing on nc and up towards white county the county over and the one that downslopes me ) but is usually enough to do the trick in cads hands down, and many times for close events like this weekend. but its always a pins and needles time

[FoothillsNC]

Pretty big differences between the nam/gfs for asheville. Nam is clearly all rain. Not even close. Gfs though is almost surely all snow (especially given precip rates with only 850mb temps of less than 1c with all other levels subfreezing). The folks at gsp might have a headache with this one.

yeah its aclose one. Could go either way. I'd lean to a pretty rapid changeover in Asheville. Probably 95% snow in Boone. The setup screams collapsing heights which in marginal situations, always turns to snow very very fast. And the prettiest snow there is too..the huge wet flakes.

[Marion_NC_WX]

Guys, I've been gone all day so this is my first look at the latest data. The models still show a free fall Sunday Night with little temp movement during the day Monday. The 18z GFS shows us struggling to his 20 Monday, yet I see the NWS zone forecast like this...

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDY. COLDER WITH LOWS AROUND 20.

NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

.MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY AND WINDY. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 20S. LOWS 10 TO 15.

I guess the folks in Greer are not buying it yet or they're waiting to a near nowcast thing when it comes to forecast temps.

[NEGa]

Pretty big differences between the nam/gfs for asheville. Nam is clearly all rain. Not even close. Gfs though is almost surely all snow (especially given precip rates with only 850mb temps of less than 1c with all other levels subfreezing). The folks at gsp might have a headache with this one.

thats why i didnt say anything earlier when people were talking about the watches. what do you do? its a catch 22. the 0z nam looks bad but the 0z gfs looks better. i wouldnt want to have to be issuing a forecast for gsp's zone for sure

[FoothillsNC]

Middle of the day Wednesday and this run has precip already in n. Alabama and Tenn, and by dark in N Ga. Still a frigid day with ZR, verbatim in those areas. The precip should scoot back in quickly.

[tnweathernut]

yeah its aclose one. Could go either way. I'd lean to a pretty rapid changeover in Asheville. Probably 95% snow in Boone. The setup screams collapsing heights which in marginal situations, always turns to snow very very fast. And the prettiest snow there is too..the huge wet flakes.

Foothills..............what is your opinion of frontal snow here in northeast TN? I am fascinated that there could be frontal snow anywhere with the low pressure up in the great lakes. Absolutely amazing. Thanks in advance for your response.

[FoothillsNC]

Foothills..............what is your opinion of frontal snow here in northeast TN? I am fascinated that there could be frontal snow anywhere with the low pressure up in the great lakes. Absolutely amazing. Thanks in advance for your response.

your area would go over pretty quickly, enough to atleast make half of the main precip shield be in the form of snow. The collapsing height field should do the trick.

[NCSNOW]

Middle of the day Wednesday and this run has precip already in n. Alabama and Tenn, and by dark in N Ga. Still a frigid day with ZR, verbatim in those areas. The precip should scoot back in quickly.

only out to 114, but gfs paints perfect pic of your annalysis.

[Weather Czar]

Check out the RGEM for WNC Just what Robert was talking about

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_R1_north@america_I_QPFTYPES_t6_036.png

[FoothillsNC]

only out to 114, but gfs paints perfect pic of your annalysis.

Still puzzling what happens after Wedn. night..how quickly do we go above freezing at the surface? GFS still has southerly winds slowly scouring out the cold air, the main low gets to central Kentucky, and the western Carolinas are still subfreezing but climbing. At some point Thursday we will get above 32, but probably not all that quickly. Remember east of the mountains, once low level cold is in, its really hard to get it out..but over time and with those southeast or south winds,we will...but probably after we've been coated nicely with some icing. Still so far out to watch, but wetbulbs are likely going to start very low in Ala, Tenn and Ga Wednesday, som I'm very positive they will get started on the icing then, not sure when it gets to the Carolinas.

[griteater]

If you miss the front end snow, you'd get into a few hours later anyway, but heavy synoptic snow is my favorite...and I'm almost positive now some place in the Apps will get just that....a 6" pasting on the front end, with nice big wet flakes.

The other thing that's nice about synoptic snow is that it's not so flippin cold and windy as what will occur with the upslope snow beginning Sunday night.

[DLI4SCwx]

Foothills...I was curious on what your thoughts were about our chances for some winter weather towards the end of the month. Do you see the possibility of something "brewing" down the pike?